Networks, AP cancel exit polls in 19 states
The National Election Pool — a joint venture of the major television networks and The Associated Press — has not announced the states that won’t be included, but the decision is sure to cause some pain to election watchers across the country.
Voters in the excluded states will still be interviewed as part of a national exit poll, but state-level estimates of the partisan, age or racial makeups of electorates won’t be available as they have been since 1992. The lack of data may hamper election night analyses in some states, and it will almost certainly limit post-election research for years to come.
A growing number of voters casting early ballots has added to the complexity of carrying out surveys in 50 states, the District of Columbia and nationally. In more and more states it has become crucial to supplement in-person precinct polling with relatively costly telephone interviews in order to achieve representative samples.
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I’ll never forget watching InTrade after the exit polls came out in 2004. Bush went down to single digits, Kerry to the nineties.
That was the last time I took InTrade seriously.
Norwegian on October 4, 2012 at 12:40 PM
IOW – we don’t want to know just how bad the beating will be until the end…
todler on October 4, 2012 at 12:40 PM
Good move cuz you know they did such a bang-up job on the exit polls in the Wisconsin recall election in June so as to claim it was a dead-heat and then, oh look, barely an hour after the polls closed the election was called for Scott Walker at an even higher margin than the original election. And they wonder why we mistrust polls.
stukinIL4now on October 4, 2012 at 12:40 PM
What states? I didn’t see that part.
cozmo on October 4, 2012 at 12:40 PM
Great, just great. Now how are the media lickspittles supposed to spread their message of “Bark is winning in exit polling so if you plan on voting for Romney today you might as well stay home because your vote really won’t matter”.
Bishop on October 4, 2012 at 12:42 PM
Exactly, the 19 might tell us something
Zaggs on October 4, 2012 at 12:43 PM
In Ohio, where I live, half the ballots will be cast early (either by mail or in-person at the Board of Elections). Exit polling doesn’t capture any of those voters, which leaves a huge gap in the reliability of those poll results.
Outlander on October 4, 2012 at 12:43 PM
Don’t worry too much, you figure that number is cut to 12 when you tally in those extra 7 states we have laying around.
Then out of that 12 you remove deep red states, because they don’t exist/ are in flyover country according to the MSM
And what you are left with is Obama up by 8 billion votes on election day.
Hail Obama.
Gatsu on October 4, 2012 at 12:47 PM
Of course they did…
Seven Percent Solution on October 4, 2012 at 12:49 PM
Translation: 19 states have now flipped for Romney and the media can’t allow that fact to get out
Eschelon on October 4, 2012 at 12:49 PM
Obama super PAC pulling out of Florida and Wisconsin.
This could be bad news or good news.
SouthernGent on October 4, 2012 at 12:50 PM
Outlander, please tell me Oiho isn’t gonna go blue.
ornery_independent on October 4, 2012 at 12:51 PM
Which states?
Sounds to me like desperation.
MadisonConservative on October 4, 2012 at 12:52 PM
I say good news, in both cases.
cozmo on October 4, 2012 at 12:54 PM
..posted this on another thread that Huge Hewitt had a conversaiton with the Cuyohoga County (OIHO) GOP Chairman Rob Frost who said that (R) absentee ballot requests AT THIS TIME were 105-120% of what they were in all of 2008 — with five weeks to go. And the other counties are reporting similar/BETTER statistics.
The War Planner on October 4, 2012 at 12:55 PM
I’m in Florida and kinda politically active, and I don’t sense a feeling of panic from the Republicans. After last night, I’m gonna assume it’s good news.
ornery_independent on October 4, 2012 at 12:55 PM
The are canceling the exit polls becuase they do not want to risk depressing Obamabot votes as the data comes out showing Romney is crushing him. Given the insane D+ models they are using just to keep Obama even they are seeing the writing on the wall.
This is just the opposite of what they tried to do to the Florida Pan Handle in the 2000 election when they called it early for Gore.
Skwor on October 4, 2012 at 12:55 PM
Hey Florida, we know the Polls haven’t closed yet, but Al Gore has won that state, so don’t bother voting on the way home from work. /Media in 2000
cep on October 4, 2012 at 12:57 PM
Exactly
gophergirl on October 4, 2012 at 12:58 PM
I’d say either mixed news (Florida because it’s going GOP, but Wisconsin because Obama isn’t worried) or good news (both because they’re going GOP, and Obama is going all in on rigging up enough votes in Ohio and Virginia instead). Either way, I don’t see Barky comfortable in Florida, especially after last night.
Gingotts on October 4, 2012 at 1:01 PM
Rebar on October 4, 2012 at 1:05 PM
They don’t mention which states will be dropped…hmmmmm?
d1carter on October 4, 2012 at 1:08 PM
Hiding the election day fraud.
astonerii on October 4, 2012 at 1:09 PM
Sorry, I read the article and commented before reading your post.
d1carter on October 4, 2012 at 1:09 PM
16 R’s
03 D’s
Yet California, New York, Vermont are still in…go figure.
cozmo on October 4, 2012 at 1:09 PM
My brother worked for ABC as an exit pollster here in NH in 1980. It wasn’t exactly Rocket Science.
Another theory: the MSNBC and CNN exit polls in 2008 showed that in some states, O’bamna set a new alltime record by getting 70% of the High School Dropout Vote. MSNBC was later so freaked out about this that they scrubbed those polls from their website.
He’ll need 100% of the HS dropouts to have a chance this time, and they’re afraid to report that Inconvenient Truth.
Del Dolemonte on October 4, 2012 at 1:13 PM
tyhis worries me. The media
‘s job is to ensure a free fair election. exit polls help to make sure the politicans and ballot stuffers stay within reason when stuffing the ballot box. Without the media there it gives those that wish to steal the electi0on the cover to do so. but then again we haven’t had a real free media for 30 years.
unseen on October 4, 2012 at 1:25 PM
so most of flyover country. figures.
unseen on October 4, 2012 at 1:27 PM
Well, for several years now when myself or my wife answer a call from a poll, we give them opposite answers of our true feelings. It’s fun to mess with them.
Aplombed on October 4, 2012 at 1:31 PM
So I won’t be able to lie again to exit pollers? Darn!
RoadRunner on October 4, 2012 at 1:46 PM
Exit polls are really only good for post-election analysis… and god forbid that the MSM would want to provide proper context to Mitt’s massive victory in November…
phreshone on October 4, 2012 at 1:47 PM
Well, that’s a good first step. Now, if we would just cancel the exit polls in 31 other states and only report on the actual results, we’d really be moving in the right direction.
Shump on October 4, 2012 at 1:51 PM
I posted something along these lines in another headlines thread a few days ago regarding the admission by some pollster that polls were twisted to show whatever the people commissioning the poll wanted, and my belief that the polls showing Obama ahead were possibly cover for the Dems stealing the election. You know, “he was ahead all along…” But was told by some voice of reason here that I was a paranoid conspiracy theorist and to seek help. As a Conservative I’ve been called much worse and I don’t care. I would not put anything past this bunch of Marxist thugs and their propaganda machine.
pannw on October 4, 2012 at 1:53 PM
In other words, next time we won’t be able to tell if polls are skewed by party because we won’t have partisan turnout numbers for nearly a quarter of the states.
They are simply finding a way to erase our ability to judge pre-election poll samples by taking that information off the table so the exit polls become useless.
crosspatch on October 4, 2012 at 2:01 PM
Ths is even more pathetic than any spin the left can generate.
They would have already paid for the polls and the results they already got weren’t pretty.
So ‘cancel the post debate poll’ is the best they can come up with.
Sir Napsalot on October 4, 2012 at 2:17 PM
Anything that Kunta Kinte says, somebody should bring up the picture of replacement ref calling touchdown for Seattle.
Sir Napsalot on October 4, 2012 at 2:22 PM
Now they can stuff the ballot box without evidence that the results should be any different.
Ronnie on October 4, 2012 at 3:20 PM