Breitbart
Romney up four in “toss up” states
Each candidate leads in states considered “safe” for their party. In safe GOP states, Romney leads by 8. In safe Democrat states, Obama leads by a massive 22 points. But, in the more numerous and more important “toss up” states, Romney leads by 4, hitting the critical 50% threshold.
In the slightly different category of “battleground” states identified by Politico, Romney leads by 2, 49-47. Romney’s lead over Obama is powered primarily by his edge with independents. Romney leads Obama by 4 among the important swing voters. By 11 points, these voters think Romney would do better on the economy than Obama, 51-40.
Romney also has a big edge with middle class families, who prefer him over Obama by 15 points, 56-41.
Blowback
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What democrats think of the middle class:
http://www.zombietime.com/sf_rally_november_3_2004/143-4328_IMG.JPG
lorien1973 on October 3, 2012 at 8:02 PM
Is the Death Star Effect starting to take hold?
JohnGalt23 on October 3, 2012 at 8:05 PM
Remember a week ago when all polls were evil conspiracies and couldn’t be trusted? How the tune changes when they say what your team wants to hear.
Oh and the only poll where people put up or shut up aside from the election itself:
Intrade Odds Obama 70.1 Romney 29.9
Daikokuco on October 3, 2012 at 8:05 PM
Obama has probably just told people to back him on Intrade, and promised to have the government cover their losses when they lose.
malclave on October 3, 2012 at 8:09 PM
There’s been movement there, also. Romney futures have been rising since 9/29…
JohnGalt23 on October 3, 2012 at 8:09 PM
You mean the same Intrade that had 3 different people winning the AL and MS primaries and only finally settling on the winner once the networks called it? That Intrade? Alrighty.
GOPRanknFile on October 3, 2012 at 8:10 PM
Actually, it wouldn’t take that much money to manipulate the market this far out, if you were in fact committed to doing so. Later in October, you’ll see the money really flow in, and at that point it becomes both more expensive and more of a commitment to try to do so.
JohnGalt23 on October 3, 2012 at 8:12 PM
Intrade is illegal in the US. It’s hardly newsworthy to state that foreigners and criminals overwhelmingly support Obama.
Fabozz on October 3, 2012 at 8:13 PM
Remember when Intrade had ObamaCare going down 60 to 40? So glad they were right…OH WAIT!
jawkneemusic on October 3, 2012 at 8:14 PM
OSTFU
thebrokenrattle on October 3, 2012 at 8:15 PM
That they are either foreigners or criminals are irrelevant to the value of InTrade predictions. What matters is they presumably follow the race, and are willing to place their own money on the outcome. Wisdom of the marketplace, and what not…
JohnGalt23 on October 3, 2012 at 8:15 PM
The voting public is finding out that Romney has a 3.97 JD/MBA from Harvard. Plus Romney doesn’t smoke, drink and has never done drugs. Preezy Choom: proven failure.
BHO Jonestown on October 3, 2012 at 8:16 PM
Extremely interesting new analytical model of projected 2012 POTUS results:
http://piqscore.com/2012/10/new-analytical-model-cuts-through-the-fog-created-by-daily-political-polls/
According to the model, before the last five states are counted — MI (17 EVs), NJ (15 EVs), MO (11 EVs), WV (5 EVs), and NM (5 EVs) — Romney will lead Obama, 262 EVs to 223 EVs.
That means, of the final 54 EVs, Obama would have to win 47
EV… Romney only needs 8.
VastRightWingConspirator on October 3, 2012 at 8:17 PM
Do we have some new pet trolls here now??? How fun!! Desperation reeks.
1nolibgal on October 3, 2012 at 8:21 PM
Listening to an O-bot talking head on Ted Baxter just now yammering about how Romney “just doesn’t connect — especially with the middle class.”
Talking points. They’re a beautiful thing.
Rational Thought on October 3, 2012 at 8:28 PM
If I remember correctly, Intrade said that the Supreme Court was going to strike down Obamacare too…and btw, it is still a month before the election. Who knows what the odds will be by then?
Terrye on October 3, 2012 at 8:30 PM
Remember why the polls were called into question, imbecile? The party breakdown weighted heavily in favor of the incumbent party. These new polls from Politico used a D+2 model, a lot more modest and realistic than D+9 wouldn’t you say?
RepubChica on October 3, 2012 at 8:49 PM
Wait a cotton pickin’ second. In the last couple weeks there’s been polls in safe Republican states that have Romney with massive leads: 22 in Arkansas, Oklahoma I think was 31 or 32.
There was one congressional district in Utah, that had him with an astounding 72% to 22% lead over Obama.
Why is this saying that Romney only leads moderate well in safe GOP states? Am I missing something here?
ericdondero on October 3, 2012 at 8:49 PM
Romney has a double digit lead in Indiana last I heard. He will certainly carry Oklahoma by a huge margin. In 2008 not one county in Oklahoma went for Obama. Not one.
Terrye on October 3, 2012 at 8:52 PM
And with that it isn’t even remotely likely that Obama takes West Virginia or Missouri.
That said I’m tempted to question a model that considers West Virginia in play when it comes to Presidential politics. Statewide, the GOP has no bench, but when it comes to their electoral college votes, they went GOP for Bush in 2000 and never even thought of looking back.
Gingotts on October 3, 2012 at 8:56 PM