What do springtime polls tell us about the general election?
It is easy to get lost in the weeds. But, of course, the election is still more than six months away, and in the past 10 presidential campaigns, the national polling leader in late April has won the election only half of the time…
The leader in national polls at the end of April in the past two elections has gone on to win. Before 2004, however, the April leader lost the popular vote more often than not.
The two biggest misses came in 1980 and 1992, both years that featured legitimate third-party candidates. President Jimmy Carter was narrowly leading a three-way race in 1980, with the independent John Anderson garnering nearly 21 percent of the vote (Mr. Carter actually led Ronald Reagan by 15 percentage points when polls tested a head-to-head match-up).
Blowback
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Next to nothing.
I just like reading that over and over.
cozmo on April 26, 2012 at 3:24 PM
ed is angry.
Del Dolemonte on April 26, 2012 at 3:29 PM
Where oh where is angryed?
JPeterman on April 26, 2012 at 3:30 PM
Every single one of them shows an incumbent with a wider lead in the springtime than what occurs in the fall.
This is horrible news for Obama when looking at historical accuracy.
Only one incumbent was able to widen their springtime lead in the fall. And that was Reagan.
Very bad news for The One.
ButterflyDragon on April 26, 2012 at 3:31 PM
Baaaaaaaaam!
WeekendAtBernankes on April 26, 2012 at 3:31 PM
It was trolling the “Terrific: Senate Dems offset cost of student loan bill with higher taxes on small business” last time I saw it.
crosspatch on April 26, 2012 at 3:33 PM
Zilch.
In fact, I suspect any polls prior to about October 28 will be useless.
I predict approximately five “October (non)Surprise”s will render meaningless aany polling before then.
Zombie on April 26, 2012 at 3:34 PM
The only poll I am interested in, the poll numbers after the Nov. election to see how many voted against bho!
L
letget on April 26, 2012 at 3:39 PM
In HA land, if they are good for Romney they mean it’s going to be a GOP landslide in November. If they are good for Obama, it means the poll was done by a lefty/communist/socialist (insert bogeyman) organization and should immediately be dismissed.
inthemiddle on April 26, 2012 at 3:41 PM
I think the polls will start reflecting the eventual reality by late July. But what they can’t predict is turnout. Seriously, turnout is key. I don’t care WHAT the polls say, turnout can trump them. If the polls show Romney +5 and 5% of the people decide not to vote because they believe its “in the bag”, we lose.
crosspatch on April 26, 2012 at 3:41 PM
Bush expanded his lead slightly in 04, too. +.3 to +2.
vegconservative on April 26, 2012 at 3:43 PM
Skiing or golfing, or both
Trafalgar on April 26, 2012 at 3:43 PM
The Jimmy Fallon appearance really laid a stink bomb on Barack. Most folks thought it was unseemly, tacky, beneath the office of the president, Barack playing second banana to Fallon’s schtick. Barack is losing his “cool” factor. That’s all he’s got left. He’s in big trouble.
Rational Thought on April 26, 2012 at 3:43 PM
Nixon in 72 expanded his lead as well. +19 to +23. This means that only for Carter, Bush41, and Clinton did it get worse by November. For 3 incumbents it improved, for 3 incumbents it got worse. It says nothing about Obama’s prospects in November.
vegconservative on April 26, 2012 at 3:45 PM
vegconservative,
Is Richard Armendariz going to get his Smoo job back when he finishes the crucifixions?
cozmo on April 26, 2012 at 3:49 PM
Nada
Schadenfreude on April 26, 2012 at 3:56 PM
I will attempt to treat your post more seriously than you did.
The polls at this stage don’t mean much about the challenger but we can infer some things about the incumbent who has 100% name recognition and voters are familiar with. If the incumbent is consistently polling at or near 50% that suggests vulnerability. Obama’s number means something but the head-to-head means less.
alchemist19 on April 26, 2012 at 4:10 PM
On top of which, Jimmy The Capital One Shill Fallon is no one’s idea of “cool,” either. Late night lightweight on a third-place network. After the Capital One gig, it’s surprising that Fallon hadn’t learned the old Hollywood rule about never sharing the screen with dogs or children before he hosted Obama. You can bet that Obama will never share screen time with a dog.
de rigueur on April 26, 2012 at 4:21 PM
Still no angryed appearance?
Shame.
Red Cloud on April 26, 2012 at 5:05 PM
I prefer for him to show up after dinner. More time to relax instead of only getting to check during pass by’s.
cozmo on April 26, 2012 at 5:14 PM
Hilarious!
dczombie on April 26, 2012 at 5:27 PM