Is the new jobs report a turning point for Obama?
2. It’s the perception that matters. In the end, though, I think nitpicking the numbers around the edges misses the forest for the trees, at least in terms of election analysis. That’s because the numbers themselves don’t matter. Very few people on the street, if asked to cite the unemployment rate, would likely be able to give a correct number, even within a few tenths of a point.
In the end, if the decline in the unemployment rate really is about people leaving the workforce, or if the seasonal adjustment is off, then people will see the headline number, recall their neighbor or brother who has been out of work for a month (or more), and mutter something about lies, damned lies, and statistics. The president will be able to run a 30-second ad bragging about the unemployment rate being lower than when he took office, but if it’s at odds with what Americans are actually experiencing, it won’t matter (and it could hurt).
Just remember that what we’re trying to do with these numbers is infer how the public thinks the economy is doing. This is usually a lagging indicator. Right now, the public still perceives the economy as doing pretty poorly, even after a couple of years’ expansion, and after past employment numbers that have been as strong as the ones announced Friday.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Was the ” hockey-stick curve” a turning point for AlGore ?
burrata on February 4, 2012 at 9:25 PM
What he should do is drop another million people out of the equation then unemployment will be at 6% and the MSM will say how great it is and the sheep will baaaa baaaa like good sheep and vote for four more years.
bictech on February 4, 2012 at 9:26 PM
Delirious.
IrishEi on February 4, 2012 at 9:26 PM
The only Obama turning point I want to hear about it the exact spot on the White House floor where spins on his heel, does an about-face, and marches right out the front door.
Glenn Jericho on February 4, 2012 at 9:33 PM
bictech on February 4, 2012 at 9:26 PM
Did you read even the quoted part?
It clearly says tricks with numbers won’t work. Unless people’s actual experiences jive with the numbers they hear it’s all damned stats.
freshface on February 4, 2012 at 9:37 PM
Yeeeah, a relatively minor uptick like this may convince a few dispirited liberals to jump back on the Obama bandwagon, but it isn’t gonna visibly change the overall perception of the economy. Really, how many years now have we been told we’re through the worst of it? And how often have these improvements vanished like an oasis in a dessert?
70% of Americans know somebody that is out of work, a friend or family member. This is the real number the political analysts should be focusing on. Until that goes down, nobody that isn’t already politically brainwashed is gonna buy these good news press events that Obama cooks up.
Besides that, I tend to think that Sean Trende is right about gas prices playing a larger political role this summer. Gas prices tend to go up in the summer either way, and with the tension in the middle east being what it is, it’s almost certain that it WILL go up substantially this summer.
This wouldn’t be a big deal during good economic times. Sure there’d be frustration over it, and it’d benefit Republicans to a degree, but boons like this were of only limited value during good economies. What happens when gas prices go up badly during an economic recession however? When the sitting president has been on record repeatedly, opposing domestic drilling projects?
Besides even that, in a REAL recovery, the unemployment rate would actually briefly go HIGHER as people entered back into the work force. Instead more people are leaving, this does not signify actual sustained growth.
WolvenOne on February 4, 2012 at 9:38 PM
well, this is a bizarre graf. The number is being used for Obama/BLS to feed the press narrative that barry has done yeoman’s work for the ‘people’.
His thing about the lagging part is weird. It is a lagging indicator…i.e. let’s say the economy is obviously expanding, people are having more work to do, more confidence…and then the UI goes down…after the fact.
I think that’s what he’s trying to say..but not very clearly.
And, btw, barry knows this. He has already said that congress better not interfere with the economic recovery. Barry is setting the stage for the summer, when the numbers aren’t so positive that he can say “I told you so”…the Evil Rs must be crushed because they have destroyed the economy
The truth is that we don’t know yet. I’ve looked at the adjusted and unadjusted numbers…the problem is one month does not make a trend…esp in a complex thing like employment.
Another thing that people don’t talk about is young people going back to (or staying in) school.
r keller on February 4, 2012 at 9:40 PM
I read it, and I don’t agree with the person writing it obviously.
bictech on February 4, 2012 at 9:40 PM
That venerated disseminator of facts, the BBC, says that the American economy is improving steadily, thanks to the Obama admin’s efforts, so everything is just peachy, right?
OldEnglish on February 4, 2012 at 9:54 PM
HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN, THE SKIES ARE BRIGHT AND CLEAR AGAIN!!!!
Sing it louder, MSM pimps for the boy blunder!
“It’s a miracle that the president has pulled off!” said the breathless anchor person. “Obama, singlehandedly, has turned the economy around! Halleluia!”
Obama’s new campaign song.
Back in reality, the real unemplyment rate is over 10%, the housing market is dead, the foreclsosure rate is staggering, the national debt is mind-boggling, the deficit catastrophic and the world situation grim.
Other than that, Obama is a blooming miracle worker!
profitsbeard on February 4, 2012 at 9:54 PM
Cook, baked, broiled, and BBQd. Of course the peeps will never hear it from the real journalists.
Limerick on February 4, 2012 at 9:59 PM
The liberals are going to pull out all stops to save their idol. I don’t think they will succeed, even with a dismal opponent like Romney.
rickv404 on February 4, 2012 at 10:11 PM
Yep. … also add Urkel’s opposition to the Canadian pipeline. That is going to stick in peoples’ memories as well. As far as the Nebraska governor also opposing having it go through the Nebraska sand hills. What does he think, that there’s on shutoff valves should something happen? That was pure pandering to his state’s environmental wackos
AZfederalist on February 4, 2012 at 10:12 PM
not even worth go to the full article, this no. 2 is horrible. Didn’t know it was possible to get superficiality supersized.
All that matters is perception? Fantasy is reality, lies are truth.
John Kettlewell on February 4, 2012 at 10:17 PM
FIFY
Tim Zank on February 4, 2012 at 10:26 PM
Bingo. If you add back in the unemployed who are said to have dropped out of the labor force, then the unemployment rate is <11%. As you say, drop another million from the "labor force", then the "unemployment rate " drops to about 6%. There, see how easy.
petefrt on February 4, 2012 at 10:37 PM
Who would have thought that the Labor Department could be filled with political hacks so they can change the way they count numbers
Just like the way the Fed is full of hacks to that they change the way inflation is measured by taking out food and fuel and then it stays low but add them in like they did from the beginning it is at 10%.
People did not fall of the books and stopped looking for work they where already shipped to the re-education camps.
tjexcite on February 4, 2012 at 11:05 PM
No, of course not. Economy is still horrendous. We’ve got such a jobs deficit he’d need another month like last month over and over and over again to win reelection. Life is still pretty miserable for way too many people.
therightwinger on February 4, 2012 at 11:05 PM
What should be asked is “How much are you making now compared to your last job?” I was making $22 and change, now im competing with 4 people for $7.95 part time at Kholes. Yeah the job market is turning around. Woohoo
Greed on February 4, 2012 at 11:17 PM
No, of course it’s not the turning point. The “turning point” would be the decision to fudge the labor numbers by “improving” the adjustment formula, remove millions of unemployed Americans from matriculating as unemployed, etc.
HitNRun on February 4, 2012 at 11:25 PM
This election is over anyway. Who cares? If Obama wins, conservatives, freedom, and our children lose. If Romney wins … pretty much the same thing.
besser tot als rot on February 4, 2012 at 11:26 PM
They should be afraid, very afraid of spinning the numbers like they have. What they don’t need is the 10 million out of the workforce people quickly jumping back in because they think enough jobs are being make.
chemman on February 4, 2012 at 11:28 PM
It is far worse than that. Even if we add back in the 4 million lost in 07-08 and the roughly 1.5 million lost since then we still don’t factor in the average of 125K who newly enter the Job force on a monthly basis. That is another 1.2 million per year since 07. We really have worse than depression era unemployment but all sides are spinning faster than a Duncan Top.
chemman on February 4, 2012 at 11:34 PM
This. For all the effort Dems will expend trying to make Republicans look out of touch, people will be able to see firsthand that Obama is out of touch when he makes this claim. And he will try to make this claim, because he is a moron who believes his own press.
Caiwyn on February 5, 2012 at 12:49 AM
Except for the last paragraph (of the exerpt) where he defends the numbers as accurate in a backhand fashion, this was pretty good news for ‘us’ in that is disputes the idea that Zero can lie his way into re-election. He’s gonna have to run against the facts on the ground as people see them, not the numbers his cronies make up.
Its mistaking the picture of a pipe for the pipe itself. If they hear that no president ever got elected with greater than 8 percent unemployment, they think that if they lie about the unemployment number they’ve gamed the system… but the number is an indicator, its not the actual thing that matters.
Of course, the ‘game changer’ is the vast and increasing numbers of people who have never held jobs and have no intention of finding jobs. These people can vote, and if they care about unemployment numbers at all, its in their interest to see HIGH unemployment, as it increases their likelihood of getting good benefits from the Government.
SpikeRHSC on February 5, 2012 at 5:25 AM
No, It will not work. Only the OZombies are claiming this as good news. Everyone and I mean Everyone else knows the numbers ARE FAKE.
Just as they know The Zero is a FAKE.
dogsoldier on February 5, 2012 at 7:22 AM
It sounds like REAL America is ‘right afeared’ of all the good news out there! Chin up, patriots, maybe February’s unemployment will go up!
Have a blessed day!
KeninCT on February 5, 2012 at 7:53 AM
Gotta love the Obamaphiles out there that consider people dropping out of the workforce ‘good news’.
I guess when you think that unemployment checks and tax hikes create jobs you can twist your mind into thinking Obama is doing a great job.
cntrlfrk on February 5, 2012 at 8:59 AM