Green Room

Analysis: It sure looks like the WH’s Medicaid expansion stats are made up

posted at 1:05 am on January 14, 2014 by

The always-sharp Sean Trende first voiced his suspicions about the Obama administration’s official Medicaid numbers last week, arguing that the advertised “4 million new enrollments under Obamacare!” figure was almost certainly a wild exaggeration.  Upon further review, Trende is now convinced he’s right, and that Team Obama is cooking the books to serve their narrative:

There were two major problems with the administration’s numbers. First, of the 4 million new enrollees, more than half of were in states that did not even undertake the Obamacare Medicaid expansion. So we can be pretty comfortable that the number of enrollees due to the ACA is no more than 1.9 million, using the data provided by the administration. (There are probably some previously eligible folk who decided to apply after hearing about the expansion, but their number is likely relatively small.) … The second issue is that of those 1.9 million, some would have enrolled (or re-enrolled) in the program under the pre-expansion rules. Every state had a Medicaid program in place prior to the expansion, although the eligibility level varied widely from state to state, and therefore would have signed up people in the program absent the new funding.

Click through for Trende’s updated analysis, which examines Arkansas as a case study to extrapolate and estimate the true number of newly-eligible Americans who’ve signed up for Medicaid as a result of Obamacare. (Spoiler: It’s less than a quarter of what the administration is bragging about in public).  Meanwhile, the White House won’t tell us what percentage of Americans who have “selected plans” through Obamacare’s exchanges are actually paid up and enrolled.  Not that it necessarily matters; even some of those consumers who’ve followed through on every jot and tittle still haven’t managed to obtain coverage.  Beyond that, HHS’ recent disclosure on the percentage of ‘young invincibles’ within state-level risk pools portends significant adverse selection disruptions ahead.  And the administration’s “cost containment” story is a fiction.  Distorting, withholding and downplaying data: How else is a desperate political operation supposed to shift the punishing winds of public opinion?

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We are now living the real world of Obamacare…..
…and it is major sucktitude.

But wait, oh look, bridge squirrels !

MichaelGabriel on January 14, 2014 at 1:17 PM

…shocked!…I’m shockd!

KOOLAID2 on January 14, 2014 at 1:21 PM

Scandal number 143 of the the Øbama administration that the media is determined to ignore, at any and all costs, including their fading reputations. They figure to make it up on the Republican terms in office, as Bridgeghazi proves beyond the shadow of a doubt. In fact, the idea that the Øbama administration wouldn’t lie about something as verifiable as Medicaid enrollment is patantly laughable. They lie when it isn’t even necessary, just in case….

ExpressoBold on January 14, 2014 at 1:22 PM

SHOCKED!

shockd!

KOOLAID2 on January 14, 2014 at 1:22 PM

Medicaid stats and raw data on “global warming” are both hidden from view.

What do they have in common???

Perhaps a statist agenda which is contradicted by the data??

landlines on January 14, 2014 at 2:13 PM

This is the entire premise of the left vis a vis Obamacare: without it, there would be no healthcare in this country. As if prior to 2009, healthcare was performed by witch doctors and snake oil salesmen. (The irony in that is palpable.)

BKeyser on January 14, 2014 at 2:51 PM

Distorting, withholding and downplaying data: How else is a desperate political operation supposed to shift the punishing winds of public opinion?

We’ll get that answer as soon as our crack team of investigative “journolists” from the LSM get around to it.

OccamsRazor on January 14, 2014 at 4:51 PM

Government officials, including the marxist in the white house, lie to us every day, and every day their lies grow bolder. Our ‘media’, which was so important when we were a free nation, repeats and amplifies that which comes from the mouths of the prevaricators, especially if it comes from the prevaricator-in-chief.
Hitler, Stalin, Mao, and Castro all theorized that if you could control the message you could control the people.
Well guess what is happening here and now?

maryo on January 14, 2014 at 6:44 PM

“What difference, at this point, does it make?”

Ironically, in this case, that’s not an unreasonable response…

bofh on January 14, 2014 at 8:49 PM

Mr. Trende puts the increase at 400,000. Yeah, it looks like the Obama administration cooked the numbers by a factor of 10.

olesparkie on January 15, 2014 at 7:48 AM