Jay Cost
A year is a long time in American politics. In November, 2008 Barack Obama won the presidency of the United States. A year prior, he was trailing Hillary Clinton badly and under fire from his own supporters for not wasting his money as HRC was. A year before that, few people even knew who he was. In November, 1991 George H.W. Bush’s job approval stood at 62%. A year later a folksy governor from Arkansas had unseated him. In November, 1928 Herbert Hoover was elected to the third consecutive Republican landslide in what really looked to be an enduring majority. A year later…well, you get the idea.
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So basically, he’s saying that Obamao is toast.
I’m buy that.
Itchee Dryback on November 3, 2009 at 7:45 PM
We’ll see just what it tells us…
dogsoldier on November 3, 2009 at 7:46 PM
I agree that it’s not huge, but it is a small bellwether at least
orfannkyl on November 3, 2009 at 7:46 PM
Most of the article doesn’t cover President Obama at all.
Pretty good read, though, and at first thought the analysis seems pretty spot on.
BadgerHawk on November 3, 2009 at 7:46 PM
But yet Obama’s election last year meant that conservatism is dead, the GOP won’t win a thing anymore this millenium and we’re all socialists now.
ddrintn on November 3, 2009 at 7:50 PM
I know..just putting a tweek on it. Theres no reason it should not apply to Barry. He’s already pretty nicked up.
Itchee Dryback on November 3, 2009 at 7:57 PM
No kidding. Now how many polls today saying we want Huck in 2012.
Marcus on November 3, 2009 at 7:58 PM
Yeah, okay, mebbe. But elephants are slow moving beasts and awfully hard to stop once they do get going.
John the Libertarian on November 3, 2009 at 8:08 PM
I have to agree with this article, sadly much of the electorate has a very short memory. Not to say that I won’t be thrilled if Hoffman wins the race, but it is only one of many political battles yet to be fought. However, if this race turns out well I will still take solace in the fact that under this Marxist administration, somewhere the flame of freedom and rational thought still burns…
SG1_Conservative on November 3, 2009 at 8:10 PM
He’s right. We don’t know what the next year, much less what the next three will bring.
But it needs to be emphasized that back in January it looked like Cap & Tax and Obama Care was s sure thing and they have not come to pass, not because the Dems have had epiphanies about the wisdom of getting them passed but because the people have raised such a ruckus that, in the memorable words of David Obey, “We don’t have the votes, now.”
So, you can leave it the way Jay Cost suggests could happen and spend the next year, three and/or seven years always being by a phone; always ready with your protest placard for an emergency notice; and sleep with the news channel always on and with one eye open … or you can just throw the bums out so you can live peaceful lives.
There’s been more than enough time to see their true colors and there’s no reason why these races today shouldn’t mean what will also happen in 2010 and 2012, rather than not mean anything.
Dusty on November 3, 2009 at 8:15 PM
If Hoffman wins and in the same breath pundits stipulate that Sarah Palin will NOT be a major GOP and conservative force leading up to the 2010 midterms and the GOP primaries, they are either intellectually dishonest or delusional.
technopeasant on November 3, 2009 at 8:28 PM
Well Jay, a year may be a long time but it’s not long enough for us tea partiers to forgive and forget.
edshepp on November 3, 2009 at 8:58 PM
It’s not what we the voter take from NY23 – it’s what the leaders in the GOP take from NY23. It’s what the loose left leaning cannons in leadership in the GOP take from NY23. It’s what the Snowes, Grahams, and other flimsy Rs take from this race. The message being sent is not for outcome prognostication about national elections; it’s about a shot across the bow for brand protection.
R’s must act like R’s or be replaced. That is the MESSAGE.
Carolina Kat on November 3, 2009 at 9:34 PM
I think what this article really points to is the endurance of parties.
Therefore, what are the actual trends in terms of legislation and direction of the country?
My take is that we are moving left. More and more people will say that they are conservatives but yet it is the Government who people turn to for the solutions for the problems of our time.
ckoeber on November 3, 2009 at 10:19 PM
Worth elaborating on. The statist policies of the Northeast are actually driving House seats to conservative Southern states. Will those transplants turn their low-tax states into models of the corruption and waste from whence they came?
hawksruleva on November 3, 2009 at 11:18 PM
That’s the media talking. Most people I know don’t turn to the government. They turn to themselves, their families, and their friends.
hawksruleva on November 3, 2009 at 11:19 PM