Green Room

Poll: Cotton leads Pryor by 9 points among likeliest voters

posted at 12:28 pm on March 11, 2014 by

A scion of privilege whose political career is owed to a prominent surname may not be in the strongest position to critique others for being “entitled.”  Futher suggesting that this imputed sense of “entitlement” stems from his opponent’s distinguished military service crosses the boundaries of painful self-unawareness into political self-immolation.  And Sen. Mark Pryor’s re-election bid may be burning to the ground:

In Arkansas, a new poll reveals just how important a high turnout will be for Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., who is fighting to keep his seat in the U.S. Senate. Pryor, who has been called the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the 2014 cycle, continues to lag behind his GOP challenger Rep. Tom Cotton. A poll released Monday by Hickman Analytics Inc. shows Cotton with 51 percent support compared to 42 percent for Pryor among voters most likely to turn out in November. Though Pryor has used the firm for polling in the past, he is not currently a client, according to his campaign. Among a broader swath of voters, including those less likely to turnout, Pryor closes the gap with Cotton, with the candidates each tallying 46 percent.

So according to Pryor’s former pollster, the Democrat now trails Rep. Tom Cotton by nine points among the likeliest voters, but manages to pull even if an atypical swath of the electorate turns out for him in November. Will the Democratic cavalry come to his aid?  It’s too early to tell, but please direct your attention to an item I posted in mid-January which may be instructive.  To recap, a conservative Republican won an Obamacare-focused Arksansas State Senate special election in an historically Democratic district, and in which he was outspent three-to-one.  Final margin: 14 points.   The vanquished Democrat under-performed in Craighead County, a crucial bellwether area of the district, where Mark Pryor will need to over-perform this fall to have a chance.  According to the poll cited above, Pryor is still right-side-up on personal favorability (47/36), but is being weighed down by a deeply unpopular president.  The US News write-up says that the incumbent is trying to distance himself from Obamacare, for which he cast the deciding vote, and to which he’s referred as an “amazing success story.”


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So, where’s Debbie Whats-her-name-Schultz to ride in, trumpeting Obammycare for the Dems who need help?

…and, Bishop!

DublOh7 on March 11, 2014 at 1:46 PM

“You got me!” BHO

jnelchef on March 11, 2014 at 4:00 PM

Faster, please

22044 on March 11, 2014 at 4:38 PM

When your opponent is over 50%, it means it is time to start packing. This is now Cotton’s race to lose, but don’t think he will. Unless Tom does something really bad, Pryor’s days are numbered.

ConservativePartyNow on March 11, 2014 at 4:55 PM

It’d sure be nice if some of the less vulnerable D incumbents caught this rather titillating strain of foot-in-mouth disease. It seems to be quite potent. 🙂

nukemhill on March 11, 2014 at 6:32 PM

The Pryors have done a lot of damage to this country. I will be glad when those days are over.

WannabeAnglican on March 12, 2014 at 8:28 AM

jnelchef on March 11, 2014 at 4:00 PM

I think I know what you did there.

BigAlSouth on March 12, 2014 at 10:16 AM

It’s time for Pryor to fund a libertarian candidate to siphon off Republican votes.

edrebber on March 12, 2014 at 2:41 PM

The Democrats desperately need an issue to motivate their base to vote. Maybe they can get the Republicans to engage in a budget battle that would allow Obama to make needless, draconian cuts to services that impact a lot of people or maybe default on something so he can blame the Republicans for it between now and November. That might work.

crosspatch on March 12, 2014 at 3:50 PM

Sounds like it’s time for a Federal Elections Committee investigation announcement targeting Cotton, about ten days before the election.
It worked for Dick Durbin, courtesy of Lois Lerner. Yes, THAT Lois Lerner.

orangemtl on March 12, 2014 at 7:11 PM

Learn more about Tom Cotton at his campaign website:

Tom Cotton was VERY impressive when I saw him appear on one of the Sunday morning shows several months ago!

wren on March 12, 2014 at 9:21 PM

Please can Mark Warner be beaten in Virginia?

Pretty please?

LibertyJane on April 6, 2014 at 10:54 PM