Poll: Cotton leads Pryor by 9 points among likeliest voters
posted at 12:28 pm on March 11, 2014 by Guy Benson
A scion of privilege whose political career is owed to a prominent surname may not be in the strongest position to critique others for being “entitled.” Futher suggesting that this imputed sense of “entitlement” stems from his opponent’s distinguished military service crosses the boundaries of painful self-unawareness into political self-immolation. And Sen. Mark Pryor’s re-election bid may be burning to the ground:
In Arkansas, a new poll reveals just how important a high turnout will be for Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., who is fighting to keep his seat in the U.S. Senate. Pryor, who has been called the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the 2014 cycle, continues to lag behind his GOP challenger Rep. Tom Cotton. A poll released Monday by Hickman Analytics Inc. shows Cotton with 51 percent support compared to 42 percent for Pryor among voters most likely to turn out in November. Though Pryor has used the firm for polling in the past, he is not currently a client, according to his campaign. Among a broader swath of voters, including those less likely to turnout, Pryor closes the gap with Cotton, with the candidates each tallying 46 percent.
So according to Pryor’s former pollster, the Democrat now trails Rep. Tom Cotton by nine points among the likeliest voters, but manages to pull even if an atypical swath of the electorate turns out for him in November. Will the Democratic cavalry come to his aid? It’s too early to tell, but please direct your attention to an item I posted in mid-January which may be instructive. To recap, a conservative Republican won an Obamacare-focused Arksansas State Senate special election in an historically Democratic district, and in which he was outspent three-to-one. Final margin: 14 points. The vanquished Democrat under-performed in Craighead County, a crucial bellwether area of the district, where Mark Pryor will need to over-perform this fall to have a chance. According to the poll cited above, Pryor is still right-side-up on personal favorability (47/36), but is being weighed down by a deeply unpopular president. The US News write-up says that the incumbent is trying to distance himself from Obamacare, for which he cast the deciding vote, and to which he’s referred as an “amazing success story.”