Gallup
These results, from Sept. 25-27, span the time period since John McCain made the announcement that he was temporarily suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to work for a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis, and since Congressional leaders first announced progress towards the resolution of a financial bailout bill. The results also include one complete day (Saturday) after the first presidential debate on Friday night. McCain had reached a point where he was tied with Obama earlier in the week, but Obama has gained steadily in each of the last three days’ reports.
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It’s over.
lorien1973 on September 28, 2008 at 1:41 PM
turn out the lights the party’s over
BuckNutty on September 28, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Barring lightning striking, I think we’re through.
(Dammit. When he pulled ahead after the convention, I thought he had it…)
tigerinexile on September 28, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Yep. There’s no need to even show up and vote.
fossten on September 28, 2008 at 1:45 PM
It was always a long shot, and this may not be the year to win anyway.
paul006 on September 28, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Well, might as well prepare to order my “Impeachment Now” and “I love my country and hate my government” bumper stickers to put on my car in January. That will freak out the lefty douchebags I work with.
PimFortuynsGhost on September 28, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Again, no mention of the ratio of Democrats, Republicans and Independents = pure equine scatology.
Mcguyver on September 28, 2008 at 1:47 PM
ohhh snap!
im telling you all, wait till mccain has to make some public statement defending his health care proposal…THEN it’ll be over.
ernesto on September 28, 2008 at 1:48 PM
It’s no where near over
bnelson44 on September 28, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Criminy.
Buck up, little campers. We’ll get through this election…together.
Slublog on September 28, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Rasmussen: Obama by 6%.
Key graf:
Most of that economic angst is turning to Obama.
Any my guess is that McCain’s gambit to be involved in the rescue plan, pace Dick Morris, has hurt him more than helped. He appears (apparently) to be an “insider” working in favor of the wealthy against the ordinary voter/American.
He’s got a tough climb now. Not many more bullets in his gun.
To mix my metaphors.
SteveMG on September 28, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Gallup doesn’t weight by party. If you trusted the poll before – when McCain was up – and you don’t trust it now; it’s just willful blindness.
McCain hasn’t given a reason to vote for him in 3 weeks. Palin has been disappointing – at best.
lorien1973 on September 28, 2008 at 1:49 PM
AP’s pessimism meter just broke.
Aristotle on September 28, 2008 at 1:50 PM
The Republicans had 6 years of unprecidented power and used it to line their pockets. We gave Bush 8 years and we get Obama, Reid and Pelosi for a goodbye present. Thanks assh*le.
repvoter on September 28, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Does any one think there’s the possibility of 0bama’s thugs and truth squads going after pollsters like they do other organizations?
Maybe thats why all of a sudden these organizations are over-sampling more Dems and increasing their samples?
p0s3r on September 28, 2008 at 1:51 PM
McCain has to lay the banking failures at the feet of the democrats. Their policies caused the whole problem. He has put this forward in a detailed explanation. He can’t use 30 second spots for it. This issue should be a clear win for the GOP.
scrubjay on September 28, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Look at the direction. Imaging Obama getting 60% of the vote, and winning 35-40 states. Come January, you can expect a bigger government and more programs than you can shake a stick at.
Look, man. SCHIP is going to get through. That is a back door policy to government controlled healthcare. It’s going to pass in its current form.
The housing situation gave democrats the template that de-regulation is evil, so expect more regulation.
With it, higher taxes on businesses.
No new drilling. No new energy.
Russia is wanting to put nukes in VZ and Cuba. VZ wants china and russia to buy mre oil.
This thing is out of control.
lorien1973 on September 28, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Jeez, people here don’t have a spine or a sense of this race. Obama has been up like this before and has come down. Obama usually does better over the weekends. When things get bad for Obama, the dailykooks just lie harder. When things get bad for McCain, conservatives just throw in the towel.
IR-MN on September 28, 2008 at 1:54 PM
If Obama ever gets above 50% it’s time to panic. He has yet to get OVER 50%.
SouthernGent on September 28, 2008 at 1:54 PM
Prepare for the U.S.A.’s transformation before our very eyes into the United Socialist States of America (U.S.S.A.).
Tobias2012 on September 28, 2008 at 1:55 PM
Are there mountains that surround us?
Are there walls that block the way?
Knock ‘em down, strip ‘em back boys
And forward and into the fray
Into terror, into valour
Charge ahead, no, never turn
Yes, it’s into the fire we fly
And the devil will burn
Tav on September 28, 2008 at 1:57 PM
If the sample is large enough — and it is — and the participants are randomly selected, it doesn’t matter whether Gallup weights for party affiliation.
But I will say this: follow the state polls, not the national ones. Of course, the state polls don’t look especially good for McCain either.
paul006 on September 28, 2008 at 2:00 PM
Now, i’m afraid to say, the only thing that could shift this election is terrorist attack inside US.
Aristotle on September 28, 2008 at 2:01 PM
From now until November, McCain has to pound home how Obama’s massive government spending and taxes will hurt the middle class. He’s got to reveal the fraudulence behind the 95% tax cuts and point out the harm for the average working family that Obama’s programs will be.
Repeat and rinse. And then again.
This race is now entirely about the economy (hell, don’t even mention Iraq from now on). And middle class voters at that.
SteveMG on September 28, 2008 at 2:02 PM
Now when the rain falls, it’s heavy and gray
It tumbles and pitches through space
I can remember when rain was soft
When the rain kissed my face
Tav on September 28, 2008 at 2:02 PM
It is difficult to fight against a candidate that promises everything to everybody and demanding the wealthy pay for it. We can not lower our gaurd and must fight for this country as hard as our military has done. This election, this democracy is being assaulted by the extreme left and we must stand together to defeat them. The media is in the tank for Obama and republicans must stand together. I will not surrender regardlous of what the polls say and have faith in my fellow Americans to defend this great democracy. We are at war people, hunker down and defend lady liberty with everything you have.
trs on September 28, 2008 at 2:02 PM
They didn’t poll likely voters, or registered voters.
They polled 1000 adults.
I’m not buying that McCain is down 8 points.
kakypat on September 28, 2008 at 2:03 PM
My parents left Cuba because of socialism. Good Lord, now this country is becoming socialist with this bailout. Now Obama?! GOD HELP US!!!!
There are still 30 some odd days left until election day. McCain better let Palin be Palin and he better get aggressive. This pussycat work together and kumbaya with the democrats better stop. I never seen our party so downtrodden in less than two weeks.
McCain wake the hell up!!!
jencab on September 28, 2008 at 2:03 PM
It’s been said here before…
The only poll that’s important is the one on November 4th.
keebs on September 28, 2008 at 2:03 PM
http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/9632/obamasuicide2rx3.jpg
toliver on September 28, 2008 at 2:04 PM
If Obama wins, history will repeat itself. We will head to the dark days of the Jimmy Carter era. Then comes our Reagan, Bobby Jindal.
I don’t think we can withstand another Carter.
jencab on September 28, 2008 at 2:05 PM
Because those Carter years were so good.
McCain needs to mount a full-scale assault on Obama: Rezko, Wright, Ayers, ACORN, everything. Arguing about policy is useless at this point.
WisCon on September 28, 2008 at 2:06 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQalRPQ8stI
This is what we have to look forward to Nov 5th if 0bama wins.
p0s3r on September 28, 2008 at 2:07 PM
No wonder we lost in 2006. There’s more than a month left to go. Obama has been up by as much as 9 before. And this is when everyone was freaking out about the debate being postponed. When McCain was up everyone was saying “Wait until Tuesday because the weekend cycle will be over.”
Everyone, take your own advice. Wait until Tuesday or so. Don’t kill yourself yet and don’t be depressed. We should all know that regardless of who is taking the poll, there is going to be a bias and look at the last however many presidential elections. When was the last time that polls (even exit polls) were correct?
MobileVideoEngineer on September 28, 2008 at 2:08 PM
How accurate was Gallup’s polling in the primary on Obama v. Hillary? How did the actual vote match up to the polling?
Wethal on September 28, 2008 at 2:10 PM
You people sound like liberals talking about Iraq and offshore drilling. Man up, its only a month. We can, and should win.
It’s the economy again, stupid. Obama has never run anything. He’s never led. He knows we won’t have the money for his toys yet he can’t commit to make a single cut in his plans.
Hope is not an economic policy and closing corporate loopholes won’t help American families pay their bills. It’s really simple folks, closing corporate loopholes and raising business taxes, which are already the 2nd highest in the world, will force more blue collar jobs and even white collar jobs to go to overseas (think India).
Hammer it home: Obama means well, but his policies will outsource the American Dream.
El_Terrible on September 28, 2008 at 2:16 PM
Geez, you guys. Chill.
Republicans always do significantly better in the election than they do in the polls. Always. Remember?
S. Weasel on September 28, 2008 at 2:16 PM
[up on soapbox]
WHAT THE BLOODY HELL IS THE MATTER HERE?!?!?!?
Is this how we fight for our beliefs? By just caving in?
Here are some things we can still do:
Go down to Republican HQ and volunteer.
Write to the McCain campaign and demand action on Obama’s brownshirt tactics.
Make a YouTube ad.
Wear a McCain/Palin button. (Unlike our cars, we can defend ourselves.)
If we have to go down, let’s go down fighting.
Mary in LA on September 28, 2008 at 2:17 PM
I’m glad I got out of there.
toliver on September 28, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Whether or not the polls are accurate, I would strongly encourage one and all to do what you can to get articles like Kevin Hasset’s one at Bloomberg passed around and read, because people need to know how the Dems, Obama included, led to the financial crisis. Please, make sure this is read by everyone.
Avi Green on September 28, 2008 at 2:19 PM
Sure, this lead (however large) will narrow over time. This race is still up for grabs.
But I think Obama’s middle class tax cut proposal has to be answered by McCain. If economic anxiety will be the central issue in this campaign, what does McCain have to offer those voters worried about their fiscal situation?
Obama has a “tax cut”. Well, it’s not a cut since a good chunk will go to people who don’t pay incomes taxes. But whas does McCain counter with?
SteveMG on September 28, 2008 at 2:19 PM
I agree that McCain will ultimately lose .. but I think it’ll be close .. and to say “it’s over” because of a poll taken over a month before the election is goofy.
Polls are junk .. it’s been demonstrated time and time again. I remember the exit polling showing Kerry a clear winner early one November evening …
cgoode777 on September 28, 2008 at 2:22 PM
Look, I hate polls and the MSM. But we can not deny that McCain had several missed opportunities as well as his mishandling of Palin.
I don’t know if most of you readers have listened to Rush’s show last Friday. There were callers who are annoyed at McCain and the republican party for not calling out these democRATS and their abuses, especially Obama.
Rush seemed exasperated as well. There is only so much talk radio can do.
McCain is being sensitive to the democRAT party and dares not to insult them. WHY?!
jencab on September 28, 2008 at 2:23 PM
What you’re seeing is the result of the left leaning media. I’m finding it hard to believe that such a corrupt, racist democrat could have gotten as far as he has without the help of the media, oh and the dhimmis in congress.
Scary.
4shoes on September 28, 2008 at 2:23 PM
The election is probably over. A few reasons. The media refused to cover the story of who was responsible for the US Banking Crisis. The average American blames the Republicans when, in fact, it was Democrats who caused it. That simple message and story was buried by the media.
Oil prices went down too early.
Palin. The McCain Campaign allowed a willing Media to brand her as a numbskull.
Barack Obama is standing in Michigan right now speaking. A state completely run by Democrats and Unions. The state is a basketcase because of Democrats but it will go for Obama. Why? Media bias and an impotent GOP. Maybe they found themselves a little in this Banking fight but it’s a long way to go.
AYNBLAND on September 28, 2008 at 2:24 PM
BTW, he’s also taking credit for what Congressional Republicans and McCain changed about the bill…….he’s taking credit for it…right now, on national TV. The Media will go right along.
AYNBLAND on September 28, 2008 at 2:25 PM
Can you blame him? McCain is MIA. He should have been out in front of republican opposition; telling people what republicans wanted.
That way, when they got it. He could claim responsibility.
The vacuum gave Obama his opening. He took it.
Surprised?
lorien1973 on September 28, 2008 at 2:31 PM
Thanks Mary, after the boys and I come back from our weekly lunch with Oma and Opa, we are going to break out the Vid camera once again and make and ad for Mc/Palin and put it up on my YouTube account. Couldn’t hurt and sure beats taking it laying down like a whimpering dog.
I’ll keep the HA gang informed when it’s up and running.
Over.
1GooDDaDDy on September 28, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Since we area about to enter the era of European style ’socialism’ Obambi better guarantee me my job security and 7 weeks of vacations no question ask. I mean this is what the libs say we should have and our idiot citizens are going to let it happen so I say pay up Dems, pay up.
Lance Murdock on September 28, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Well I guess all who think all is lost, just bend over and kiss your azz goodbye. I think I’ll stick around and try and throw a punch or too just to let them know they’ve been in a fight, and that I’ll still be here next time.
Farmer62 on September 28, 2008 at 2:34 PM
Prepare for the U.S.A to remain at the top of the world thanks to sound policies.
mycowardice on September 28, 2008 at 2:40 PM
Don’t worry, there will be an October surprise. I can’t imagine someone out there doesn’t have something on Obama that they have been holding.
johnt on September 28, 2008 at 2:44 PM
Hmm, an income tax cut to 45% of the populace that don’t pay income taxes makes sense?
And higher taxes on small businessmen and women who hire most of the workers in the country is also smart? Especially during a shaky economy?
America isn’t done by a longshot. But I’m not sure that Obama’s policies are sound.
We’ll withstand the attempted European-style statism of Obama’s. But they’re not sound approaches.
SteveMG on September 28, 2008 at 2:44 PM
We survived Jimmy Carter.
If need be, we’ll survive Barack Obama.
tigerinexile on September 28, 2008 at 2:48 PM
I can’t imagine McCain using it. One month to go and not a whisper of bitter clingers, Rezko, Ayers, Wright etc. I think he’s going to try to win this on the issues, and the economy is #1 so he better get to it.
El_Terrible on September 28, 2008 at 2:48 PM
The race is still up for grabs, but its obvious McCain is slipping, and that stunt he pulled last week clearly hurt him, as is Palin. I love her, but these interviews have been brutal…I don’t know if its a preparedness issue, or the canned lines they’ve fed her, or a desire not to screw up, but she does NOT look good in them, period. Frankly, I don’t know if I can watch the VP debate if that is what we have to look forward to.
McCain needs to understand that he can suspend his campaign “for the good of the country” all he wants, he can talk about working with Dems all he wants, he can have Palin utter rehearsed lines all the time, but that isn;t going to equal a win in Nov. Go after Obama’s Marxist a$$ and expose him for the fool he is. How DARE that a-hole claim credit for the changes to the bailout bill? It was the House GOP that stood up to the Dems and Bush, NOT Obama…he didn’t do squat. Call him out on it. Start throwing Ayers and Wright and Rezko at him, and don’t let up.
changer1701 on September 28, 2008 at 2:51 PM
The problem with Rezko, Ayers and Wright is that the MSM considers them old news. If they are brought up by McCain in the future the media will attack McCain and defend Obama. If they are used it will be by a 527. But I suspect there is something new out there on Obama that will come up in the 11th hour.
johnt on September 28, 2008 at 2:52 PM
And please, for the love of God, get some bitter clinger ads up in VA, PA, NC, MI, OH, and so forth. What the hell are they waiting on?
changer1701 on September 28, 2008 at 2:53 PM
mycowardice,
like those wonderful 5-year economic plans that stalin had when running a centralized economy?
burnitup on September 28, 2008 at 2:58 PM
+1
toliver on September 28, 2008 at 3:03 PM
The stunt might have worked out better if it didn’t require delaying the debate. I think that is what pissed people off. If that’s the case then McCain should rebound somewhat since the debate was not delayed.
Palin really has the power to kill this for McCain. If the debate is a disaster for her I don’t know how McCain can recover. I think she will do better than expected since the expectations are so slow, but there is no evidence that she will do great based on all of her unscripted performances so far.
johnt on September 28, 2008 at 3:05 PM
Not God-bless America, God-damn America!
I’m glad all you limp noodles can forget that and think Joe Six-pack (who wasn’t phoned by Gallup most likely) living in Pennsylvania and Virginia and Colorado will forget it too.
Jeesh, Reagan is spinning.
Marcus on September 28, 2008 at 3:09 PM
Look, Obmama has had larger leads and I’ll remind you guys that a lot of people thought this thing was over before it even began. McCain is behind right now and would probably lose if the election was held today, but it’s not.
You almost always see a shift toward Republicans in the polls as the election nears and people start paying more attention. Don’t lose hope and just keep fighting.
I heard this same call of “oh noes! we’re doomed!” many, many times in the 2000 and 2004 elections. You can start screaming AFTER Obama is elected.
Kronos on September 28, 2008 at 3:10 PM
No, but the Clintons would, if they could hide the trail back to them.
Wethal on September 28, 2008 at 3:11 PM
You mean like the wonderful 8-years we just finished with Republicans in charge of most of the US and that gave us all these great things like the Iraq War, the gigantic national debt, etc?
It’s always fun to say Obama is a marxist, unfortunately it’s harder to explain what a maxist is when you have a Republican president proposing a 700 billion $ bailout plan with no strings attached. Is Bush a marxist as well?
mycowardice on September 28, 2008 at 3:15 PM
The Democratically controlled Congress is making up their own bill. The Treasury proposal is dead.
President proposes, Congress disposes.
Lots of strings (reportedly) attached to it. I.e., incremental payments, approval from Congress needed, all profits go to paying off the debt, et cetera.
SteveMG on September 28, 2008 at 3:20 PM
I see, so it’s ok to propose a Marxist plan.
Therefore, we will be in good hands with Obama.
mycowardice on September 28, 2008 at 3:25 PM
Ditt.Freakin’.O.
exlibris on September 28, 2008 at 3:28 PM
Yeah, the debate delay WAS a disaster. It was clear people wanted it to go forward, and he badly miscalculated that Obama would feel pressure to agree with him. Pressure from who, the media? Gimme a break. McCain could’ve played it better by seizing the opportunity to join the House GOP in opposition…the public hates it, and he would’ve been seen on their side while Obama waffled and ummmed and uhhed. Instead, he doesn’t anything really one way or another, lets the Dems blame him for holding things up, then gets lambasted for wanting to postpone a debate. Stupid all the way around.
But the Palin debate…ugh. I really do like her; she is the reason I’m on board with McCain in the first place. But good grief, she has GOT to do better than what we’ve seen in these interviews. Yeah, the bar couldn’t be any lower, but sheesh. I don’t blame her…I think the McCain people are reigning her in, another stupid decision. The Gibson and Couric interviews have hurt her, and they’ve hurt McCain…there is a ton riding on Thursday, and I hope they have her up to it but also let her be Sarah Palin.
I’m gonna need a ton of Pepto Bismol come Thursday…
changer1701 on September 28, 2008 at 3:30 PM
I’m starting not care anymore. I would prefer McCain to win because I think he would make a better Commander in Chief and I don’t want another Ginsburg in the Supreme Court. But if McCain doesn’t win, oh well. Actually, I wouldn’t mind hearing what Bush calls the “angry left” (of course, not all Dems are leftists)shut up for a while. It will be nice.
terryannonline on September 28, 2008 at 3:30 PM
It amazes me when political internet junkies think the entire country is watching Katie Couric interview Sarah Palin along with them. And she performed so badly! Go to the parking lot of your local grocery store, ask people leaving what they thought watching Katie’s interview with Governor Palin. Stop at say 200 people who don’t have a clue what you’re asking. “Katie who? The girl from the Today Show?”
Marcus on September 28, 2008 at 3:39 PM
Somehow I think Katie Couric is more famous than Sarah Palin… then again, maybe not
mycowardice on September 28, 2008 at 3:42 PM
How likely is it that someone who doesn’t know who Sarah Palin or Katie Couric is going to vote anyway? I would say the people who are going to vote Nov. have at least been following the election somewhat closely. And if you have been following the election somewhat closely you know that Palin hasn’t been doing all that well.
terryannonline on September 28, 2008 at 3:45 PM
Y’all need to stop being so pessimistic. Even if we are going to lose, it’s still important to vote just to make people realize that the country is not so lopsided in favor of Obama. Y’all acting like pansies here.
MedSchoolCatholic on September 28, 2008 at 3:50 PM
I’ve followed enough elections to know George W. Bush wasn’t “doing all that well” prior to each victory and we have yet to elect a “Barack”, “Hussein” or “Obama” as President. “The American people throwing a temper tantrum” is how I believe the MSM reports it the morning after.
Marcus on September 28, 2008 at 3:50 PM
What makes me really worried is if Obama returns to his hard-left policies that he espoused in the primaries, once in office. He’s moved to the centre a bit on foreign policy and energy, but if he reverses himself to his TRUE beliefs, we’re screwed utterly.
lodge on September 28, 2008 at 3:51 PM
If elected he probably won’t turn hard left because he wouldn’t be able to get re-elected as a hard leftist.
terryannonline on September 28, 2008 at 3:54 PM
That’s true…not as many people watch those newscasts as they used too, and CBS has the lowest ranked one.
But honestly, if all we’re reduced to is making the argument that ‘oh, not very many people saw it’ then we’re grasping at straws to deny that which is very evident. Again, I don’t think its her…I think its the McCain campaign and her handlers. Frankly, I kind of resent it. If they were going to misuse the political capital they gained with her, if they were going to put her through the smears and attacks from the Left for nothing, then I wish they’d have picked someone else. It’ll be hard for her to be on a national ticket again after this, should they lose, and that pisses me off. She’s certainly capable of being VP, and eventually President, and I think she’d be a good one.
But, I’m not about to say all is lost, either. Obama might be peaking…if this bailout deal settles the markets enough and the bad news from that sector is at least minimized, that helps McCain. And, if they get their heads out of their behinds and start using Palin right, if they stop resorting to stupid stunts and start pounding Obama on bitter clingers and Wright, Rezko, and that bunch, then I think that will cause independents to drift back towards McCain. 37 days, right? A lot can happen in that time…
changer1701 on September 28, 2008 at 3:55 PM
Actually CBS is no longer the lowest ranked newscast, it’s number two now.
terryannonline on September 28, 2008 at 3:59 PM
Yeah. Because clinton, in 1992 ran a campaign guaranteeing a middle class tax cut. And totally followed through on that and won in 1996.
Oh wait.
lorien1973 on September 28, 2008 at 4:00 PM
Bill Clinton is not a hard leftist. He’s liberal that’s for sure, but not a hard leftist. If Bill Clinton was a hard leftist the folks over at Daily Kos and HuffPo would love him. Believe me right now Daily Kos and HuffPo love Obama because they think he’s one of them but if he gets in there and has to start make some concession to the right they will turn on him.
terryannonline on September 28, 2008 at 4:04 PM
Really? I stand corrected. It was doing so horribly just what seems like a short time ago. Which one is in 3rd (crossing fingers its Gibson’s)?
changer1701 on September 28, 2008 at 4:06 PM
My point is, is that Obama can do anything he wants once he’s elected. It’s exceedingly difficult to defeat him once he’s in office, unless the economy completely sucks.
Bill Clinton raised taxes in 1993 (biggest tax hike ever, i believe) and still won in 1996.
Obama can do anything he wants; as long as the economy doesn’t suck, he’ll win in 2012.
People vote pocketbook. If anyone thinks its more complex than that, they are wrong.
lorien1973 on September 28, 2008 at 4:06 PM
The networks have been replaying the worst parts of the interview all week. Anyone who didn’t watch it on CBS certainly has seen some of it on other networks by now.
johnt on September 28, 2008 at 4:07 PM
And if a foreign policy matter occurs – Israel after Iran, a terrorist bombing somewhere, etc., Obama will be stammering about relying on the UN, and McCain could be filling in the details for the reporters.
And I still don’t count out the Clintons sabotaging Obama, if they can get away with it without leaving their fingerprints.
Wethal on September 28, 2008 at 4:08 PM
Let’s not try to predict the future. Let’s deal with what is happening now and move forward from there.
terryannonline on September 28, 2008 at 4:16 PM
Yeah…something big foreign policy wise could shake things up completely. I find it so odd that McCain leads on this issue, on leadership and on terror, yet Obama is running ahead overall. I know people are worried about the economy, but if you trust one’s leadership more then wouldn’t it stand to reason you could trust him on the economy too? Why would he abdicate leadership on that but not on a foreign policy crisis? It makes no sense…I don’t think people “trust” Obama more on the economy, they just know he’ll be giving the handouts.
changer1701 on September 28, 2008 at 4:22 PM
well if NC is in play now, this poll would make sense i suppose
jp on September 28, 2008 at 4:28 PM
Wow. I respect many of you here on HotAir. Please don’t be defeated because of poll numbers; this is the desired response that they want you to feel. Don’t give up. This race has really just begun. Obama will not win. He has to peel off some Republican votes to do that and it will not happen. Clinton was able to come across as moderate and this is the reason he was elected twice. Obama will not only not pick off Republican votes but he will lose Independents and some Dems. Stay positive. IF you have to, take a day or two off from politics and come back.
carbon_footprint on September 28, 2008 at 4:43 PM
Obama is a joke. Too bad the the media is predisposed with everything but Obama’s lacking credential. He cannot even see victory in what our country does.
http://vetsforfreedom.com/multimedia/details.aspx?id=374
Jamson64 on September 28, 2008 at 4:44 PM
Obama is somehow the “cool”, “it” thing right now. YUCK.
So people want to conform with what is “in.” So they will squander our democracy.
jencab on September 28, 2008 at 4:45 PM
Republicans are pussies.
Calm Before the Storm on September 28, 2008 at 4:50 PM
blockquote>Don’t worry, there will be an October surprise. I can’t imagine someone out there doesn’t have something on Obama that they have been holding. johnt on September 28, 2008 at 2:44 PM
Absolutely. Has everyone read Freddoso’s book? Well why the f*ck not? There is enough stinky stuff in the first 25 pages to sink Obama for good. It’s all copiously footnoted and many of the sources are url’s which are <STILL ON-LINE!! For example this, and this! Get the book, and start flogging these stories around your email lists
smellthecoffee on September 28, 2008 at 4:51 PM
Hey the US Army is pretty confident of McCain winning. Ha.
burnitup on September 28, 2008 at 4:57 PM
Jencab
There are definitely a few who fall in the camp you describe.
Jamson64 on September 28, 2008 at 4:58 PM
I recall about a year or so ago Hugh Hewitt was conducting a “dead pool” for people to lay bets on when the McCain primary campaign would end. Funny, that.
Wethal on September 28, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Even if the economy sucks, he’ll just pass a new entitlement to buy votes in 2012. Just like FDR passing Social Security in ‘35 after 3 years of failing to get the country out of the great depression and got re-elected in ‘36.
burnitup on September 28, 2008 at 5:07 PM
Try to cheer up. Read this:
flyboy777 on September 28, 2008 at 5:07 PM
Wethal,
Did you pick Nov 5 2008?
burnitup on September 28, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Oops link broke:
Via Newsbusters
AOL Straw Poll: McCain 63%, Obama 37%.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/terry-trippany/2008/09/27/aol-straw-poll-mccain-63-obama-37
flyboy777 on September 28, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Sure cheered me up.
Editor on September 28, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Wrong. It’s still number three. But she gets more viewers (and surely more independent voters) than Hannity & Colmes.
But beyond that, the interview went viral.
YYZ on September 28, 2008 at 5:13 PM
That’s part of what is so sad about what’s happened to the media. Obama has one position one day, a different position the following day, and a completely different one the day after that.
If we still had journalists in America they’d be calling Obama on his BS and keeping the campaign honest. As things stand, Obama doesn’t even have to have a position on anything at all because it’s a cult of personality movement being eagerly aided and abetted by the press. When a nation is electing a leader out of emotion and propaganda, substance is meaningless. And substance hasn’t mattered since the media selected Jesus H. Obama to be our Lord and Savior about nine months ago.
Django on September 28, 2008 at 5:13 PM
As I’ve read some of the posts I’m reminded of those who completely bought into the predicted John Kerry landslide of 2004 which never happened.
viking01 on September 28, 2008 at 5:18 PM
How well did the polls work out for Al Gore and John Kerry? Ummmm? This sharp surge for Obama is as fake as he is. Everyone knows polling ALWAYS favors the dems. Stop being so damn negative here people.
The thought of an Obama presidency makes me ill, however, I have faith in the American people to see through the anti-christ messiah and not elect him in Nov.
Example:
Yesterday late afternoon I was in downtown Ft. Collins, CO and went to a bar because I noticed the $4.00 sign out front for Cosmos, Yum….anyhow, there were 5 of us in there, me being the only customer. All were students at CSU. For those of you who have never been to Ft. Collins it is as lunatic liberal as you can get, and that is saying alot from me who lives in CA.
There was only 1 out of the 5 of us there who is voting for Obamba. This one student, a female, who at first glance you would guess to be a liberal, BLEW ME AWAY by her knowledge of the issues and proceeded to tell me and her fellow employees the danger our country would be in if Obama is elected. The other female waitress high-fived me because I am a McCain supporter. This exchange with these students left my heart hopeful.
Believe me hotair posters…these polls are not what they seem to be. My 50th Birthday party last weekend had over a hundred people there. There were only about 10 people there who were Obama supporters. The rest are voting McCain. And these are Californians!!!! My little internal polls might not be scientific, but dammit, it is what I see.
This election is far from over. We need Palin out there more on talk radio and for McCain to take off the gloves and start exposing Obama for his radical ties and his extreme liberalism. Pound that son-of-a-bitch into the ground!!!!!!!
Winebabe on September 28, 2008 at 5:26 PM
My bad. I double checked, you are right. I could have sworn I read somewhere that CBS was now in second place. I must have misread it.
terryannonline on September 28, 2008 at 5:28 PM
The 527’s need to expose Obama’s outrageous follies (Crooked Rezko, Racist Wright, Terrorist Ayers, ad nauseam), more and more, like an ugly, unsettling drumbeat until November.
Or McCain will lose by being too civil.
While Obama’s ads mock him as a senile, clownish, duped, vacuous Bush clone.
Start hitting hard, or get ready for Farrakhan at the inaugural.
profitsbeard on September 28, 2008 at 5:32 PM
What the hell is wrong with some of you? You’re acting like a bunch of whiny-ass KOS Kids. Stop it.
Polls are a lousy way of predicting an outcome of an election. 99.9% percent of registered voters are never polled. Ever. So while polls might be good for rallying cries and what not, don’t go acting like the election is over. That’s just stupid.
This economic crisis will make people think seriously about who they elect. It’s become a lot more than a popularity contest. The rules have changed. I would expect that a lot of people who openly support Obama will vote rationally on election day. We need experience in the White House more than ever and I think a lot more people realize that than the polls reflect.
Wait and see.
Guardian on September 28, 2008 at 5:36 PM
The bottom line is that McCain jumped the shark by suspending his campaign and trying to postpone the debate. Obama called his bluff and McCain was forced to capitulate and do the debate. Making matters worse, McCain also had no serious participation in the negotiations for this compromise plan, meaning that McCain will get precisely ZERO credit for the bailout. (The bailout, from what I understand of it, is a definite improvement from what Paulsen and the Democrats had put together.)
But it’s not too late, yet. McCain has two last chances to potentially win, barring any October Surprises:
(1) An extremely strong debate performance by Palin on Thursday, which would re-energize interest in her and re-establish her as a “serious” vice presidential candidate; and
(2) A very strong debate performance by McCain in the second and third debates. McCain needs to be 100% on-point and persuasively make the case that he has an agenda that’s pro America and pro middle class.
Barring one or (hopefully) both of those eventualities occurring, I think Obama will open this lead up to double digits and will hold that lead all the way to victory.
Outlander on September 28, 2008 at 5:39 PM
The bottom line is that McCain jumped the shark by suspending his campaign and trying to postpone the debate. Obama called his bluff and McCain was forced to capitulate and do the debate. Making matters worse, McCain also had no serious participation in the negotiations for this compromise plan, meaning that McCain will get precisely ZERO credit for the bailout. (The bailout, from what I understand of it, is a definite improvement from what Paulsen and the Democrats had put together.)
But it’s not too late, yet. McCain has two last chances to potentially win, barring any October Surprises:
(1) An extremely strong debate performance by Palin on Thursday, which would re-energize interest in her and re-establish her as a “serious” vice presidential candidate; and
(2) A very strong debate performance by McCain in the second and third debates. McCain needs to be 100% on-point and persuasively make the case that he has an agenda that’s pro America and pro middle class.
Barring one or (hopefully) both of those eventualities occurring, I think Obama will open this lead up to double digits and will hold that lead all the way to victory.
Outlander on September 28, 2008 at 5:39 PM
So what are the poll results when the 18-24 age group is reduced according to how often they actually show up to vote? Lead gone. Rock the couch.
Ronnie on September 28, 2008 at 5:41 PM
LOL. I also wonder what happens to the youth vote if they perceive the election to be in the bag for Obama. They are likely to stay home as it is; perhaps even more likely to if they think he doesn’t need their vote.
We should also be seeing voter registration deadlines here pretty soon for those states that require it in advance. First-time voters face potential problems there.
Missy on September 28, 2008 at 5:54 PM
If the Lefty press thought Obambi had things sewn up does anyone seriously think they’d still be as rabid against Palin?
Every election news cycle I can remember has pimped a comeback or surge for the Democrat candidate. No less than they pimped an “only about sex” or “censure and move on” mantra when Slick was in deep excrement. That’s what socialist media does. Perception is reality or so they wish their suckers to believe.
Two things are hard wired into the Liberal press. First is to campaign for the Liberal candidate through snarky headlines or intentional mischaracterizations. Second is promote their candidate as gaining lead or strength usually through polls tailored for the poll results sought.
If you base victories solely on polls and predicted odds then some here may still believe USC beat Oregon State on Thursday night or Georgia maintained their unbeaten record over Alabama in Athens, GA yesterday. Let that be a reminder to any milquetoasts here quivering in their boots. Half the road to victory is showing up and getting the rest of your team to show up. Especially when there’s weeks between now and gameday.
viking01 on September 28, 2008 at 5:56 PM
I’m sure you have been following John McCain’s career the past 8 years, when he did nothing but suck up to the Democrats and the mass media. It is who he is; he’s a Maverick. It’s supposed to be what everyone loves about him. McCain-Feingold, McCain-Lieberman, McCain-Kennedy. I don’t recall any time during the past 8 years when McCain has gone after the Democrat Party or the mass media as tough as he has gone after President Bush and the GOP. And he takes pride in that. His entire campaign is based on this “maverick” career. So it does not surprise me one bit that he still dares not go after the Democrat Party or insult them at all. He is just staying true to character.
Also, keep in mind ‘word of mouth’. I talk a lot with my coworkers and one of them is a left-leaning, GOP-hater. He doesn’t watch many of these interviews and such, but whenever we talk about this stuff at work, he talks about how “one of my friends said…” or “I received this in e-mail and it said…” about the Republicans or Bush or McCain or Palin. So when his friends say “geez, did you see Sarah Palin bomb on her interview the other day?”, he takes their word that she did poorly, even if he didn’t watch. And that’s how conventional wisdom gets passed around, even if not too many people actually bothered to watch the broadcast. Plus there is YouTube to watch the things later.
Obama does not have to peel off Republican voters or Independents. He can also hope for Republican voters or Independent voters to stay home, because they are not excited about either candidate. Prior to Palin coming on board, this looked like a pretty good strategy for Obama, since the GOP was not excited about McCain at all. That all changed when Palin came on board, as the GOP-voters forgot about McCain for a few weeks and got enamored with Palin. Now that the focus has rightly gone back on McCain and Obama, reality is setting in again and some GOP-voters and Independent-voters are realizing they just are not that excited about either of the candidates. This might be the reason for the fluctuation in the polls, I don’t know.
But McCain does have a big problem, because the domestic policy debate is going to remind conservative-voters of all the reasons they don’t like McCain and only got on board because of Palin. He’ll be talking about global warming, illegal immigration and his health care plan (and he’ll mention Supreme Court justices, but with a possible supermajority Democrat Senate, that point is moot as he’ll never get anyone he wants to be approved), which will annoy conservatives, all the while Obama will be working to paint McCain as more of the same policies as the current GOP and as President Bush. If McCain cannot clearly express how it has been the Democrats who put us in this mess and that Obama’s policies will make things worse, then his campaign is in trouble.
As the saying goes, perception is reality. Obama has been able to cruise along, with the help of the mass media, on the public’s perception being that the problems in America are the fault of President Bush and the GOP. McCain has to work hard to break through that and give people the facts. If he cannot do that, he is in trouble.
Michael in MI on September 28, 2008 at 6:04 PM
One thing McCain could do to help himself is to stop saying that Republicans lost their way, became greedy and that was why we lost power in 2006!
He stated that in the debate and said it in the convention. He makes more mentions of Republicans screwing up than he does Democrats who are criminal!
As for the polls,, nothing surprises me. Nothing at all.
I could understand how Bill Clinton swayed and fooled people. I could see how Bill Clinton could sway with his words.
I just cannot imagine people loving Obama,, unless you are a hard, angry leftist moron.
Again,, I state,, I know what I witnessed in these debates. Obama was angry and pathetic.
If Obama is out there threatening private citizens who disagree with him,, why can he not also be threatening some of these pollsters. We already had fraud exposed in one of these polls early last week! Where they used a much larger sampling of Dems and blacks than they normally would.
OK,, maybe I am grasping here,, but this is not over until election day.
Many battles have turned at the last moment,, but they have never turned because of cowards and naysayers.
JellyToast on September 28, 2008 at 6:18 PM
Its still too close to call.
aengus on September 28, 2008 at 6:22 PM
Well, if he does this, it would be a complete change of character for him from over the past 8 years. He has sided with Democrats and denigrated the GOP (and President Bush) for 8 years now. So this is nothing different for him. In fact, it is the basis of his campaign: being a Maverick and being about “change” and “reform”.
Michael in MI on September 28, 2008 at 6:24 PM
Battleground has McCain up by 2. Yeah,, it’s only one poll,, but it’s a poll.
JellyToast on September 28, 2008 at 6:25 PM
Obama’s debate win
There is no need to recount the debate in full. It was a dull affair that amply exposed the mediocrity and conventional thinking that mars American politics and policy on both sides. It is enough to note the moment when things went decisively south for John McCain. That point came when Obama went on the offensive in what is, I believe, the key passage from the whole ninety-minute event. I’ve noted before that Barack Obama is one of the great rhetoricians of our era, even if he loses his eloquence when shaken and unscripted. Prodded and mocked over the better part of an hour by his opponent — through the whole debate, McCain derided his “understanding” seven times, and his “naivete” three times — he finally let loose with a brutal and effective exercise in rhetorical parallelism, made the more cruel by its basic truth:
“John,” said the Democratic nominee, “you like to pretend like the war started in 2007. You talk about the surge. The war started in 2003, and at the time when the war started, you said it was going to be quick and easy. You said we knew where the weapons of mass destruction were. You were wrong. You said that we were going to be greeted as liberators. You were wrong. You said that there was no history of violence between Shiite and Sunni. And you were wrong.”
In one swoop, the superiority of John McCain on foreign affairs was laid waste. An effective debater would have responded with a series of his foe’s own grievous errors in the same sphere — and despite his thin public record, Barack Obama has several. Instead, McCain lamely replied, “I’m afraid Senator Obama doesn’t understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy,” and segued into a non sequitur about General Petraeus. To paraphrase Tallyrand, this was worse than a crime — it was a mistake. Assaulted on the very pillar of his candiacy, John McCain yielded.
KentAllard on September 28, 2008 at 6:26 PM
PRESIDENTS GORE AND KERRY KNOW ALL TOO WELL HOW MEANINGFUL POLLS ARE.
roninacreage on September 28, 2008 at 6:27 PM
KentAllard on September 28, 2008
I would have also mentioned that the war actually started back in the early 1990’s! We just decided to participate after 9/11.
JellyToast on September 28, 2008 at 6:30 PM
McCain in a landsilde. Abosutively.
VolMagic on September 28, 2008 at 6:31 PM
Down 8?
The people clearly didn’t enjoy The McCain Get Back to Washington Freakout or The McCain Delay the Debate Freakout.
When the press begins covering him phoning it in and not really playing a part but bullsh*tting that he did, he’s looking at being down by double digits by this coming Friday end of day.
Dave Rywall on September 28, 2008 at 6:35 PM
Joshua S. Trevino: The larger story here is not the debate. Rather, it is the story of which the debate is merely the culminating chapter: the three-week-long implosion of the McCain campaign itself. At the end of the first week of September, that campaign boasted its first lead in the national polls, a surprisingly successful convention, and an energizing vice-presidential nominee. At the end of the last week of September, the lead is gone, the convention is forgotten, and Sarah Palin is more disaster than delight. How this happened demands exploration, and we’ll get to it next.
KentAllard on September 28, 2008 at 6:37 PM
The people also will also not enjoy the McCain Having Fancy Dinner Instead of Being on the Room Working on the Bailout Timeout or the McCain Phoning it in Dorkout.
Dave Rywall on September 28, 2008 at 6:38 PM
How old is Dave Rywall?
Jamson64 on September 28, 2008 at 6:53 PM
The easiest way to spot a DNC poseur masquerading pseudo-objective comment is the instant they suggest Palin is a “disaster” or a “liability.” Maybe in their Daily Kos dreams. If the press didn’t still fear Palin they wouldn’t still be struggling for dirt on her.
Anyone who has observed Ferraro’s bitter envy directed towards Palin the past few days may also remember how many in the press were telling us in 1984 that Mondull with Geraldine in tow was gaining on Reagan. Ferraro obviously realizes that Palin remains a threat not only this year but to her beloved Hillary in 2012.
Polls in the modern arena are what the presstitutes use when they’ve nothing substantive to report to affect and influence those naive enough to view them without proper skepticism or consideration of the sources.
viking01 on September 28, 2008 at 7:03 PM
One thing that we have all witnessed,, is that anything can happen and you never know what is around the corner.
Sarah Palin was a compete surprise. We did have a great convention and it is wrong that so many people seem to be ready to just quit with more than a month to go.
I am still looking and expecting a landslide for McCain!!
These polls are changing on a dime!! Up 9 points in one day,, down 6 points the next!
I have no plans to walk around like some dejected moron talking about the freakin end of the world 38 days before the election. If Obama wins,, he wins. It’ll be an interesting 10 years! ; )
I just am not going to start giving up because of all things,, polls. I know they can be serious,, but I also know Nov 4 has not arrived, yet.
I just know one other thing. I know I witnessed an Obama disaster in that debate. Yet,, I am told that the polls are saying Obama won. I KNOW I SAW WHAT I SAW! And I know other people saw it too! No one is going to change my mind.
JellyToast on September 28, 2008 at 7:09 PM
I don’t believe AllahPundit and Ace at Ace of Spades and others around the center-right blogosphere post these polls to change the minds of people. They post them, I believe, in order to show people what is the conventional wisdom and what work people need to do in order to change it.
Obviously, people on right-of-center blogs are partisan and interpret things in a partisan manner. Also, most of us are political/news junkies, so we interpret things based on having our background info in mind when hearing a quote or viewing an interview or debate. But, not everyone who votes is like us. So these polls help to give an idea of what average, non-political/news junkies are thinking with regards to the campaign. And then it is up to people to take that info and figure out what to do in order to convince more people of the rightness of their candidate, if it looks like the polls show that the conventional wisdom is not in favor of their candidate.
I interpret these as a reality check that the campaign is not a given and lots of hard work remains to help elect McCain/Palin. And a reality check that not everything that is obvious to you and me is obvious to everyone else.
Michael in MI on September 28, 2008 at 7:20 PM
Stop it, stop crying damn it. The MSM is desperate and they’re going to push these poll numbers up higher. Double digit lead for sure, but DON’T BUY IT! They want you to quit and give up, DON’T!
Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight. Nothing is inevitable here. We’re Americans, and we never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history.
El_Terrible on September 28, 2008 at 7:36 PM
Am I the only one who doesn’t care about this election? John McCain being the leader of the GOP/conservative movement doesn’t exactly excite me. Sure, Obama will probably be a horrid commander in chief, but I’d rather a real conservative lead us into the future. You can’t have that happen without cleaning out all the dead wood.
therightwinger on September 28, 2008 at 7:43 PM
You did see it and so did everyone else The reason they give Oslime-a the win is because he presented himself the way they pre-conceived the winner to act. We think McCain won because we were looking to see who had a clear grasp on FP issues. McCain showed he was more adept.
The media and America want something other than Bush. Bush had a grasp of FP and John’s performance remind them of Chimpy.
So no, you are not crazy. You just want to see substantive responses and they want to see anything that doesn’t remind them of “Chimpy”.
Lets face it guys….Bush comes off like a war mongering dimbulb. McCain looks like a war monger and Palin looks like a dimbulb.
That needs to change.
csdeven on September 28, 2008 at 7:53 PM
They did this phony poll BS with Kerry. Never give up. Phony polls are a weapon of the left to make you think it’s over when it’s actually not. Don’t fall for it…
Travis1 on September 28, 2008 at 8:04 PM
I haven’t trusted most polls since I learned what one was. After reading “How to lie with Statistics” that skepticism of polls became increasingly justified. Polls are directed at those too careless to choose their own course of action. The lemmings mentality. The stylish who become stale the instant styles change.
Polls can also be the tool of the lazy “allies” who weren’t sure of their core principles and decide they’d rather be lazy than allies. Chamberlain chose to follow the popular political trends (and the media hype) and look where it got him. Fortunately Churchill followed Chamberlain’s lily-livered appeasement and played the cards he was dealt. The odds Churchill faced were far more dire than some Gallup poll or other blurry snap shot taken on a weekend.
I have another suggestion to any real or pretend Conservatives choosing to wimp out over resolve. Think of those dodging bullets a hemisphere away so you can play chicken or be chicken here. Follow that thought with a reading of Tommy by Rudyard Kipling. Then re-read it a few more times until the cowardice goes away.
viking01 on September 28, 2008 at 8:39 PM