Gallup’s chief economist: The big drop in the unemployment rate should be discounted
His bottom line: “The Household results should be discounted. … The obvious conclusion is that a new employment measure is needed.”
Jacobe’s preferred measure is one Gallup has created, Payroll to Population, or P2P. It is simply “the number of Americans employed full-time for an employer as a percentage of the U.S. population.” P2P is based on 30,000 phone interviews a month. And what did the P2P show for September? This: “The P2P deteriorated slightly to 45.1% in September from 45.3% in August, suggesting the real jobs situation was essentially unchanged last month.”
Here’s why I like this idea: The Gallup measure more or less reflects — accurately I think — what we see in other broad measures such as the labor force participation rate and the civilian-employment ratio. They show a depressed labor market, not one suddenly gaining huge momentum.
Blowback
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One one hand, we added 873,000 jobs
One the other hand, we added 114,000 job
So, you see, it’s sortof sleight of hand.
faraway on October 8, 2012 at 1:56 PM
Something needs to change with that nonsense.
forest on October 8, 2012 at 1:56 PM
No Sh** Sherlock! 800,000+ jobs with a GDP that is approaching 0%, best in 29 years forces rate down to 7.8%. Not even remotely possible!
reddevil on October 8, 2012 at 1:57 PM
I called this many months ago. I said the administration and media would “massage the data” and end up with just under 8% just before the election, plus gas just under $3.50/gal. Still waiting for the latter. Looks like response to the California gas crisis will do the needful. Watch Obama tap the SPR.
Christien on October 8, 2012 at 1:58 PM
Unfortunately, Obama has that 7.8% tucked in tight and running in an open field.
he just does not know which way to run.
Jabberwock on October 8, 2012 at 1:59 PM
Surprising hearing this from an organization that’s being sued by the DOJ and threatened by the Obamuh campaign thugs.
stukinIL4now on October 8, 2012 at 2:00 PM
Let me translate:
It was a lie.
spiritof61 on October 8, 2012 at 2:00 PM
It is a matter of refining capacity that drives the price right now, not the price of oil. The SPR is a limp wrist attack on prices at this point. The government stops refining of oil to the point that there is no where near enough natural competition in the market to keep prices low.
astonerii on October 8, 2012 at 2:03 PM
Yup. That’s it, this was the final shot. I don’t think there are any more metrics coming out that could help Obama. He’s got one month and two debates to sell this thing on his own.
The only card I can imagine him has up his sleeve right now is the war card.
WeekendAtBernankes on October 8, 2012 at 2:10 PM
Yep I sold Clinton’s old underwear I bought at Goodwill and sold it on ebay. There ya go. Job created.
CW on October 8, 2012 at 2:12 PM
New respect for Gallup.
petefrt on October 8, 2012 at 2:13 PM
Atomic Bomb.
Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 2:20 PM
I knew they’d push the <8% lie in Sept-Oct. Their real dilemma was whether 7.9% was too obvious a fudge or whether 7.8 would make it look like they were just trying to avoid the obvious 7.9 fudge. As always, their desperation and the bigger lie won.
Christien on October 8, 2012 at 2:21 PM
Darn you for stealing my comment!
blink on October 8, 2012 at 2:22 PM
That bogus employment report would be like Gallup coming out with a poll that shows Obama 15 points ahead of Romney. It’s not possible in light of all the other polling data. The data is corrupted in some way. You either find the errors in your sampling and correct them or throw away the data and do another survey.
Wigglesworth on October 8, 2012 at 2:31 PM
That was exactly my reaction. You can just imagine the conversation:
“I dunno, 7.9 just looks too obvious. I say we go with 7.8.”
“Works for me.”
Missy on October 8, 2012 at 2:31 PM
I expect a lot more people and institutions “discounting” the fake report.
dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 2:39 PM
I’m sure Pauline Krugman will be checking in shortly.
BTW Krugman tried to grow a beard. It’s hilarious. Makes him look like Rip van Winkle.
Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 2:45 PM
Eh, still looks trollish or hobbit-ish to me…
Lando Jones on October 8, 2012 at 2:52 PM
I think that we should honour GumbyandPokey by reposting his comment. Hopefully, he’ll be so moved that he will get around to answering my questions!
7.8% unemployment is an atomic bomb number?
Riddle me this, Yoda, if the economy really added 873,000 jobs in September — which would be the biggest one month job increase in 29 years (and in November 1983 the annualised GDP was 8.5% while it is a mere 1.3% today) — but employers only reported an additional 114,000 jobs last month, why isn’t the IRS all over those 759,000 people who told the BLS on the telephone that they had found work because someone isn’t paying payroll taxes and meeting other reporting requirements?
Also, didn’t the Obama administration promise that, if we passed the Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Stimulus Act of 2009, unemployment would be 7.8% in September 2009 and 5.6% in September 2012?
(Not holding my breath)
Resist We Much on October 8, 2012 at 3:01 PM
It has been said (can’t remember where I heard it first) that Leftists grow beards because they’re unable to look at themselves in the mirror long enough to shave.
I believe it was first said about Paul Begala during the Clinton years, but it’s definitely true of the psychotic, lying, shifty-eyed Paul Krugman.
UltimateBob on October 8, 2012 at 3:01 PM
If The Ferret Speaks To An Empty Room, Does He Make A Sound?
Resist We Much on October 8, 2012 at 3:03 PM
I handed out fliers wearing a chicken suit. Job created.
RedRedRice on October 8, 2012 at 3:11 PM
Ha ! If he speaks to a full room, does he make any sense ?
Jabberwock on October 8, 2012 at 3:13 PM
Maybe not, but it is a ‘job created’.
StompUDead on October 8, 2012 at 3:28 PM
Out: 46 consecutive mos with UE over 8%
In : 46 consecutive mos with UE averaging over 8%
////////////////////////////////////
and Obama wants to run with it, REALLY? Epic fail.
hillsoftx on October 8, 2012 at 3:28 PM
MYSTERY SOLVED!!!
The Obamacrats are reporting “B.J.’s”!!!!
landlines on October 8, 2012 at 4:20 PM
Atomic Wedgie?
ShadowsPawn on October 8, 2012 at 5:13 PM