Green Room

NJ Senate: Lonegan within three points of Booker?

posted at 11:22 am on October 3, 2013 by

Take this piece of polling data with a boulder of salt; it’s from the Lonegan campaign, has no cross-tabs, and was leaked just as the special election race entering its home stretch.  Nevertheless, independent polling has shown this contest tightening considerably in recent weeks.  Could Steve Lonegan have a shot at pulling off the upset of the century in the Garden State?

Lonegan pollster Rick Shaftan long insisted the race is actually in single digit territory; he tells Save Jersey that their most recent 4-day tracking internal survey shows the race down to a 3-point Booker lead, 47% to 44%.  Shaftan believes a spate of bad press clippings for the frontrunner Democratis taking its toll by driving Booker’s negatives sky-high…

Lonegan has welcomed and touted endorsements from Texas Governor Rick Perry and Sarah Palin in recent days, bold moves for a Jersey pol.  Conservative website Save Jersey explains the strategy:

She won’t make a physical appearance in the state but does plan to utilize social media to advocate for the Republican nominee. Small donor attraction is obviously part of it. Sarah Palin isn’t exactly America’s favorite politician (in fact, she may be among its most polarizing), but the Lonegan camp has pursued a strategy designed around reinvigorating base turnout in an odd-ball special election.

Will juicing the base be sufficient to topple a heavy favorite in a very blue state?  We’ll see on October 16.  Lonegan has been buoyed by a parade of Booker mistakes and embellishments, perhaps leading voters to wonder if the Newark Mayor is, in fact, a “composite” character himself.

Exit Question (Allahpundit ™): A friend asks via email, “where is the Senate Conservatives Fund?”  Good question.  The organization — which has drawn plenty of intra-party fire for relentlessly attacking Republicans over tactical disagreements — is dedicated to “electing true conservatives to the United States Senate,” according to its website.  Well, they don’t make ‘em much truer than Steve Lonegan, yet SCF’s endorsement page looks like this.  By the way, the “establishment” NRSC has lent Lonegan a helping hand.

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Whatever, its New Jersey. If the guy wins, he will lose to the next fake Indian they run.

Massachusetts, New Jersey, can’t tell the difference.

cozmo on October 3, 2013 at 11:28 AM

A friend asks via email, “where is the Senate Conservatives Fund?” Good question.

They don’t have a lot of money on hand right now. The Knoxville, Lexington, and Phoenix media markets are expensive, I guess.

KingGold on October 3, 2013 at 11:28 AM

Can this race be seriously affected one way or the other by the shutdown or does it’s early framing as a personality contest for Booker make it largely immune from D.C. events?

If the latter, then that could be serious trouble for Booker as that golden boy status they’ve relied on has taking a beating over the past month… Granted I don’t believe it’s really a 3 point race. But very likely it has closed to a 8-10 point race with plenty of time…

Gingotts on October 3, 2013 at 11:44 AM

Whatever, its New Jersey. If the guy wins, he will lose to the next fake Indian they run.

Massachusetts, New Jersey, can’t tell the difference.

cozmo on October 3, 2013 at 11:28 AM

Therefore, we shouldn’t contest any races in states bluer than Iowa. Got it.

KingGold on October 3, 2013 at 11:49 AM

Meh>

Booker is The Next One, so whatever needs to be done to for him to win will be done.

Bruno Strozek on October 3, 2013 at 11:51 AM

Bruno – and conversely anything that can be done to put a few scratches and dents on his sheen of inevitability should likewise.

JEM on October 3, 2013 at 12:02 PM

Christie should go out there and hug Lonegan.

Punchenko on October 3, 2013 at 12:09 PM

If the GOP can make a good showing on Tuesday, it will immediately transform the shutdown hassle.

Let’s see if Obama has to go into NJ this weekend — unless this is during his Asian junket.

matthew8787 on October 3, 2013 at 12:16 PM

The spread may be more than 3%, but Lonegan is clearly doing much better than anybody predicted/expected as recently as a month ago. His radio ads against Booker are great, but not much TV up yet because of the high cost of running ads in the NY and Philly markets. Christie has endorsed Lonegan, appeared with him and supports the campaign. Lonegan has volunteers, including me, but needs $$$ to buy more air time. Booker has run an appallingly bad campaign, acting as though he is entitled to the seat, and many of his supporters are taking the result for granted – so last-week ad spending and a strong turnout by conservatives and disaffected independents could ambush the Dem machine and put Lonegan into office – with an early payoff of liberal heads exploding everywhere. Worth an investment/donation just in hopes of such a payoff!

Upstreamer on October 3, 2013 at 12:44 PM

Where’s Crispy Creme? A couple of cracks about Bookers imaginary friends from him would hand Lonegan the seat on a platter. Where’s the party loyalty?

Iblis on October 3, 2013 at 12:45 PM

Where’s Crispy Creme? A couple of cracks about Bookers imaginary friends from him would hand Lonegan the seat on a platter. Where’s the party loyalty?

Iblis on October 3, 2013 at 12:45 PM

Don’t even. Christie’s been busting his ass for Lonegan since day one.

Unlike some other conservatives I could mention, Lonegan actually put party unity over personal spite when he lost the 2009 primary, and Christie’s repaying the favor.

KingGold on October 3, 2013 at 12:51 PM

Whatever, its New Jersey. If the guy wins, he will lose to the next fake Indian they run.

Massachusetts, New Jersey, can’t tell the difference.

cozmo on October 3, 2013 at 11:28 AM

Therefore, we shouldn’t contest any races in states bluer than Iowa. Got it.

KingGold on October 3, 2013 at 11:49 AM

Exactly, KingGold. There are some mental losers who are so invested in their negative predictions, with little or nothing to back them up, that they will continually show up on site threads like this, and post their doom and gloom trash talk. But they will likely never lift a finger in any other way to actually help any conservative candidates.

Trochilus on October 3, 2013 at 12:53 PM

Meh>

Booker is The Next One, so whatever needs to be done to for him to win will be done.

Bruno Strozek on October 3, 2013 at 11:51 AM

Again. The best way to prevent the MSM’s coronation of Barack Obama II in 2016, is to keep him out of the Senate in 2014.

Pull out all the stops. Fight. And don’t just sit back and say “meh.”

Meh = Barack Obama II, AKA Corey Booker

djm1992 on October 3, 2013 at 12:56 PM

Unlike some other conservatives I could mention, Lonegan actually put party unity over personal spite when he lost the 2009 primary, and Christie’s repaying the favor.

KingGold on October 3, 2013 at 12:51 PM

Really? Thats a conservative problem? Maybe thats my fault but when I think of such a behavior I remember names like Lugar, Crist, Murkowski and Castle. Not exactly conservatives.

Valkyriepundit on October 3, 2013 at 1:23 PM

Where’s Crispy Creme? A couple of cracks about Bookers imaginary friends from him would hand Lonegan the seat on a platter. Where’s the party loyalty?

Iblis on October 3, 2013 at 12:45 PM

Don’t even. Christie’s been busting his ass for Lonegan since day one.

Unlike some other conservatives I could mention, Lonegan actually put party unity over personal spite when he lost the 2009 primary, and Christie’s repaying the favor.

KingGold on October 3, 2013 at 12:51 PM

KingGold you are exactly right, once again. Christie has been very supportive of Lonegan’s campaign.

If the GOP can make a good showing on Tuesday, it will immediately transform the shutdown hassle.

Let’s see if Obama has to go into NJ this weekend — unless this is during his Asian junket.

matthew8787 on October 3, 2013 at 12:16 PM

Tuesday? Tuesday? Wrong again. Those who show up on Tuesday will be sent home. The special election is scheduled for Wednesday, October 16th.

That is another reason that there is a fair chance here. If Lonegan and his team put a good effort into their ground game and turnout on the 16th, they can win this thing. It will be tough, but doable. I am sure that anyone who might like to help out would be more than welcome.

There is so much concern about this race on the left, that even Google seems to have subtly taken a partisan position. For example, Google this [ steve lonegan for nj senate ]. The first thing that you will notice on the first page, is that Steve Lonegan’s website does not show up. No link. Nor on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th page either.

Weird, huh? But, the link to Cory Booker’s website does show up in an ad at the top of the first page, and every subsequent page as well.

Anyway, if you happen to be looking for Steve Lonegan’s website, and missed my link to it above, you’ll find it here.

Trochilus on October 3, 2013 at 1:26 PM

Yeah, Chris Christie has put in the work for Steven Lonegan in NJ, contrary to the (hilariously uninformed) assumptions of people here at Hot Air. Believe it or not, Christie ISN’T THE DEVIL.

If Lonegan ends up losing by a slim margin, I hope people have a lot of questions for fake Super-PAC groups like the “Senate Conservative Fund” that exist exclusively to raise $$$$ by attacking Senators in safe GOP seats and don’t even bother to ENDORSE real conservatives running insurgent campaigns in blue ones.

Esoteric on October 3, 2013 at 2:07 PM

They don’t have a lot of money on hand right now. The Knoxville, Lexington, and Phoenix media markets are expensive, I guess.

KingGold on October 3, 2013 at 11:28 AM

If they spend all their time and money attacking incumbent Republicans and viable general election candidates in primaries, are they Trojan Horses like those those Faux Tea Party groups the Dems launch to draw votes from and beat down the viable Republican candidates?

KW64 on October 3, 2013 at 2:08 PM

KingGold on October 3, 2013 at 11:49 AM

Trochilus on October 3, 2013 at 12:53 PM

No sooner than Scott Brown stopped the changes in 0bamamcare, the same people who championed him started tearing into him for not being their kind of conservative.

It already happened to Christie. It will happen to every New England moderate republican.

I’ll let y’all worry over it. I gave up on yankees ever making it back from socialism a long time ago.

cozmo on October 3, 2013 at 2:12 PM

Therefore, we shouldn’t contest any races in states bluer than Iowa. Got it.

KingGold on October 3, 2013 at 11:49 AM

No, people in those states are tards.

Booker will win by ~%15.

tetriskid on October 3, 2013 at 2:18 PM

Lonegan has welcomed and touted endorsements from Texas Governor Rick Perry and Sarah Palin in recent days, bold moves for a Jersey pol.

This guy is smart. Bold is the way to go. You win more support and admiration than you lose.

rrpjr on October 3, 2013 at 2:25 PM

Where has Christie been “all over the place” for Lonegan? I don’t recall seeing one damn ad.

He did, however, show up to bolster Booker in Newark when he opened some facility or other. That was everywhere.

Sorry, I haven’t seen the support.

NJ Red on October 3, 2013 at 2:26 PM

Yeah, Chris Christie has put in the work for Steven Lonegan in NJ

Please, enlighten me. What ads? What appearances? What ANYTHING?

NJ Red on October 3, 2013 at 2:36 PM

“yet SCF’s endorsement page looks like this.” Says AP! Just visited the SCF page in question and there was a picture of my Congressman! Who’d a thunk it?

BZ, Jim!

tomshup on October 3, 2013 at 3:03 PM

Where has Christie been “all over the place” for Lonegan? I don’t recall seeing one damn ad.

He did, however, show up to bolster Booker in Newark when he opened some facility or other. That was everywhere.

Sorry, I haven’t seen the support.

NJ Red on October 3, 2013 at 2:26 PM

Looks like this thread attracted a lot of “Christie 2016″ pumpers.

Doomberg on October 3, 2013 at 3:21 PM

Save Jersey is a Republican website, not a conservative website. Big difference.

keepinitreal on October 3, 2013 at 3:46 PM

Don’t even. Christie’s been busting his ass for Lonegan since day one.

KingGold on October 3, 2013 at 12:51 PM

Yeah, Chris Christie has put in the work for Steven Lonegan in NJ, contrary to the (hilariously uninformed) assumptions of people here at Hot Air. Believe it or not, Christie ISN’T THE DEVIL.

Esoteric on October 3, 2013 at 2:07 PM

Gov. Chris Christie, a more moderate Republican, also endorsed Lonegan, but he is not expected to actively campaign for him.

I guess when you’re as heavy as Christie is, “busting ass” and “putting in the work” have a somewhat lesser meaning than most of us imagine.

Unlike some other conservatives I could mention, Lonegan actually put party unity over personal spite when he lost the 2009 primary, and Christie’s repaying the favor.

KingGold on October 3, 2013 at 12:51 PM

I trust you have similar scorn for moderate sore losers like Lugar who didn’t lift a finger to support the more conservative victor in their primary.

Kafir on October 3, 2013 at 4:18 PM

cozmo on October 3, 2013 at 2:12 PM

Gee, this is the first time I recall anyone claiming that New Jersey is in New England . . . but hey . . . think what you want!

Facts obviously mean little to you, and you keep claiming to know exactly what is going to happen, without any basis to your opinions.

So, just keep up with the stupid doom and gloom predictions. They will help no one but you, in the event one of them happens to come true. That way, you can then run right back here and say, “See, I told you so!”

But you won’t have lifted a finger to help the cause. How about actually doing something?

As for the other naysayers, I happen to know that Christie has been helping Lonegan. Friends directly involved in Lonegan’s campaign have told me so. And, he’s running his own race this year for reelection as well. Right after the Senate Seat special election primary in August, Christie immediately helda big joint appearance event with Steve Lonegan right here in Hunterdon County, with a good endorsement.

Trochilus on October 3, 2013 at 5:25 PM

Trochilus on October 3, 2013 at 5:25 PM

Aw shucks honey, I am the one who understands a RINO in yankeeland is the best we are going to get.

I make no claims. However, you are making the claim that Christie is helping Lonegan while all I have seen is Christie with 0bama, or Christie with Booker.

Granted, my only “on the ground” information comes from a lib in Princeton, but she makes no claims about Christie supporting any republican. She does compare him favorably with Bloomberg though.

While I did mention New Jersey in the same sentence as New England, I realize that New jersey doesn’t have the stature to be included in most subsets of states.

cozmo on October 3, 2013 at 5:59 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRTSrun6htA

this should be seen as to what booker is NOT doing as mayor

lostinjrz on October 3, 2013 at 8:01 PM

Lonergan has way, way, way outperformed projections. That issues settled, regardless of whether he loses by five or fifteen points. Obama took NJ by a much bigger margin, and Booker was personally even more popular than the president at the start of the race.

What should Republicans take from the Lonergan performance? Being ideological is a winning proposition. Trying to be a less ideological Democrat/Centrist type, as Romney and amcVain both tried to be, is a terribly flawed, losing proposition.

These are settled facts now, at least in New Jersey.

MTF on October 3, 2013 at 8:25 PM

Now that Lonegan asked for, and has just received Sarah Palin’s endorsement, we’ll see if that 3 point gap closes

the relatively late timing for her endorsement was deliberate I think …. this often happens if she endorses in a ‘blue’ State

exodus2011 on October 3, 2013 at 9:10 PM

I’m not gonna get my hopes up. Last time I listened to the polls I spent election night 2012 near suicidal. I’m just gonna assume the next unqualified black President of the USA will win his Senate seat.

Jack_Burton on October 3, 2013 at 10:05 PM

The spread may be more than 3%, but Lonegan is clearly doing much better than anybody predicted/expected as recently as a month ago. His radio ads against Booker are great, but not much TV up yet because of the high cost of running ads in the NY and Philly markets. Christie has endorsed Lonegan, appeared with him and supports the campaign. Lonegan has volunteers, including me, but needs $$$ to buy more air time. Booker has run an appallingly bad campaign, acting as though he is entitled to the seat, and many of his supporters are taking the result for granted – so last-week ad spending and a strong turnout by conservatives and disaffected independents could ambush the Dem machine and put Lonegan into office – with an early payoff of liberal heads exploding everywhere. Worth an investment/donation just in hopes of such a payoff!

Upstreamer on October 3, 2013 at 12:44 PM

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

I’m campaigning for and voting for Lonegan in the special election, but doing neither for Chris Christie.

njrob on October 3, 2013 at 10:56 PM