When the Dust Settles

You say "prearranged", he says "coordinated". Stranger things have happened: see the Nordstream pipeline, the Washington-Wuhan Pandemics R Us partnership, etc. And, if you're committed to the region's fetid "stability", last night certainly hits the sweet spot: Iran is permitted to go ballistic, nobody dies, thus discouraging any meaningful Israeli response ...and the three western powers that gave us the modern Middle East get to saddle up and show that the old order still prevails.

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To be sure, forcing the Sunni Arab states to choose between Persia's Shia supremacists and the Jews can be clarifying. But the sense of managed weirdness about last night should not disguise where we're headed on this. Washington's strategic thinking is as backward and befuddled as its nominal leader, while Tehran is patient and forward-looking: a Rubicon was crossed last night, and they would not have done that if they did not feel that it served their purpose and advanced their interests. Israel's suddenly re-enthused "allies" seek to tie its hands; Saturday night, Iran's were loosened.

Ed Morrissey

As I just wrote, I think Israel will see Rafah as the most logical next step to breaking the Iranian proxy-war encirclement strategy. I believe that Jordan and Saudi Arabia will now be better disposed to an assault on Rafah to stamp out Hamas in Gaza now, and to discredit Iran among the Palestinians there. Israel can take its time in a direct response to Iran, thanks to the fact that they didn't do much damage with this barrage. 

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