That poll showing Obama’s support declining among black voters was probably an outlier
In practice, it is possible that Public Policy Polling got something like 100 African-American voters on the phone rather than 180, which would be associated with a margin of error of about 10 percent. In addition, all of these African-Americans were reached on landlines, and they may have different demographic characteristics (for instance, being older) than the cellphone voters that the survey missed.
A more robust sample of African-American voters comes from the Gallup poll, which interviews about 3,500 people a week for its national tracking poll and does include cellphones in its sample.
The Gallup poll suggests that Mr. Obama’s ratings among African-American voters may have dropped by a percentage point or two over the past few weeks, but probably not more than that. In the four full weeks of polling since Mr. Obama announced his support for same-sex marriage — which had been unpopular in the African-American community until recently — his approval rating has averaged 86 percent among black voters. That compares with 87 percent for 2012 as a whole…
Furthermore, keep in mind that in addition to the already-high margin of error related to polling demographic subgroups, the margin of error is calculated in such a way that it is supposed to cover 95 percent of all possible cases. But it won’t cover 100 percent. The results from 1 in 20 polls — or 1 in 20 subsamples within polls — will fall outside the margin of error.
Blowback
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Tomasky to get out of Obama’s azz to write the next propaganda article…3, 2, 1.
Schadenfreude on June 13, 2012 at 3:23 PM
If they’re Chicagoans, voting twice, maybe they’ll at least give one vote to Romney.
RBMN on June 13, 2012 at 3:25 PM
File under: no shyte.
RedNewEnglander on June 13, 2012 at 3:26 PM
Why would the most racist segment of our society change there opinion.
derecho on June 13, 2012 at 3:26 PM
their – yes I know
derecho on June 13, 2012 at 3:27 PM
One day the blacks will wake up, realize they’ve been exploited and suppressed by the leftists for votes, and they will pitchfork their modern day masters, as they should.
Hate your looters. They keep you down, at all costs because they consider you dumb and helpless, for shame.
Schadenfreude on June 13, 2012 at 3:29 PM
This I believe. Blacks are
Democrat voting automatonshistorically incredibly monolithic. His support with them will be measured by how many of themaren’t lazy enough to sit at home for a brotha they think has it in the bagare motivated enough to go and vote for him.The Count on June 13, 2012 at 3:29 PM
Run this continuously in North Carolina and watch that outlier become reality:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77390.html
Punchenko on June 13, 2012 at 3:31 PM
Let’s see how he’s doing in mid-September.
If the DNCC turns out to be nothing more than a NAACP rally, after a summer of what we’ve seen so far, some blacks are going to wise up. Not a lot, but some.
In the meantime, Mitt, go after Obama on school choice–destroy Obama on teachers unions.
BuckeyeSam on June 13, 2012 at 3:35 PM
I’m pretty sure 95% of the electorate are easily led around without seriously considering the issues. With blacks I think they are simply more likely to have each other’s backs because of what they have collectively been through as a people.
Kataklysmic on June 13, 2012 at 3:35 PM
The big winner in that poll was Obama.
The Rogue Tomato on June 13, 2012 at 3:36 PM
Or you could run the Shaft radio ad continually and get the same results. At least it SHOULD produce the same results. If Romney did an ad with the Osmands singing in the background I’d be insulted.
The Rogue Tomato on June 13, 2012 at 3:39 PM
Ok. We will see….
dogsoldier on June 13, 2012 at 3:41 PM
66,882,230 people voted for Barack Obama in 2008, but blacks did because they have a lower average IQ and vote without seriously considering the issues?
That’s simply a racist, ignorant statement.
segasagez on June 13, 2012 at 3:43 PM
One Poll does not an Election make.
That being said, consider the poll source and the dude analyzing said poll. Silver is bending over backwards to be nice to PPP, but if this had been a Faux News poll about something, I have no doubts his “analysis” (and his language) would be much much harsher.
Del Dolemonte on June 13, 2012 at 3:44 PM
“In practice, it is possible that Public Policy Polling got something like 100 African-American voters on the phone rather than 180, which would be associated with a margin of error of about 10 percent.”
Anyone else get the impression Nate Silver is talking himself down off the ledge with respect to this poll?
After I read that sentence I was expecting to see this one next in the article:
‘It is also likely this poll did not include responses of people who did not answer their phone, which would generate a margin of error of at least 20%.”
;->
PolAgnostic on June 13, 2012 at 3:44 PM
Duh. It’s a PPP poll!
SouthernGent on June 13, 2012 at 3:44 PM
I would guess that instead of voting for Obama, they just won’t go vote.
albill on June 13, 2012 at 3:50 PM
My guess is that of the 95% of black who voted for Obama, 75%+ could not tell you what are the three branches of government, what is a bicameral legislature or who is the current Speaker of the House. I have no idea about their collective IQ’s, but if you think that makes for an informed vote, you are as clueless as they are.
The Count on June 13, 2012 at 3:52 PM
Aren’t you interpreting the original poster by assuming that is what they said? That’s rather dangerous.
By the way, it is a Fact (CNN and MSNBC Exit Polling) that in 2008 O’bama set a new record by getting 70% of the high school dropout vote. Their data did not provide a breakdown by race, but in 2008 there were only 5% more black high school dropouts than white high school dropouts.
That’s not a terribly wide gap. Especially considering that both groups lagged far behind Hispanics, whose high school dropout rate was almost twice that of blacks.
Del Dolemonte on June 13, 2012 at 3:52 PM
Silver goes out of his way to downplay bad news for Democrats and good news for Republicans. Let’s remember that he’s a former Kos kid.
TheLastBrainLeft on June 13, 2012 at 3:53 PM
Also, the sun was in their eyes, the dog ate their homework, it wasn’t fair, and – oh look, a squirrel!
doppelganglander on June 13, 2012 at 3:58 PM
They’re’s no their there.
;^p
SnarkySam on June 13, 2012 at 3:59 PM
Which suggests that a lot of those black voters were not highschool drop outs (which btw has nothing to do with IQ). No matter how you frame it Mitchell proposed that black voters are dumber and more guillible than non-blacks. How on earth is that distinguishable from what white supremacists think?
libfreeordie on June 13, 2012 at 3:59 PM
Something to always keep in mind.
JohnGalt23 on June 13, 2012 at 4:01 PM
I’m thinking some are lying to pollsters now.
They “know” they are supposed to have 0bama’s back, but don’t like what he hasn’t done for them.
So they’ll either vote for him or not vote. Possibly some will vote for Romney, given 0bama and birth control controversy, if it stays alive until the election.
I’d like to think we’ve evolved past color of skin, but I know that for some that will never happen.
ProfShadow on June 13, 2012 at 4:04 PM
Obama is black. That is all that matters to black voters.
The Notorious G.O.P on June 13, 2012 at 4:04 PM
My mistake. I thought Mitchell was making a serious but misinformed point. That is not the case. It looks like he’s just doing the racist internet poster thing.
Straight nonsense.
segasagez on June 13, 2012 at 4:30 PM
2008 was the first year black people started voting for President?
segasagez on June 13, 2012 at 4:31 PM
Your genetics is wrong. African genetic diversity is immense compared to other racial/ethinic groups (because migration of small groups from Africa lead to bottleneck effects). Thus, some Africans (and those of African descent) are more closely related to non-African populations than they are are to some African populations.
Plus, you sound like an idiot.
Clark1 on June 13, 2012 at 4:48 PM
Thank you demonstrating the point for the far left side of the normal distribution curve!
I’ll bet you know all the lyrics of “Springtime for Hitler & Germany” though …
PolAgnostic on June 13, 2012 at 4:59 PM
.
Are YOU under the impression you can post ANYTHING you want and NOT get hit by the ban hammer?
Because just for you and your ‘special’ thoughts, I am going to flag your posts on this thread to the HA staff for consideration. Feel ‘special’ because you are the first commenter I have ever felt motivated to take this action.
PolAgnostic on June 13, 2012 at 5:04 PM
Racists and racism exist too.
I’d say, “Tell me if you feel a breeze.”
But in your case, silence will be golden.
PolAgnostic on June 13, 2012 at 5:10 PM
.
I think your knowledge of genetics is focused on distorted factoids selected to fit your ideology.
Darwinian evolution applies regardless of racial groups and DOES NOT support radically distributed traits between racial groups.
Let’s avoid topics you don’t understand and go back to my original questions about the lyrics?
PolAgnostic on June 13, 2012 at 5:16 PM
If you think these posts are bad you should see the posts his sock puppet “Random” makes in porn related threads.
Mitch Rapp on June 13, 2012 at 5:18 PM
Let’s give you an easy one.
Slaves under the Roman Empire. Anyone of any race could be a slave. Just as anyone of any race could be a Roman citizen. Being a slave or even a subject people in the Roman Empire really sucked.
If the Romans felt you needed motivation, they would slaughter EVERYBODY so there wouldn’t be an fuzzy interpretation of the message they were trying to send.
Over 500 years, they did this repeatedly … and repeatedly the slaves would rise up en masse and revolt – despite the horrific consequences.
It turns out (pay attention now) treating any group of individuals as a focused target of oppression increases their self identification as a group that will behave well past expected norms of participation – even after they have been relieved of the oppression.
You toddle off and think about it.
PolAgnostic on June 13, 2012 at 5:30 PM
Cultural factors are obviously important too, PolAgnostic, but so are genetics.
Culture is in part a reflection of genetic differences between populations.
Mitchell Heisman on June 13, 2012 at 5:34 PM
Is that your selective response to the Romans slaves?
Cultural factors?
Seriously?
PolAgnostic on June 13, 2012 at 5:37 PM
Yo! Einstein!
How about citing some references to support THAT statement?
No?
Got nothing?
PolAgnostic on June 13, 2012 at 5:40 PM
.
Nice fuzzy thinking there, dude. No at all credible to anyone but yourself … but I am sure THAT won’t deter you.
I have noticed you are DODGING the Roman slaves problem and the request for citations on genetics influencing culture.
Why am i not surpised?
PolAgnostic on June 13, 2012 at 5:54 PM