Political parties always fear a rogue third party challenge for one big reason – it splits the votes. In the case of 2012, it is almost like handing President Obama a second term by default. This would certainly be the case if Sarah Palin left the Republican tent and ran as an independent. But if she makes the “right choice,” she could split the votes to HER advantage.
With Sarah Palin competing as an Independent, the GOP nominee will most possibly be Mitt Romney, who with Romneycare and his flip-flopping and authenticity problems, infuriates the conservatives to their wits’ ends. The former Massachussetts governor is a favorite of the establishment, the elites and Wall Street so he’ll clinch the nomination but will lose in the general election (because Sarah Palin will split the votes, remember?), thus giving Mr. Obama another four years in the White House. But the president has a lot of problems of his own. An AP-Gfak analysis of polls show him losing support from key groups of voters that propelled him to office in 2008 (whites, women, younger voters, and some liberals) but come November 6, 2012, the biggest bloc of his base, the African-Americans, will be there and pull the lever for him.
That is, unless, Gov. Palin decides to make a bold move that will split the votes – to pick a VP running mate who can take away votes from both Obama and Romney. Someone who is BOTH pro-business and black. Someone like Herman Cain (or any other black man or woman with private sector background whom Sarah Palin would choose to pick). A pro-business running mate bring down votes for a corporate guy that is Mr. Romney. The black community will not abandon the first black president on election day unless the alternative is another brother in the ticket who knows – really knows – how to create jobs.