Voters aren’t waiting until after the conventions to make up their minds anymore
The screens are everywhere. There’s no place to hide from presidential candidates anymore. For a solid year they follow you from the TV monitor in the airport to the one in the taxi; you check your smartphone and they’re in the inbox telling you their plans and asking for money. You get home, turn on the TV, fire up the computer, and they’re there.
No one can hide anymore: politics will find you. And you wind up having an impression of a candidate sooner than you meant to, and it hardens into an opinion earlier than it used to. People don’t make the decision after Labor Day anymore.
They’re making their decisions now. They’ve been making them for months.
It’s showing in the polls. A NYT/CBS swing-state survey that came out this week reflects the dynamic: In the three states they polled, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, when respondents were asked who they were voting for, only 4% of them said they didn’t know. The number who said they might change their mind was in the low double digits…
Old-school thought says we’re waiting for the campaign to begin. But we’re in the campaign. We’re kind of getting close to the end.
Blowback
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Battered women never leave their man, so no surprise you never left Obama Peggy.
NotCoach on August 3, 2012 at 10:07 AM
And Romney has yet to take a commanding lead in the polls.
I guess ABO is dead on arrival.
DannoJyd on August 3, 2012 at 10:12 AM
It’s always been this way.
albill on August 3, 2012 at 10:12 AM
Still using that debunked garbage as a source?
If that poll is accurate, and Obama is way ahead in PA, FL and OH and only 4% are undecided, then it’s over. Obama will win OH and FL by a wide margin and PA by 11% – maybe more.
If it doesn’t happen, it’s more proof that NYT, CBS and Noonan are hacks and clowns.
forest on August 3, 2012 at 10:16 AM
Yeah. Those +19D polls really predict doom.
Washington Nearsider on August 3, 2012 at 10:20 AM
The white guilt has not yet been assuaged.
OldEnglish on August 3, 2012 at 10:24 AM
Whoa, slow down there girl. The LSM is just now starting to notice F&F, Solyndra, and the probability of layoffs due to the cuts in defense spending.
antipc on August 3, 2012 at 10:26 AM
It’s obvious, we don’t wait to be spoon-fed by the media these days. People from he pre-Internet and pre-cable news days are often confused why things are different now.
rhombus on August 3, 2012 at 10:26 AM
Can we please, pretty please HAVE a running mate before we declare the race over?
At this point, Romney’s camp is not only all caught up in running mate business, they have to dial back the campaign and assess the best line of attack, related to the running mate selection. You DON’T want to commit to a line of attack that can be used against the running mate, the Romney camp must know that if the nominee is hard to assail, the press will try to take it out on the running mate and plan accordingly.
PROTIP: Palin is very likely holding out her support in hopes of seeing who the running mate is first, and maybe holding out in hopes Romney picks a better conservative than he is–ya think?
This race hasn’t really started yet.
Sekhmet on August 3, 2012 at 10:26 AM
NO ONE is predicting a clear win for Romney. Not Fox News, Newsmax, Rasmussens, etc.
What killed ABO? Why aren’t more people volunteering to get Romney elected? Where is the enthusiasm?
Thanks for nothing, GOP elitists.
DannoJyd on August 3, 2012 at 10:29 AM
Palin is probably not going to endorse because it’s clear that Romney doesn’t want her support. He wouldn’t be letting his minions continue attacking her in the media if he did, and I find it unlikely Palin is going to endorse someone who slams her every couple of months.
Doomberg on August 3, 2012 at 10:33 AM
When you have breakfast do you at least offer Corn Flakes without your own urine?
An election is a marathon and nobody has a clear advantage in this race. The incumbent, Obama, should have a commanding lead 3 months before the election. Yet what most polling shows at this time (once we factor in the ridiculous sampling many polls have) is a dead heat in the mid 40′s. Nothing killed ABO, and Peggy Nooner is a fool. 10% are still undecided (by polling data) because they aren’t going to pay any attention until 30 days before the election at the most. But the ultimate decider will probably be turnout. Will it be 2008 turnout, or 2010 turnout?
Romney isn’t much of a conservative, but he is a better candidate then McShame, and this is not 2008. This election is a referendum on Obama. And such referendums just about always turn out badly for an incumbent when they have such a miserable economic record.
NotCoach on August 3, 2012 at 10:37 AM
Stick with me here.
I am to the point where I want him to pick Rubio now for VP. I do not agree with Rubio on foreign policy and immigration and consider myself a Rand Paul Conservative, however Rubio would be the best VP running mate in the era of entertainment and retail campaigning.
Stick with me here…..
We all know that Romney will not steer the federal government towards conservative governance, but have resigned ourselves to electing conservatives in congress to hold his feet to the fire. With that being said I think Romney should pick a VP who can communicate conservative ideals better than most for the sake of the election….and that man is Rubio.
Thoughts?
Meat Fighter on August 3, 2012 at 10:57 AM
A veep’s job isn’t to advance ideological concerns… it is to help the candidate win.
Now, on that count, Rubio is a damned good candidate, because he’ll assure FLA goes GOP, and he can be a good proxy in the Latin community (and please, I don’t want to hear any of the local priesthood eschewing identity politics… it works, get used to it).
My concern with Rubio is, if Romney wins, that is a seat that is going to be very difficult to assure we hold in 2014. I have the same concern with Portman. We need a majority in the Senate, desperately. We need it almost as bad as we need the WH. Pawlenty or Jindal wouldn’t put a possible Senate majority at risk.
JohnGalt23 on August 3, 2012 at 11:05 AM
Who is this “Peggy Noonan” person? I seem to recall a Peggy Noonan who claimed to be a conservative journalist, but she had to quit in shame after being duped by a false Messiah. I thought.
misterpeasea on August 3, 2012 at 11:11 AM
How many of these “Romney is going to lose” stories and polls can we discount before we read the writing on the wall – that we’re going to be forced to suffer through the worst 8 years of American history since the 1930′s?
I’m starting to weep for the stupidity of the public (given captain a-hole gets re-elected)
Defenestratus on August 3, 2012 at 11:12 AM
P.S. “When he shared his concern that London might have problems with the Olympics it seemed unguarded, which he’s always being urged to be, but it also came across as a sly little put-down of a new business by a guy who’d run an old business so well.”
Does anyone agree with this sentiment?
misterpeasea on August 3, 2012 at 11:13 AM
Things change slightly, but it’s always been like this, Peggy.
thebrokenrattle on August 3, 2012 at 11:16 AM
I didn’t think about the angle of losing a possible senate seat. Good point.
I could google but I’ll just ask. Does anyone know how Rubio’s seat would be filled? Appointment then to special election?
I live in the panhandle of Florida and while i know the politics here are more southern Alabama I still have a hard time believing how Forida would vote in another Democrat for Senate or President. Maybe I need to take a trip through Miami to equalize my preconceived notions!
Meat Fighter on August 3, 2012 at 11:19 AM
Doomberg on August 3, 2012 at 10:33 AM
True dat!
HerneTheHunter on August 3, 2012 at 11:25 AM
Anyone who understands conservatism and how it is an extension of our first principals put on paper in the Declaration of Independence and codified in Our Consitution does not write the following article:
Peggy Noonan should be shamed away from conservative circles.
Meat Fighter on August 3, 2012 at 11:27 AM
Maybe it’s the lies, maybe the stealing of taxpayer money and funneling it into his campaign, maybe it’s the crony capitalism that Obama has played from the beginning, maybe it’s the disregard for the Constitution and freedom, maybe it’s the disgusting way he sets up straw men for every argument — how dumb does he think we are???, maybe it’s his arrogance, maybe it’s his appointment of communists and socialists who exalt Mao, maybe it’s his fast and furious campaign to steal gun rights, or the Solydra thing, or his golfing outings, or his secret meetings outside the WH with lobbyists, or his putting down his own country (or is it his country?). Yeah, I made up my mind a long time ago when I decided to attend the first Tea Party rally in Feb. ’09. Haven’t changed my mind since.
He’s only got socialists and the media (oops redundant) left who made up their minds before he even announced his candidacy years ago.
The choice is pretty straightforward. Do you want tyrrany under Obama or freedom under Romney?
Christian Conservative on August 3, 2012 at 11:28 AM
Why all the wailing and gnashing of teeth? It’s f**king Peggy f**king Noonan.
HerneTheHunter on August 3, 2012 at 11:39 AM
Exactly, and the 2008 election was, as Obama intended, a referendum on Bush and the GOP who put up a candidate that could only excite journalists and only when he poked his own party in the eye. Romney must force Obama to run in the mudhole that is his record.
cartooner on August 3, 2012 at 11:48 AM
And I’m sure Peggy hopes Bill delivers the goods. After reading this well-written drivel, Noonan’s political insights haven’t gotten any sharper since 2008.
cartooner on August 3, 2012 at 11:51 AM
Good point
Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 12:11 PM
Also why I don’t want him to pick Ayotte. I like her and glad she’s my senator (a heck of a lot better than that tax-n-spend dimwit Jeanne Shaheen), but regaining the senate is too important and for that to happen we need everyone already there to stay where they are.
crazy_legs on August 3, 2012 at 12:26 PM
I made up my mind for the 2012 election on Nov 5, 2008.
Dasher on August 3, 2012 at 12:45 PM
Typical Romney supporter liberal post filled with filth. Color me unimpressed.
DannoJyd on August 3, 2012 at 1:11 PM
Peggy is still in Obama’s crotch.
Schadenfreude on August 3, 2012 at 1:25 PM