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Weekly Standard

Don’t kid yourself: Obama’s building a lead in swing states

“The national numbers aren’t changing much because Romney is actually gaining in the states that are not being bombarded with media. Yesterday’s Connecticut poll has Obama by only 8 for example. And red states seem to be getting even redder. This is happening because the daily news is about the economy, Washington problems, etc. and that is the main message getting through. So, polls in these states reflect how voters who only see national news and national advertising (to the degree there is any) respond.

“But.

“In the swing states they are being assailed with ads and campaigning, as well as the news. And here Obama seems to be building a bit of a margin. He now is ahead by solid margins in the most recent surveys in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. It’s very close in Colorado, and Romney has a slight lead in North Carolina.

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Comment pages: 1 2 3

Who would you rather have on the Supreme Court?

John Kyle (likely Romney appointee) or Cass Sunstein or Lawrence Tribe?

aquaviva on August 2, 2012 at 3:49 PM

An establishment GOP picked SCOTUS nominee? Oh – you mean like John Roberts? The guy who switched his vote on ObamaCare.

Please – but hanging out the old saw of SCOTUS picks isn’t enough to get us to support your socialist conservative with progressive, some times pro-life principles.

HondaV65 on August 2, 2012 at 4:11 PM

In short: Mitt’s a joke, he rightly disgusts a large number of people he needs to win, and he’s going to get walloped in November. Vote Gary Johnson!

Armin Tamzarian on August 2, 2012 at 2:43 PM

A vote for Gary is a vote for Obambi – so just vote for Obambi ..

That’s what I’m doing!

Eff the GOP establishment – they can kiss my ass.

HondaV65 on August 2, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Was that Kristol’s daily obligatory 550-1000 word commentary?

And he cites that ridiculously biased CBS/NYT/Quinipiac poll.

I have not stopped being concerned, but there is nothing here to increase my level of concern.

I’m sure Team Romney is doing its own internal polling in the swing states and has a plan. If someone tells me they are not and do not then I’ll ratcheting up my concern level.

My greatest concern at the moment is the level of stupidity and ignorance the American electorate may have sunk to.

farsighted on August 2, 2012 at 4:10 PM

Must be a slow news day at the Weekly Standard. I knew there was a reason I dropped by subscription to it years ago.

Jurisprudence on August 2, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Takeaway: They didn’t “weight” the polls. Voters identified themselves as such (36, 24, etc) when asked.

I’m starting to panic.

aquaviva on August 2, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Don’t panic. The poll is crap.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/08/propaganda_poll_shows_obama_ahead.html

They asked those polled how they voted in 2008. In 2008 in Florida the poll respondents voted for Obama over McCain 53% to 40%.

Yet Obama only carried Florida by 2.8% in 2008.

The Q poll has Obama 51 to 45 over Romney.

farsighted on August 2, 2012 at 4:17 PM

My greatest concern at the moment is the level of stupidity and ignorance the American electorate may have sunk to.

farsighted on August 2, 2012 at 4:10 PM

Ah yes – the old “Everybody is Eff’d up except me an MY chosen candidate” syndrome. :D

HondaV65 on August 2, 2012 at 4:21 PM

The Q poll has Obama 51 to 45 over Romney.

farsighted on August 2, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Yep, $crew the polls – I think McCain will still pull it out! LMFAO!!

HondaV65 on August 2, 2012 at 4:23 PM

mean – a simple statement that you are more of a polling expert than The Weekly Standard just doesn’t cut it. Especially if you only have a Baby Name poll under your belt.

HondaV65 on August 2, 2012 at 3:57 PM

I’ve done the research (a), and I know my strengths (b), and How did you find me on the internet?!?? Wow!! (sarc)

michaelthomas on August 2, 2012 at 4:25 PM

HondaV65 on August 2, 2012 at 4:23 PM

You’re wasting your time with me troll.

But go right ahead if it makes you feel better.

But you’ll have better luck casting your bait at someone else.

farsighted on August 2, 2012 at 4:25 PM

You could say, using similar methodology, that 0bama has a chance in Texas—IF you poll random numbers from the following area codes:

512
713
214
956

Sekhmet on August 2, 2012 at 4:29 PM

farsighted on August 2, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Farsighted makes the winning point. The big democrat wins in the Quin polls could be due to the fact that voters are considering themselves more democrat and self identifying as democrat, this could legitimatly move the D?R?I towards the dems.

However, the fact that the poll respondents voted for Obama over McCain 53% to 40%, whereas, in reality, Obama only carried Florida by 2.8% in 2008 indicates that the above possibility is not true and Quin. got a skewed sample of poll respondants.

sheikh of thornton on August 2, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Farsighted makes the winning point. The big democrat wins in the Quin polls could be due to the fact that voters are considering themselves more democrat and self identifying as democrat, this could legitimatly move the D?R?I towards the dems.

However, the fact that the poll respondents voted for Obama over McCain 53% to 40%, whereas, in reality, Obama only carried Florida by 2.8% in 2008 indicates that the above possibility is not true and Quin. got a skewed sample of poll respondants.

sheikh of thornton on August 2, 2012 at 4:38 PM

A +10% skew for Obama, yet that translates into only a 6% lead. This is not good news for Obama.

WolvenOne on August 2, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3