A third-party run by Sarah Palin might not be far-fetched
Political parties always fear a rogue third party challenge for one big reason – it splits the votes. In the case of 2012, it is almost like handing President Obama a second term by default. This would certainly be the case if Sarah Palin left the Republican tent and ran as an independent. But if she makes the “right choice,” she could split the votes to HER advantage.
With Sarah Palin competing as an Independent, the GOP nominee will most possibly be Mitt Romney, who with Romneycare and his flip-flopping and authenticity problems, infuriates the conservatives to their wits’ ends. The former Massachussetts governor is a favorite of the establishment, the elites and Wall Street so he’ll clinch the nomination but will lose in the general election (because Sarah Palin will split the votes, remember?), thus giving Mr. Obama another four years in the White House. But the president has a lot of problems of his own. An AP-Gfak analysis of polls show him losing support from key groups of voters that propelled him to office in 2008 (whites, women, younger voters, and some liberals) but come November 6, 2012, the biggest bloc of his base, the African-Americans, will be there and pull the lever for him.
That is, unless, Gov. Palin decides to make a bold move that will split the votes – to pick a VP running mate who can take away votes from both Obama and Romney. Someone who is BOTH pro-business and black. Someone like Herman Cain (or any other black man or woman with private sector background whom Sarah Palin would choose to pick). A pro-business running mate bring down votes for a corporate guy that is Mr. Romney. The black community will not abandon the first black president on election day unless the alternative is another brother in the ticket who knows – really knows – how to create jobs.
Blowback
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hmmm….I would assume this guest would not be invited back.
faraway on October 4, 2011 at 1:45 PM
If Cain gets 10%, that’s about 1.4%, and if that happens their will be dis-enfranchise, and the voters won’t turn out, another 10% from a record turnout (easily), that is another 1.4%…that is approaching the 3% needed to have turned the last race around…
right2bright on October 4, 2011 at 1:45 PM
no it comes from readers submissions. like hotair’s greenroom.
the article is not even posted on their main page.
unseen on October 4, 2011 at 1:46 PM
Straw man. No one has ever called C4P anything akin to prophets, and this was a guest submission anyhow.
steebo77 on October 4, 2011 at 1:47 PM
great idea! please do it! /obama
gatorboy on October 4, 2011 at 1:48 PM
It comes from the prophets farm team!
And it isn’t on the main page to stay under the radar!
The real Palin supporters know this and got the secret message.
Take that! you Palin haters! Lets hear about those self imposed deadlines now!
cozmo on October 4, 2011 at 1:50 PM
She could pull 7% at best, and only guarantee democrat victory.
Vashta.Nerada on October 4, 2011 at 1:51 PM
Was this article written by MeggyMac?
faraway on October 4, 2011 at 1:51 PM
Sarah Palin-affiliated law firm made early-state deadline inquiries
Did she ever say she wouldn’t follow the rules. Unconventional =/= rule-breaking, if those rules are legal and not conventional in nature.
steebo77 on October 4, 2011 at 1:51 PM
Who thinks this junk up? Palin is just not going there.
littleguy on October 4, 2011 at 1:51 PM
Sarah Palin: I’ve got your nose! Yes I do! I got your nose!
Palin Supporters: *TeeHee*
FlatFoot on October 4, 2011 at 1:52 PM
Alternate Headline: Hot Air desperate for a Palin link. Somewhere – anywhere. Pleeeeease.
Ted Torgerson on October 4, 2011 at 1:52 PM
Honestly your statement was so cryptic it could have been either…you are such a staunch Palin supporter, that it would not surprise me. You need to be more clear…you have no problem calling someone a liar, but it seems you aren’t very clear on your postings when it comes to stating your policies…I guess name calling comes natural to you.
The article wavers from yes it is to no it isn’t…I assumed you had read the article…my error, I should have known you didn’t…
right2bright on October 4, 2011 at 1:52 PM
You really are losing your sanity. seek help.
unseen on October 4, 2011 at 1:52 PM
Maybe she got annoyed by all the backstabbing from rinos and took that billon dollar offer from Soros…
the_nile on October 4, 2011 at 1:53 PM
I love the sounds of teeth gnashing, hair pulling, and general lamentatin’ in the morning.
idesign on October 4, 2011 at 1:53 PM
Um – did you read the context in which I made that remark?
gophergirl on October 4, 2011 at 1:53 PM
It would still be close, but I wouldn’t want to take the chance…she is dead meat if she does.
right2bright on October 4, 2011 at 1:54 PM
Gee, the title of this post is “A third-party run by Sarah Palin might not be far-fetched,” to which I responded “I kinda think it is [far-fetched].” Could hardly be clearly than that.
steebo77 on October 4, 2011 at 1:55 PM
*clearer
steebo77 on October 4, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Yes, and?
steebo77 on October 4, 2011 at 1:56 PM
Right, except for the whole thing about Sarah Palin not wanting Obama to be re-elected President.
Also, the whole “if she wanted/wants to be President, it would literally infinity-times more likely to happen by running for the nomination” reality.
HitNRun on October 4, 2011 at 1:56 PM
Aw, it was you, Bevo and idiotdesign that brought me into your
cultcamp.Here you get a Palin thread so y’all don’t have to hijack all the others. And you don’t accept a pro-Palin post!
Man, y’all are devout.
cozmo on October 4, 2011 at 1:57 PM
Palin in her own words 06/03/11:
Sarah Palin Opens Door To Possible Third Party Run
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVsf0w4AvpE
around the 2:00minute mark Palin talks about third party
unseen on October 4, 2011 at 1:57 PM
I’m not saying Cain can’t win if he is the GOP nominee – I’m saying that he won’t change the black vote significantly from the last election.
However, if Cain were Palin’s 3rd party Veep nominee – that 1.4% added to the other 10% Palin might get, would only serve to give the election to Obama.
Monkeytoe on October 4, 2011 at 1:59 PM
I think that’s lowballing it. She could be like Perot in ’92 and pull a big chunk – but as you say, the end result is the same.
catmman on October 4, 2011 at 2:00 PM
Not gonna happen. If she wants to run, IMHO it will be under the GOP banner.
Let’s see- Perry’s hitting a rough patch. Christie’s apparently (again!) making clear he’s not in. Romney is likely the frontrunner, with Cain actually competing with Perry in some polls.
Looks like the perfect setting for ‘Cuda to jump in and have a very good shot at the nomination, if she chooses to go for it.
I hope she does. If not, I hope she sits 2012 out.
An independent run would be a very bad idea, and I think she’s smarter than that.
cs89 on October 4, 2011 at 2:00 PM
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/65115.html#ixzz1ZpyHvEGh
unseen on October 4, 2011 at 2:01 PM
Article…facts…we don’t need no stinkin’ facts! We have the prophets.
You just wait, you non-believers will pay.
cozmo on October 4, 2011 at 2:01 PM
If she wants to run an unconventional campaign, I’m all for it. But as a third-party? It would be foolish gamble in the extreme.
Don’t forget that Ross Perot handed Clinton two terms. Clinton would never have made it to the WH if Perot had refrained from running.
I can’t remember the extent to which Nader was a spoiler for Al Gore, but I do think the Dems wish he would go away.
INC on October 4, 2011 at 2:03 PM
No way. No how. Romney, Perry, Cain, and even Newt, are not so bad that Sarah is going to ensure Obama’s re-election.
Basilsbest on October 4, 2011 at 2:03 PM
That’s just it. He doesn’t have to. If Cain gets just 20% of the black vote(which is not far-fetched to quote the brainiacs at C4P), Obama’s screwed. And for that matter, so are the Dems in local and state races who are depending on those trickle-down votes.
Doughboy on October 4, 2011 at 2:04 PM
You must have missed “not that I want to see that” at 3:27 mark
faraway on October 4, 2011 at 2:05 PM
How do you know I didn’t? What in my comment said that I hadn’t? You jump to so many unfounded conclusions it’s unbelievable.
steebo77 on October 4, 2011 at 2:05 PM
I don’t think she will 3rd party it because:
1) she doesn’t have the cash to run a third party race
2) she is not stupid and realizes if she runs 3rd party and Obama is reelected she will be blamed
3) she knows she can’t win a 3rd party race and will lose what is left of what little influence she currently has.
Palin has turned out to be all about her and she is not going to do anything that damages what clout she thinks she has. She is not dumb and knows a 3rd party run would destroy her and any credibility she has.
ramrants on October 4, 2011 at 2:05 PM
3:20, sorry
faraway on October 4, 2011 at 2:06 PM
What the heck are you talking about? Now you’re just spouting nonsense.
steebo77 on October 4, 2011 at 2:06 PM
She will run as the ultimate outsider in the GOP primary….and win!
idesign on October 4, 2011 at 2:06 PM
SP: “Dammit just find me an attractive black running mate that keeps me from having to appear on stage for debates….
I’m going to teach those freakin establishment crony captialist merck loving GOP’ers that if I can’t have the title they cannot either…we’ll have the campaign slogan ‘getting Obama reelected is a brilliant Palin strategy to save the country’”
Bradky on October 4, 2011 at 2:07 PM
The only person to successfully pull off something like that is her Alaskan sister Lisa…
Bradky on October 4, 2011 at 2:08 PM
Nahh, she will stretch the “I haven’t made a decision yet but will be making one soon” until next summer.
ramrants on October 4, 2011 at 2:08 PM
You are missing my point entirely. the article tried to make the claim that if Palin ran as a 3rd party candidate w/ a black VP, the black vote would come out for her.
that is nonsense on stilts. My point, again, was twofold: (1) not that Cain getting 10% more of the black vote would not be a good thing or would not help. Just that the black vote is not going to suddenly swing 50/50 b/c there is a black GOP candidate. The black vote will still remain 80% or up to Obama; AND (2) having a black Veep on a Palin 3rd party ticket would not help palin win as a 3rd party candidate. He would bring in maybe 10% of the black vote – or as you point out – 1.4% of the total vote. Add that to whatever small percentage Palin gets of hard-right conservatives defecting from the GOP candidate, and you would get what? 21.4% of the vote at most. Obama would get somewhere around 47% and the GOP candidate would pick up near 30%.
Monkeytoe on October 4, 2011 at 2:08 PM
I could get behind a Palin 3rd party run but will wait to see if there are any other contenders. Now that illegal immigration has sunk the Perry campaign I think she’ll probably toughen up on the issue, which would remove one of the biggest obstacles to my support.
FloatingRock on October 4, 2011 at 2:09 PM
Aw, don’t be a hater. I’m on your side. Looking at the comments, I fit right in.
cozmo on October 4, 2011 at 2:10 PM
More nonsense from an incoherent mind.
He said run in the primary as an outsider and win. Lisa Murkowski ran as the “establishment” candidate in the primary and lost. Then she ran third-party and won. That wasn’t the scenario idesign was laying out.
steebo77 on October 4, 2011 at 2:10 PM
Ridiculous.
If Palin runs third party, she is out of her mind.
These “theories” put out by C4P are nutty.
portlandon on October 4, 2011 at 2:10 PM
I think she will stretch it past the election next November and then blame not knowing she needed to file some months prior on the
freakin establishment crony captialist merck loving GOP’ers
Bradky on October 4, 2011 at 2:10 PM
The PerryKrishnas are getting all wee weed up…LOL
idesign on October 4, 2011 at 2:13 PM
As someone who as already posted on this thread, and as a total hypocrite, let me say:
-We are on the verge of a world-wide recession
-Leftist idiots are egging on ignorant Bolshevism in the United States
-Iran is building nuclear weapons and delivery systems
-Vladurday Putin wants a new USSR
-Obarfa is pushing massive favoritism among corporations such as GM and is tearing down the private sector in the US
… and my question is, why do these goddam Palin threads get all the interest? If she runs, fine. But whether or not she runs, these issues are still there and are NOT going away.
fiatboomer on October 4, 2011 at 2:13 PM
You are missing my point. (1) I believe that 20% is far-fetched. Regardless, that is great if the is the GOP candidate and that black vote 20% (or about 2.8% of the total vote) is added to his other vote total – which is the GOP vote of 48-52%. (2) that still does not dispute my point that hte black vote is not going to swing radically to the GOP even with a black candidate (20% of the black vote is typical most years). (3) I was responding to the article that posited that if Palin picks a black VP candidate for a 3rd party run, somehow she could win. that is nonsense. As a 3rd party candidate, Palin, at best, would get 20%. If she picked up 10% of the black vote (which i doubt), she would have 21.4%. that is not enough to win as a 3rd party candidate.
Palin cannot win as a 3rd party candidate. Her appeal is all to the far-right. I love her – but she has no appeal among independents and even less among democrats. If she were the GOP nominee she’d have a chance, particularly in a year where the incumbent is a miserable failure, but as a 3rd party candidate she has no chance whatsoever.
Monkeytoe on October 4, 2011 at 2:14 PM
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