Can we believe the presidential polls?
Mr. Bush was hitting the vital 50% mark in almost half the polls (unlike Mr. Obama) and had a lead over Mr. Kerry twice as large as the one Mr. Obama now holds over Mr. Romney. So why was the 2004 race “a dead heat” while many commentators today say Mr. Obama is the clear favorite?
The reality is that 2012 is a horse race and will remain so. An incumbent below 50% is in grave danger. On Election Day he’ll usually receive less than his final poll number. That’s because his detractors are more likely to turn out, and undecideds are more resistant to voting for him…
Both candidates have advantages as the race enters its final month. Mr. Obama is slightly ahead (but short of 50%). Late-deciding independents will probably break more for Mr. Romney. Clear-eyed operatives in Boston and Chicago know this and are only playing head games with their opposition when they assert otherwise.
Team Obama’s relentless efforts to denigrate Mr. Romney as a sure loser appear to have convinced the Republican candidate that he must run as the underdog. This will make the naturally cautious Mr. Romney more aggressive, energized and specific about his agenda in the campaign’s closing weeks than he might have been. It will also make his victory more likely. America likes come-from-behind winners.
Blowback
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Obama will get 47%.
The Count on October 4, 2012 at 9:18 AM
That would be beautiful. Poetic. Lyrical.
Spannerhead on October 4, 2012 at 9:23 AM
If one has to ask…
SouthernGent on October 4, 2012 at 9:26 AM
This is the Mitt Romney you saw last night who was the successful governor of a blue state, and the head of the Republican Governor’s association. It’s the guy who stepped in and turned around the Olympics. It’s the guy you would hire to do your turnaround. It is the guy that his true supporters know.
We are used to living in the fishbowl where we know the truth, and we see the media every day say Mitt is in a Meltdown, Mitt’s campaign is flailing, Mitt jumped the gun, Mitt is out of line saying that Libya was terrorism, and of course the hard hearted head of the company that comes in a destroys businesses to put cash in his pocket. We are used to not believing what we read in the Boston Globe. I suspect only conservative people who live in NYC or San Francisco understand that. We presume and are confident that Mitt is toiling away at his campaign, the same man he always is. Honest. Intelligent. Having Integrity. A Gentleman, too. We know we can have faith in him.
The entire MSM media campaign against him, looks to us like a typical Boston Globe/Duval Patrick/ David Axelrod *simpering* smear. I am glad that Mitt had a good night last night, Axelrod simpers it a performance, but you got the real thing.
Just one more thing. Do you think it is possible Obama is really as dumb as Debbie?
Fleuries on October 4, 2012 at 9:28 AM
Not now, you can’t. The media jackalopes will be out in full force with all sorts of insider polling that will confirm Barky is comfortably ahead.
Bishop on October 4, 2012 at 9:37 AM
I don’t mean to sound snarky – but I am really tired of Karl Rove,,, and his idiotic white board.
My apologies
jake-the-goose on October 4, 2012 at 9:38 AM
Not polls that sample Democrats at a higher level than 2008 exit polls indicated.
And not polls that show a significantly higher Dem turnout relative to Republicans than in 2010.
farsighted on October 4, 2012 at 9:40 AM
+1000
Romney is a man of accomplishment. I do trust that he knows what he is doing. He has many successes behind him that earned my trust.
NavyMustang on October 4, 2012 at 9:42 AM
Yes, but he hides it better.
farsighted on October 4, 2012 at 9:45 AM
No apologies necessary but I totally disagree.
I love the fact that the guy is just whip smart and drives the left batty. He’s as evil as Bush in their eyes but unlike Bush he’s not term limited and he’s a political genius (I think Bush is smart, but I think Rove is extremely smart). Knowing that G-d willing he’ll be making lefty blood boil 30 years from now (hopefully with an electronic whiteboard by then) makes me smile. Thank goodness there’s nobody that smart on the left, I’m sure it’d drive me nuts. 
SoRight on October 4, 2012 at 10:33 AM
Off-topic, but did someone actually coordinate the fact that Romney was wearing a RED tie and Obama was wearing a BLUE tie. I mean, really.
Shump on October 4, 2012 at 10:50 AM
That’s to help the low-information voters keep track of who’s who.
slickwillie2001 on October 4, 2012 at 11:02 AM