Worse for Obama, the latest fundraising numbers show he will not be able to outspend Romney forever. Romney and the Republican National Committee raised $106 million in June, while Obama and the Democratic National Committee raised only $71 million. Romney will eventually reach parity with Obama on television spending and will probably surpass him.

So how is Obama doing now, at the height of his incumbency advantage? At best, he’s treading water. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Obama tied with Romney among registered voters at 47 percent. But Obama is far weaker than that top line number suggests.

Romney is actually beating Obama among independents by 14 points, 53-39 percent. The only thing keeping Obama close to Romney is the poll’s heavily pro-Democrat sample. In 2008, a Democratic landslide election, Democrats enjoyed just a 7 point turn out advantage (39 percent of the electorate to 32 percent). But in this poll, Democrats enjoy a 9 point advantage (36 percent to 27 percent). In both 2004 and 2010, turnout between the parties was even.