Politico
Iowa: Cain 20, Gingrich 19, Romney 14
The survey, taken by Kellyanne Conway’s Polling Company for private clients, included hard support (definitely backing a candidate), moderately hard support (probably backing a candidate) and leaners.
Including all three categories, Cain leads the field with 20 percent, but is in a statistical dead heat with Gingrich, who gets 19 percent. Romney gets 14 percent.
Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are tied for 10 percent, Rick Perry gets 5 percent, Rick Santorum 4 percent, Jon Huntsman 2 percent and Gary Johnson 1 percent.
Blowback
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Oh. Do I hear a Mittbot crying?
andy85719 on November 14, 2011 at 2:47 PM
Gingrich is drinking Mitt’s Milkshake.
portlandon on November 14, 2011 at 2:47 PM
“I drink your milkshake,” indeed portlandon.
andy85719 on November 14, 2011 at 2:48 PM
Well it does give hope that Cain can weather this storm. Perry looks like he’s toast though.
BTW, anyone know if Iowa is winner take all with their delegates or is it proportional?
Doughboy on November 14, 2011 at 2:48 PM
I want to see Gingrich take Romney down in NH. But for conservatives we have to rally around the winner of Iowa no matter what to stop Romney. This is the number one imperative. If we can’t defeat RomneyCare then we have no chance against Obama.
milemarker2020 on November 14, 2011 at 2:54 PM
All the contest are proportional until April 1st.
One point. Neither Cain or Gingrich have an organization of size in Iowa.
Bill C on November 14, 2011 at 2:55 PM
Do I see an RDS sufferer spanking?
Red Cloud on November 14, 2011 at 2:55 PM
It looks like the new frontrunners and Newt and Cain. You know the ones who were doing (and still doing?) the Lincoln-Douglas debates. Go figure.
thebrokenrattle on November 14, 2011 at 2:56 PM
and yet………
katy the mean old lady on November 14, 2011 at 2:58 PM
Who won Iowa in the 2008 GOP primaries? Go figure how relevant they are.
TheRightMan on November 14, 2011 at 2:58 PM
Yup, taht CNN poll is the “right”one./
katy the mean old lady on November 14, 2011 at 3:00 PM
What private clients? I don’t think RCP will include this poll in their average, they only include polls where it is known who paid for it.
Jon0815 on November 14, 2011 at 3:01 PM
That’s a relief. Even if Cain and Newt split the conservative, anti-Romney vote, a proportional allocation of the delegates will prevent Mittens from running away with this thing.
Doughboy on November 14, 2011 at 3:04 PM
Hold on a sec. This is from a summary of the primary schedule I found on Wikipedia. Granted, the dates have obviously changed, but if the proportional delegates only happen in that 2nd round of states, then Newt and Cain could hand this thing to Mittens if he manages to win Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida(or at least 2 of the 3).
Doughboy on November 14, 2011 at 3:08 PM
“Polling company for private clients…”
Translation: These numbers were done for Cain or Newt & released to help them and make Romney look bad.
Internal polls are unreliable.
bigred on November 14, 2011 at 3:11 PM
That was the RNC’s original plan, but it was settled that Florida will still be winner take all (for 50 delegates since they lost half by going early).
Jon0815 on November 14, 2011 at 3:11 PM
We never know if this time is different.
True. Although I am not comfortable with this situation because I know conservative voters can be really stupid and might get railroaded into bumping Romney’s polling numbers if Romney performs better in Iowa than expected.
I would hope that the weakest of Cain, Gingrich, and Perry would drop after South Carolina. (And certainly Bachmann and Santorum.)
Bill C on November 14, 2011 at 3:12 PM
So the 2 leaders have least amount of money and done least amount of campaigning in Iowa. Shows how national campaign and Fox News is driving this
jp on November 14, 2011 at 3:12 PM
Ok, now I am confused.
Bill C on November 14, 2011 at 3:14 PM
This article says that South Carolina is winner take all as well, but I can’t find another source for that
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/2011/1102/Election-101-What-s-the-Republican-primary-calendar-for-2012/The-Fab-Five
Jon0815 on November 14, 2011 at 3:18 PM
If this is true, and I have no reason to doubt this, Romney has a slightly better chance of rapping up the nomination if Republicans cannot pick an anti-Romney of if they give up and go with the inevitable.
Bill C on November 14, 2011 at 3:32 PM
Cain was polling near 30 percent in Iowa. In a couple of polls – he was right at 30%.
Now he’s down to 20%.
MARK BLOCK FTW!!
HondaV65 on November 14, 2011 at 3:35 PM
Like I said, nightmare scenario. The anti-Romney segment of the electorate needs to rally behind either Newt or Cain. Because if that portion of the vote gets divided 50/50 or 60/40, Mittens wraps up the nomination before March.
Doughboy on November 14, 2011 at 3:38 PM
Rick Perry was polling near 40% in Iowa back in September.
Now, he is at….5%
Who should he blame?
Norwegian on November 14, 2011 at 3:41 PM
And before that can happen, these bottom tier folks need drop out for the good of the party. I can dream, can’t I?
Knucklehead on November 14, 2011 at 3:41 PM
Did this nightmare scenario suddenly develop or did it apply when Perry was the frontrunner and Cain and Gingrich were footnotes? /sarc
TheRightMan on November 14, 2011 at 3:50 PM
Cain is on his way down as many are waking up to his sham candidacy. Gingrich is enjoying his three-week “flavor of the month” surge and the race will soon be down to Romney vs. Perry, as it was destined to be from the beginning.
So pretty soon, Cain will be able to drop out, endorse Romney, and be seen as the fraud he is.
I can dream, can’t I?
TheRightMan on November 14, 2011 at 3:53 PM
And gorging on his burger, fries, and apple pie.
Punchenko on November 14, 2011 at 3:54 PM
Yes, yes you can.
Punchenko on November 14, 2011 at 3:56 PM
With a nice big helping of Häagen-Dazs black walnut ice cream
Knucklehead on November 14, 2011 at 3:58 PM
First of all, get over Perry already. He’s not coming back.
Secondly, no this was never a concern was Perry was leading Mittens by double digits. Back then, he seemed like a shoo-in for the nomination before the primary schedule would reach Florida. The problem now is with his campaign collapsing, the conservative base is desperate for a new alternative to Romney. And at first most of those Perry supporters(along with the Palinistas who were finally told she wasn’t running) went to Cain. The problem is some, but not all, of them are flocking to Newt, leaving us with the two of them splitting the vote. And with Romney and his “solid” 20-25% support not going anywhere, he could conceivably win the nomination with only 1 out of 4 primary voters backing him. That would be a disaster heading into the general election.
Doughboy on November 14, 2011 at 3:59 PM
Absolutely!
Punchenko on November 14, 2011 at 4:01 PM
Perry isn’t done if he wins in Iowa. Even a second in Iowa would get him to SC. Maybe I am dreaming but…zzzzzzzzzzzzz
I think we both don’t want Romney, as do most conservatives, so that leaves us watching the polls and early primaries hoping someone emerges. Things are just starting to shake out between Cain and Gingrich. In a week or two we will know if Cain is really done, back in single digits, or if he will stick around. Also, Gingrich will have to go through the trial of being front runner in the debates.
I think it is too early to panic but I understand your apprehension. A Romney nomination with less than 35% support would be a disaster in the making.
Bill C on November 14, 2011 at 4:54 PM