How a Paul Ryan Wisconsin effect could alter the U.S. political map
There are signs, however, that I may have underestimated Ryan’s appeal in Wisconsin. Public Policy Polling polled a hypothetical Romney-Ryan ticket last month and showed it trailing Obama-Biden by only 1 percentage point (as opposed to a 6 point Romney without Ryan deficit). A new Rasmussen poll has Romney picking up 4 points and jumping to a 1-point lead in Badger State among likely voters. A new CNN/ORC poll among registered voters has Obama up by 4 percentage points, a margin that could be predicted to shrink among likely voters.
The importance of a competitive Wisconsin for Romney-Ryan cannot be underestimated. If Obama wins Wisconsin, then my calculations indicate that he probably starts off with a minimum of 247 of the necessary 270 electoral votes. He could win simply by taking Florida and its 29 electoral votes or through some combination of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, or Virginia.
Without Wisconsin, Obama has 237 electoral votes. That may not seem like a big difference from 247, but consider the following four scenarios.
Blowback
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this is interesting analysis, but I think it overestimates Obama’s share in the 4 scenarios. I don’t see him taking Ohio, but not VA. However, the use of WI as the “tipping point” in this election is quite interesting, particularly because he could win the WH without winning Florida, that’s huge, IMO.
I think VA, FL and WI and possibly NM (?) could go to romney while CO still goes to obama. That’s my wet finger in the wind.
ted c on August 18, 2012 at 8:12 AM
in all of these scenarios, PA stays blue. I wonder if those bitter clingers are ready to let go of the Democrats this year?????/
ted c on August 18, 2012 at 8:15 AM
Wisconsin recently has become the epicenter of restoration of sanity in budget and responsibility, and having Ryan on the ticket reinforce the movement.
bayview on August 18, 2012 at 8:15 AM
Wisconsin has recently been at the fore front and epicenter to restore sanity and fiscal responsibility in government and budget. Having Ryan on the ticket will reinforce the movement.
bayview on August 18, 2012 at 8:18 AM
bayview is right. The larger context is that WI now has to be seen in the aftermath of the failed efforts by unions/democrats to recall Scott Walker and the horrendous behavior by the thugs and fleebaggers in Madison (or outside madison for that matter). Voters are going to remember that and some, may be a stretch, may see their vote as a proxy vote of support for WI/GOV Walker, in addition to the Ryan/Romney ticket.
ted c on August 18, 2012 at 8:18 AM
It’s that time of year again: electoral scenario time!
Last time I’d looked at the states, I said that Romney would get wiped out by apportioning states on an RCP average basis of the states within the electoral college. That still holds true, with Romney winning only North Carolina of all the swing states.
I also produced another analysis that said to assume Romney wins every state where he leads in at least 1 poll. Doing that last time, he would have won by a mere 2 electoral votes. Since nothing has changed in terms of the RCP average (which predicts an Obama wipeout), let’s consider the second breakdown again as a means of overcoming the polls’ sample bias.
Romney’s start: 191 EVs
Obama’s start: 237 EVs
CO: Romney (+9)
FL: Romney (+29)
IA: Romney (+6)
NV: Obama (+6)
NH: Obama (+4)
NC: Romney (+15)
OH: Romney (+18)
VA: Romney (+13)
WI: Romney (+10)
Romney:+100
Obama:+10
Final Results
Romney: 291
Obama: 247
So what’s Paul Ryan’s effect on the ticket? Indeterminate. How could that be you ask?
The effect could be anywhere from next-to-nothing (as suggested by the RCP average or Nate Silver’s analysis), or an overwhelming shift that could potentially result in a solid Romney victory. There’s also the issue as to whether any movement in Romney’s direction is a temporary boom or a permanent gain.
Right now, the race could be anything from Obama wiping out Romney, to Romney wiping out Obama. I’d bet on the former since the top of the ticket is more important than the bottom, and Romney’s a poor candidate, but time will tell.
Stoic Patriot on August 18, 2012 at 8:20 AM
interesting stoic patriot. I don’t think Romney is a poor candidate, particularly in the context of his opponent—who is the poorest candidate, period. Romney, viewed alone, may look poor from a few angles, but one has to view him in the choice between him and Mr. Obama.
ted c on August 18, 2012 at 8:26 AM
I’ve always been perplexed at the influence of Eastern states’ results upon the outcomes of Western states’. For example, if early results indicate that Romney say….takes MA or VA or NC (all EST states) and polls still remain open for ~3-4 hrs for CO or NV or NM, does that have some effect on the voters there??? More specifically, is there a tidal wave produced in the East that affects the West?
ted c on August 18, 2012 at 8:29 AM
No, of the three non-coast Democrat states in the west, CO is actually the state where Willard has the best chances. NV is difficult, but NM is almost impossible thanks to the radical changes in its demography through immigration.
Valkyriepundit on August 18, 2012 at 8:30 AM
Yes, Romney may look robotic and nerdy sometimes, but America had been very ill served to elect leader based just on jive speech, a little head roll and some lip biting. Lincoln and Churchill would stand little chance in the Age of American Idol politics.
bayview on August 18, 2012 at 8:31 AM
Pssst. Wisconsin. This year’s Pennsylvania.
promachus on August 18, 2012 at 8:32 AM
I have traveled 18 states and 7,500 miles in the past 4.5 mos–zero Obama/Biden 2012 bumper stickers. God’s honest truth.
Romney landslide.
hillsoftx on August 18, 2012 at 8:44 AM
I think the first scenario (winning without Ohio) and the third (winning without CO and VA) are the most likely, should WI go red.
The biggest concern about FL, imo, is not mediscaring but the unpopularity of Rick Scott. That may impact enough people’s votes to make the difference. But really, if he’s winning WI then OH, FL, and VA are probably in the bag, too.
changer1701 on August 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM
Not necessarily, though it has been demonstrated an early call in a state with multiple time zones does affect those who are in the later time zone (see Florida 2000).
Steve Eggleston on August 18, 2012 at 9:17 AM
Wisconsin sort of feels like Colorado did for the Dems in 2008. A state that traditionally went for the opposing party that was ripe for the picking. And like Colorado in 2008, I get the feeling Wisconsin going red could l have a domino effect on other states in that region. Michigan and Pennsylvania are not pipe dreams for Republicans this time around.
Doughboy on August 18, 2012 at 9:40 AM
2008 was pre-VoterID in PA. 2012, and VoterID is in place. That means less voter fraud in places like Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Philadelphia. And that’s big. This time around, some precincts in Philly might actually have a turn-out of less than 101(!) percent, harming Democrat opportunities to win the state.
John Hitchcock on August 18, 2012 at 10:07 AM