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You just love posting these negative polls don’t you AP? I can’t even remember the last time you posted a Pew poll, but now that it shows McCain down by 10+ you have to post it.
Leaked internal Obama poll shows Obama within margin of error, only up by 2%.
Enoxo on October 21, 2008 at 3:53 PM
Er, in Pennsylvania.
Enoxo on October 21, 2008 at 3:54 PM
On the other hand….
Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates and Abt SRBI, Inc. among a nationwide sample of 3,016 adults, 18 years of age or older, from October 16-19, 2008 (2,264 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 752 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 267 who had no landline telephone). Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by Survey Sampling International.
The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2007 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The sample is also weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2007 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the sample.
I’m guessing there’s some kind of self-selection bias in this… where did they get the cell phone numbers?
One of the interesting things about polls that no one has brought up.
The polls are taken based on the % of voters in an area. That is if there is 56% democrats registered, and 40% Republicans, and 4% independents, that is the sampling they take.
That is why it is so important that the Democrats (ACORN) register so many democrats. Not only the chance that some will vote, but they skew the polls.
That is why the polls that show “likely” voters are so much closer. The problem is, they just ask have you voted before and they are coached to say yes, which makes them a “likely” voter.
right2bright on October 21, 2008 at 3:55 PM
So let me get this straight.
1. Allah is correct, it is over.
2. Why vote. Stay home and watch the View.
3. Say ‘Uncle’ now and it will make that crow tastier.
4. Resistance is futile.
This ‘likely voter’ voted today in early voting for McCain/Sarah. I did my part to try and keep the Republic out of bho hands.
L
letget on October 21, 2008 at 4:01 PM
so 2482 LV’s sampled
803 R 32%
953 D 38.4%
726 I 29.25%
is this right?
they don’t really tell exactly how they got the numbers after they go from the sample of “over 18″ to RV’s to LV’s then just throw out the R’s, D’s and I’s not really saying where they came from total sample or how they weighted it
jp on October 21, 2008 at 4:01 PM
Blah. I can’t wait until this election is over.
I plan to buy the most expensive cigar I can find and a bottle of top shelf bourbon for my McCain victory celebration on Nov. 4th.
basically they do not tell at all how they weighted this.
you could have that sample and get proper results as long as it was weighted correctly. They aren’t telling how they weighted exactly with the exact numbers
jp on October 21, 2008 at 4:08 PM
That’s funny, the most recent Pew Poll just announced that “the Statue of Liberty was kaput” and that the British are using us…
pmm on October 21, 2008 at 4:11 PM
So we have a combination of Republican and McCain of 1,714
And we have a combined democrat and Obama of 2,054
So that makes a difference of 340 or about a 19% difference in democrats over Republicans.
The poll shows a 14% difference, vs. 19%, the poll makes sense now.
right2bright on October 21, 2008 at 4:12 PM
“He’s losing Virginia! He’s not even going to win South Carolina!!”
- a whiney Bush-fan friend of mine in a phone call to me election day 2004 around 4ish (because he’s a computer nerd surfing page to page to page…..really needs to get outdoors and shoot a moose or something)
Marcus on October 21, 2008 at 4:15 PM
This is almost to the point that RCP should not put this in their average. We should also get ready for a new, really biased NYT/CBS poll.
IR-MN on October 21, 2008 at 4:31 PM
Pew Center is in DC! They probably called DC, NOVA, MD (PG and Montgomery Co.) LOL!
If they keep it up, McCain may break Reagan’s record!
HEADLINE Nov 5th: Biden And Joe the Plumber Defeat Obama in Landslide for McCain
OSUBuciz1 on October 21, 2008 at 4:33 PM
Somehow, recent events have caused Democrats to pol for Obama. I can’t quite figure…
Count to 10 on October 21, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Just go vote !! Pay no attention to these polls !!
Maxx on October 21, 2008 at 4:36 PM
The Eeyorism is getting to me. It’s hard to resist.
Man I hope we win this.
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 4:38 PM
Oh God another Poll
Dritanian on October 21, 2008 at 4:40 PM
I’ve been looking at some of the polling from October 2004 and it looks like most of the big polling firms had Bush and Kerry just about dead even with a spread of 1-3 points, which is just about exactly how the election turned out. So if they are as accurate this year as they were 4 years ago we are toast.
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 4:50 PM
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 4:50 PM
the RCP avg. was almost right on by election day, IBD was most accurate.
that said, they weren’t using the current Weighting. Which we haven’t seen since Watergate, even in 2006 it was only a 3-4% Voter ID gap. If that is what happens this time, McCain wins probably
jp on October 21, 2008 at 4:52 PM
I’ve been looking at some of the polling from October 2004 and it looks like most of the big polling firms had Bush and Kerry just about dead even with a spread of 1-3 points, which is just about exactly how the election turned out. So if they are as accurate this year as they were 4 years ago we are toast.
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 4:50 PM
The problem is is that Rasmussen has it within 4, Battleground 1. Zogby and Gallup are now about double Rasmussen. But a 14 point Obama lead–AMONGST LIKELY VOTERS–no that’s wrong and Pew’s trying to manipulate the electorate.
IR-MN on October 21, 2008 at 4:55 PM
in 2004, there were polls way out like this by AP/Ipsos that slanted heavily Dem
Yeah – I know this one is skewed for sure. But the general trend across the board has Obama ahead. When was the last time the candidate who was ahead in all the polls went on to lose the election?
I know the arguements about the samples being skewed. I make those arguements myself. We all made those arguements in 2006 and we still got trounced.
I’m not staying home or anything – I’m definitely voting. And I’m signed up for the 72 hour GOTV campaign. So I’m doing my part and all. Still it’s tough to stay positive in the face of all this bad polling data.
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Oh, apologies to AllahPundit. Batleground Poll had just gone off the boards. Now, how do I reconcile these two polls?
Bluecaper on October 21, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Heh. I’ll bet the pollsters from the stinking Pew any amount of money they can afford to lose, that Obama will not win the election 53-39. Any.Amount.They.Have.
Jaibones on October 21, 2008 at 5:09 PM
Jim Geraghty on NRO is saying the leading indicators from the ground of OH are looking good. If they hold they have McCain outperforming Bush in 2004
Chuck Schick on October 21, 2008 at 5:17 PM
When was the last time the candidate who was ahead in all the polls went on to lose the election?
Jim Geraghty on NRO is saying the leading indicators from the ground of OH are looking good. If they hold they have McCain outperforming Bush in 2004
Chuck Schick on October 21, 2008 at 5:17 PM
saw that, key is the Voter fraud there.
plus he says that could spill over into Penn.
remember, there were parts of Kentucky area near Ohio and Penn. that in primary voted for HIllary over 90% to single digits for Obama.
jp on October 21, 2008 at 5:30 PM
We will know soon enough. But I have to say, I find a 14 point gap kind of hard to believe.
Terrye on October 21, 2008 at 5:33 PM
Bradley comes to mind.
I thought about Bradley too but there was an article kind of debunking the whole Bradley effect the other day. That article is here.
The Pumas keep reminding us that Obama overpolled by 7% in a lot of states and that he will do so again in the general election. Let’s hope they are right.
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 5:36 PM
t.ferg:
I saw this at Ace, he too mentions the Pumas:
Battleground Poll: Obama By One, 48-47, 6% Undecided*
* Note: “Undecided” Has Been Redefined as “Racist”
—Ace
Did I say “racist”? I only meant “redneck” (and also racist).
This link is just a PDF of the trendline. So if you don’t like PDFs, don’t bother, it’s will just tell you Obama’s edged down as McCain has creeped up.
The polls are all over the place. I’m choosing to believe polls like this. There’s no real reason to favor the Big Obama Lead polls over the Margin of Error Obama Lead polls, so might as well go with the ones that offer a shot of victory.
Thanks to CJ.
Hillbuzz: On those undecideds. I mean racists. No, I meant rednecks. By which I meant racists.
Undecideds will go to McCain at a rate of 4:1 or higher, the same way they broke for Clinton. That means in this Battleground Poll, it’s actually McCain 52%-Obama 49%.
The other interesting thing to keep in mind is that, on average, Obama overpolled by 7% in our primaries.
Terrye on October 21, 2008 at 5:54 PM
I have even stopped watching Fox all that much. It is all Obama all the time. The ads, etc. I am so sick of this guy and this election.
Terrye on October 21, 2008 at 5:54 PM
The only polls with any credibility are Fox News/Rasmussen and Gallup. The others are either unreliable or run by liberal news outlets.
The Dean on October 21, 2008 at 6:35 PM
jp on October 21, 2008 at 4:01 PM
jp got it right. This is amazing. You have to go to the very last page of this long report to see the highly skewed statistics. 803 of the sample are registered republicans and 953 are democrats. They need to chuck 150 democrats to get 803 to 803 – an equal comparison. Of course if you ask more democrats than republicans about the vote that the result will favor democrats. Drudgereport posted a similar poll on Friday.
I think these pollsters along with the media are just trying to decieve indecisive voters into voting for the poll winner. However, they may be surprised when the real sample (100% of all voters) vote on Nov 4 and McCain wins. Then the democrats and media that have been deluding themselves with these false statistics will have to seek counseling like they did in 2004 when Kerry the poll leader lost!
Blowback
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It’s just getting ridiculous.
Oh, I mean: Gulp!
Jim Treacher on October 21, 2008 at 3:49 PM
53-39? That’s it?
BadgerHawk on October 21, 2008 at 3:49 PM
They had Obama and Biden winning right after the Republican convention…
ninjapirate on October 21, 2008 at 3:50 PM
Breaking! Some 400,000 children responded to the poll, and 57% backed Kerry against 43% for Bush.
We’re doomed!
Enoxo on October 21, 2008 at 3:50 PM
thirteen28 on October 21, 2008 at 3:51 PM
Don’t believe it.
Oink on October 21, 2008 at 3:51 PM
hahaha, sample please
jp on October 21, 2008 at 3:51 PM
I think it would be more useful to focus on individual states at this point.WisCon on October 21, 2008 at 3:51 PM
So, I just want to know who they are calling. SERIOUSLY. WHO?
You all, you can help John McCain by calling from your house…go to the website. I called some folks here in NC. It was pretty cool.
Mommypundit on October 21, 2008 at 3:51 PM
Ooops.
Trying again.
thirteen28 on October 21, 2008 at 3:51 PM
Poll: Obama 105%, McCain 23%
What do you mean that’s not possible? We polled all registered voters in areas where ACORN and the DNC are most active!
aero on October 21, 2008 at 3:52 PM
You just love posting these negative polls don’t you AP? I can’t even remember the last time you posted a Pew poll, but now that it shows McCain down by 10+ you have to post it.
BJ on October 21, 2008 at 3:53 PM
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/276193.php
Leaked internal Obama poll shows Obama within margin of error, only up by 2%.
Enoxo on October 21, 2008 at 3:53 PM
Er, in Pennsylvania.
Enoxo on October 21, 2008 at 3:54 PM
On the other hand….
I’m guessing there’s some kind of self-selection bias in this… where did they get the cell phone numbers?
ninjapirate on October 21, 2008 at 3:54 PM
err…the sample breaks down to 953 democrats and 803 republicans. Gee that doesn’t sound right.
PierreLegrand on October 21, 2008 at 3:55 PM
One of the interesting things about polls that no one has brought up.
The polls are taken based on the % of voters in an area. That is if there is 56% democrats registered, and 40% Republicans, and 4% independents, that is the sampling they take.
That is why it is so important that the Democrats (ACORN) register so many democrats. Not only the chance that some will vote, but they skew the polls.
That is why the polls that show “likely” voters are so much closer. The problem is, they just ask have you voted before and they are coached to say yes, which makes them a “likely” voter.
right2bright on October 21, 2008 at 3:55 PM
So let me get this straight.
1. Allah is correct, it is over.
2. Why vote. Stay home and watch the View.
3. Say ‘Uncle’ now and it will make that crow tastier.
4. Resistance is futile.
Got it.
Limerick on October 21, 2008 at 3:56 PM
No one’s going to say it? Seriously? Alright…
That stinks.
amerpundit on October 21, 2008 at 3:57 PM
Don’t believe in, could be disinfo…
ninjapirate on October 21, 2008 at 3:58 PM
breakdown is here, but if you can figure it out let me know.
http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1408
Editor on October 21, 2008 at 4:01 PM
This ‘likely voter’ voted today in early voting for McCain/Sarah. I did my part to try and keep the Republic out of bho hands.
L
letget on October 21, 2008 at 4:01 PM
so 2482 LV’s sampled
803 R 32%
953 D 38.4%
726 I 29.25%
is this right?
they don’t really tell exactly how they got the numbers after they go from the sample of “over 18″ to RV’s to LV’s then just throw out the R’s, D’s and I’s not really saying where they came from total sample or how they weighted it
jp on October 21, 2008 at 4:01 PM
Blah. I can’t wait until this election is over.
I plan to buy the most expensive cigar I can find and a bottle of top shelf bourbon for my McCain victory celebration on Nov. 4th.
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 4:02 PM
MSM poll.
Obama 102, McCain -2
JiangxiDad on October 21, 2008 at 4:03 PM
So:
1. Within MoE of their last poll;
2. With a non-transparent LV model and
3. 23% of voters still persuadable.
That’s some fine work from the ol’ Pew.
Karl on October 21, 2008 at 4:04 PM
jp, yes, but if you look they say 2382 LV… okay.
Editor on October 21, 2008 at 4:04 PM
How do they get party affiliation?
Self stated? If it is; then people could easily lie just to skew the results.
lorien1973 on October 21, 2008 at 4:04 PM
basically they do not tell at all how they weighted this.
you could have that sample and get proper results as long as it was weighted correctly. They aren’t telling how they weighted exactly with the exact numbers
jp on October 21, 2008 at 4:08 PM
That’s funny, the most recent Pew Poll just announced that “the Statue of Liberty was kaput” and that the British are using us…
pmm on October 21, 2008 at 4:11 PM
So we have a combination of Republican and McCain of 1,714
And we have a combined democrat and Obama of 2,054
So that makes a difference of 340 or about a 19% difference in democrats over Republicans.
The poll shows a 14% difference, vs. 19%, the poll makes sense now.
right2bright on October 21, 2008 at 4:12 PM
“He’s losing Virginia! He’s not even going to win South Carolina!!”
- a whiney Bush-fan friend of mine in a phone call to me election day 2004 around 4ish (because he’s a computer nerd surfing page to page to page…..really needs to get outdoors and shoot a moose or something)
Marcus on October 21, 2008 at 4:15 PM
This is almost to the point that RCP should not put this in their average. We should also get ready for a new, really biased NYT/CBS poll.
IR-MN on October 21, 2008 at 4:31 PM
Pew Center is in DC! They probably called DC, NOVA, MD (PG and Montgomery Co.) LOL!
If they keep it up, McCain may break Reagan’s record!
HEADLINE Nov 5th:
Biden And Joe the Plumber Defeat Obama in Landslide for McCain
OSUBuciz1 on October 21, 2008 at 4:33 PM
Somehow, recent events have caused Democrats to pol for Obama. I can’t quite figure…
Count to 10 on October 21, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Just go vote !! Pay no attention to these polls !!
Maxx on October 21, 2008 at 4:36 PM
The Eeyorism is getting to me. It’s hard to resist.
Man I hope we win this.
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 4:38 PM
Oh God another Poll
Dritanian on October 21, 2008 at 4:40 PM
I’ve been looking at some of the polling from October 2004 and it looks like most of the big polling firms had Bush and Kerry just about dead even with a spread of 1-3 points, which is just about exactly how the election turned out. So if they are as accurate this year as they were 4 years ago we are toast.
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 4:50 PM
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 4:50 PM
the RCP avg. was almost right on by election day, IBD was most accurate.
that said, they weren’t using the current Weighting. Which we haven’t seen since Watergate, even in 2006 it was only a 3-4% Voter ID gap. If that is what happens this time, McCain wins probably
jp on October 21, 2008 at 4:52 PM
The problem is is that Rasmussen has it within 4, Battleground 1. Zogby and Gallup are now about double Rasmussen. But a 14 point Obama lead–AMONGST LIKELY VOTERS–no that’s wrong and Pew’s trying to manipulate the electorate.
IR-MN on October 21, 2008 at 4:55 PM
in 2004, there were polls way out like this by AP/Ipsos that slanted heavily Dem
jp on October 21, 2008 at 4:57 PM
AWESOME READ!
OSUBuciz1 on October 21, 2008 at 4:58 PM
That’s a garbage poll … pffft!
HondaV65 on October 21, 2008 at 5:01 PM
48 – 47
This was released today by the most accurate pollster from the 2004 election.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102108_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
Allah…how can you find Pew and not Battleground?
Bluecaper on October 21, 2008 at 5:01 PM
Yeah – I know this one is skewed for sure. But the general trend across the board has Obama ahead. When was the last time the candidate who was ahead in all the polls went on to lose the election?
I know the arguements about the samples being skewed. I make those arguements myself. We all made those arguements in 2006 and we still got trounced.
I’m not staying home or anything – I’m definitely voting. And I’m signed up for the 72 hour GOTV campaign. So I’m doing my part and all. Still it’s tough to stay positive in the face of all this bad polling data.
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Oh, apologies to AllahPundit. Batleground Poll had just gone off the boards. Now, how do I reconcile these two polls?
Bluecaper on October 21, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Heh. I’ll bet the pollsters from the stinking Pew any amount of money they can afford to lose, that Obama will not win the election 53-39. Any.Amount.They.Have.
Jaibones on October 21, 2008 at 5:09 PM
Jim Geraghty on NRO is saying the leading indicators from the ground of OH are looking good. If they hold they have McCain outperforming Bush in 2004
Chuck Schick on October 21, 2008 at 5:17 PM
Bradley comes to mind.
Ronnie on October 21, 2008 at 5:20 PM
saw that, key is the Voter fraud there.
plus he says that could spill over into Penn.
remember, there were parts of Kentucky area near Ohio and Penn. that in primary voted for HIllary over 90% to single digits for Obama.
jp on October 21, 2008 at 5:30 PM
We will know soon enough. But I have to say, I find a 14 point gap kind of hard to believe.
Terrye on October 21, 2008 at 5:33 PM
I thought about Bradley too but there was an article kind of debunking the whole Bradley effect the other day. That article is here.
The Pumas keep reminding us that Obama overpolled by 7% in a lot of states and that he will do so again in the general election. Let’s hope they are right.
t.ferg on October 21, 2008 at 5:36 PM
t.ferg:
I saw this at Ace, he too mentions the Pumas:
Battleground Poll: Obama By One, 48-47, 6% Undecided*
* Note: “Undecided” Has Been Redefined as “Racist”
—Ace
Did I say “racist”? I only meant “redneck” (and also racist).
This link is just a PDF of the trendline. So if you don’t like PDFs, don’t bother, it’s will just tell you Obama’s edged down as McCain has creeped up.
The polls are all over the place. I’m choosing to believe polls like this. There’s no real reason to favor the Big Obama Lead polls over the Margin of Error Obama Lead polls, so might as well go with the ones that offer a shot of victory.
Thanks to CJ.
Hillbuzz: On those undecideds. I mean racists. No, I meant rednecks. By which I meant racists.
Undecideds will go to McCain at a rate of 4:1 or higher, the same way they broke for Clinton. That means in this Battleground Poll, it’s actually McCain 52%-Obama 49%.
The other interesting thing to keep in mind is that, on average, Obama overpolled by 7% in our primaries.
Terrye on October 21, 2008 at 5:54 PM
I have even stopped watching Fox all that much. It is all Obama all the time. The ads, etc. I am so sick of this guy and this election.
Terrye on October 21, 2008 at 5:54 PM
The only polls with any credibility are Fox News/Rasmussen and Gallup. The others are either unreliable or run by liberal news outlets.
The Dean on October 21, 2008 at 6:35 PM
jp on October 21, 2008 at 4:01 PM
jp got it right. This is amazing. You have to go to the very last page of this long report to see the highly skewed statistics. 803 of the sample are registered republicans and 953 are democrats. They need to chuck 150 democrats to get 803 to 803 – an equal comparison. Of course if you ask more democrats than republicans about the vote that the result will favor democrats. Drudgereport posted a similar poll on Friday.
I think these pollsters along with the media are just trying to decieve indecisive voters into voting for the poll winner. However, they may be surprised when the real sample (100% of all voters) vote on Nov 4 and McCain wins. Then the democrats and media that have been deluding themselves with these false statistics will have to seek counseling like they did in 2004 when Kerry the poll leader lost!
Steve
steveb777 on October 21, 2008 at 6:55 PM