Obama’s gay-marriage “evolution” won’t matter much in November
So to figure out whether gay marriage will hurt Obama in the fall, you have to figure whether gay marriage alone is likely to block any of these five paths—that is, whether Obama is likely to receive fewer votes from these specific constituencies in these specific states than Kerry received in 2004. For that to occur, Obama would have to suffer a 32-point net loss in Latino support in Nevada; a 27-point net loss in Latino support in New Mexico; a 27-point net loss in Latino support in Florida; a 9-point net loss in black support in Virginia; a 19-point net loss in black support in North Carolina; a 12-point net loss in working-class support in Iowa; and a 5-point net loss in working-class support in Ohio.
In other words, it’s unlikely. Right now, 43 percent of Latinos—a group made up largely of the kind of younger men and women who are driving population growth in key states—approve of same-sex marriage. Among independents that number is up to 52 percent. And opposition among African-Americans has fallen 20 points since 2008. It’s hard to imagine that Obama’s personal opinion about same-sex marriage—remember, he’s not pushing any kind of federal legislation—will be such a turn-off for key demographic groups in key states that their support for the president will plummet to sub-Kerry levels come November.
That said, politics does not occur in a vacuum. Outside organizations may use Obama’s announcement to mobilize evangelicals who would have otherwise been unenthusiastic about voting for Romney; if the president doesn’t match Kerry’s performance among white men, which seems likely, his cushion among minorities will shrink. And so on. But it’s just as likely that these forces will be balanced out by equal and opposite forces: young voters reinspired to volunteer and turn out on Election Day; Latinos appalled by Romney’s far-right immigration stance. The bottom line is that it’s very hard to imagine Obama shedding enough votes on gay marriage to really make a difference where it matters most.
Blowback
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Gay overload. All gay, all the time.
Dongemaharu on May 12, 2012 at 9:48 PM
It’s the economy, stupid
JPeterman on May 12, 2012 at 9:51 PM
An entire paragraph based on polls which have been proved phony.
Bad analysis + phony data = nonsense.
The fact is, while 0bama’s skin color might trump minorities distaste for homosexuals, the same does not apply to the lily-white down ticket democrats, who will be the one’s to suffer for 0bama’s “coming out”.
Rebar on May 12, 2012 at 9:51 PM
It’s a good thing that there isn’t anything more important to post about, like Iran getting nukes, the economy, jobs, etc.
RoadRunner on May 12, 2012 at 9:53 PM
..no…by that time…
Obama will be saving baby seals in the arctic for PETA to distract from his disastrous record.
Baxter Greene on May 12, 2012 at 9:53 PM
I posted this in QOTD on this piece…
But Which states?
43% of Latinos doesn’t mean jack squat in California.
A 20% drop among blacks…but where is it concentrated?
See, this is the game.
In one paragraph, talk about the lead Barry had in swing states…
…in the next, throw out national generalities and act like the two automatically correlate.
In other words, it doesn’t matter if the number has dropped 20% among blacks when they voted for Barry in the 98 percentile.
They’ve made themselves irrelevant by voting like a union.
He’s says a “32-point net loss in Nevada”. Barry’s 12-point Nevada win is already down to 7. At this pace, Nevada will be within MoE territory by fall.
It’s all a pressure game now, built on shame & inevitability.
What they’re mortified of, is momentum, or lack thereof.
How many college age kids lose their “causes” when they hit true adulthood? Isn’t that always the argument made on Barry’s behalf?
budfox on May 12, 2012 at 9:56 PM
Heh.
That has to be your shortest poster ever. Not that I am complaining either way. You’re one of the best posters at HA.
CW on May 12, 2012 at 9:57 PM
That’s right because the intelligent homosexuals know pandering when they see it and they have seen his show already.
If anyone changes their vote because of this sideshow they will be doing it in areas that were already safely in Oblahblah’s pocket already.
Rio Linda Refugee on May 12, 2012 at 10:00 PM
And if I have it right Obama still cannot get himself to say that it should be a right recognized at the Federal level. I guess that comes later and likely by edict.
CW on May 12, 2012 at 10:04 PM
You just keep telling yourself that line – we will watch and count.
platypus on May 12, 2012 at 10:05 PM
Brought to you by Sgt. Redundent
Rio Linda Refugee on May 12, 2012 at 10:06 PM
These people are too clever by half. Of course it will hurt him. I’ve already heard from older Dems who are furious about him coming out. And it’s only going to fire up the evangelical vote.
John the Libertarian on May 12, 2012 at 10:10 PM
If Bacracka loses Pennsylvania, he’ll be losing Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Wisconsin (and possibly Michigan).
SouthernGent on May 12, 2012 at 10:14 PM
Keep thinking that Goober. And tell all the Obama voters it’s a lock in November. Stay home, have some Doritos and watch the cackling hens on The View. Landslide for da stick.
fogw on May 12, 2012 at 10:19 PM
Heh…thanks…
…..enjoy watching you roll on here also…..
……………especially on trolls.
Baxter Greene on May 12, 2012 at 10:34 PM
This is from breitbart on 0b0z0′s Narcissism
Bambi on May 12, 2012 at 10:55 PM
Obama’s coming out doesn’t have to cause a 5 point drop in Ohio… his crappy economy will do that. The danger of his SSM support is that it loses him another point or two, which is enough in some of these swing states to cost him the whole thing.
Remember that the ones who put him over the top in ’08 weren’t so much blacks or Latinos, but moderate vanilla white folks, of whom there are for more, and who have taken the brunt of Obama’s disastrous economy. When even California rejects SSM (and does so with a large share of both the black and Latino vote), is it really reasonable to think this won’t hurt him in less liberal states?
greggriffith on May 12, 2012 at 11:44 PM
How many gay people don’t have jobs?
Tough to get married if neither have a job…
albill on May 13, 2012 at 7:52 AM
i don’t think anyone would switch their vote from Obama to a Republican for the gay marriage stance.
black people will continue to vote for him except for the scattered few.
in our US Senate race in Virginia, George Allen is the presumptive Republican nominee. many very conservative people are mumbling that they will stay home & not support him. the gay marriage stance by Obambi might get these people out to vote against Obama & let’s pray they vote for Allen while they are in the booth. This is where we could see some help from Obambi’s stance.
kelley in virginia on May 13, 2012 at 8:13 AM
Think blue-collar Democrats and independents in the rust belt and midwest.
Stoic Patriot on May 13, 2012 at 9:14 AM
Why is HA spending so much time on this non issue? Allah, something you want to tell us?
Bmore on May 13, 2012 at 10:31 AM