Green Room

Virginia poll: McAuliffe’s lead cut in half, margin of error race

posted at 11:38 am on September 18, 2013 by

The mere fact that a comeback is necessary against this buffoon is sufficiently depressing that we’ll move on to the relatively encouraging news.  The race is a toss-up, and far from over:

With just over a month and a half to go until Election Day, a new poll indicates a close contest in Virginia’s gubernatorial battle.  Democratic businessman Terry McAuliffe and Republican state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli are basically all knotted up, according to a Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday morning.  The poll indicates McAuliffe, the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, at 44% among likely commonwealth voters, with Cuccinelli at 41%. The three point margin for McAuliffe, who lost a bid for the 2009 Democratic gubernatorial nomination, is within the survey’s sampling error.  McAuliffe held a six point 48%-42% lead over Cuccinelli in the previous Quinnipiac poll, which was conducted in mid-August. And surveys from other organizations also indicated McAuliffe with a single-digit advantage over Cuccinelli.  The new poll suggests that Robert Sarvis, the Libertarian candidate who stands at 7%, could hold a key to the November election.

CNN’s characterization of McAuliffe as a “businessman” is a bit generous, but we’ll let it slide.  How were they supposed to identify him?  Partisan influence peddler and fundraiser?  Come to think of it, yes — that would be much more accurate.  But I digress.  Cuccinelli’s struggles can be directly traced to the gender gap.  He trails among women by 14 points, indicating that the McAuliffe campaign’s efforts to paint the Republican as a misogynist have been effective.  Cuccinelli must mitigate this damage to have a shot.  The two candidates are tied with independents.  Interestingly, the Libertarian Party candidate is currently pulling seven percent of the vote.  There are glimmers of hope for Cuccinelli in the crosstabs, not the least of which is the overall tightening of the race.  Voters still have less of an impression of McAuliffe in either direction, meaning that the GOP still has some space (and limited time) to re-introduce the Democratic nominee to voters.  They might not be enamored with embarrassing ignorance on issues, federal investigations, and party-first boorishness.  44-41 = lots of undecided, unengaged, and unhappy potential voters.  Also, the Cuccinelli campaign insists that the poll sample — and many of the recent poll samples — use Democrat-heavy 2012 turnout models, which they contend are poor metrics for measuring an off-year electorate.  Normally I’d find that argument compelling,  but similar rationalizations led many of us astray in the presidential election, so I’m not inclined to seriously entertain those arguments.  If nothing else, the new Q-poll makes the political team at National Journal look smart.  Just yesterday, they wrote a consensus-busting piece about how Virginia’s gubernatorial race was no done deal.  Crunch time.

Recently in the Green Room:

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

CNN’s characterization of McAuliffe as a “businessman” is a bit generous, but we’ll let it slide. How were they supposed to identify him?

Faux businessman?

Kafir on September 18, 2013 at 11:55 AM

Clinton lackey?

cmsinaz on September 18, 2013 at 11:58 AM

The DNC has been spending a lot of money on mailers trying to paint Cuccinelli as anti-Medicaid and anti-Social Security.

The DNC wants this state really bad. They think if they can drag McAuliffe across the finish line that it will cement the idea that Virginia is now a blue state.

ButterflyDragon on September 18, 2013 at 12:03 PM

Hope on the horizon!

Jack_Burton on September 18, 2013 at 12:29 PM

I live in Soviet VA, and McAuliffe is running about 2x the number of ads as Cuccinelli. All of McAuliffe’s ads are attacks on Ken (wants to end all abortions & divorces, global warming “denier” (yes they actually said that)).

Ken has one about McAuliffe making himself a millionaire off a company that went bankrupt and another about Ken rescuing (and later hiring) some black dude that was falsely accused of murder, I think.

McAuliffe is such a crook that this should be an easy win. But, the country is going to hell, so here we are sweating out races that should have be easy wins.

crrr6 on September 18, 2013 at 12:45 PM

McAuliffe is such a crook that this should be an easy win. But, the country is going to hell, so here we are sweating out races that should have be easy wins.

crrr6 on September 18, 2013 at 12:45 PM

I agree, but it would have been an easy win if Bolling was running for governor. The establishment is not excited about Ken becoming governor.

Punchenko on September 18, 2013 at 12:58 PM

Said it in another thread, but will someone please ask mcauliffe what ahould be done about assault rifles so we can get folks here in SW VA fired up to defeat him.

Lost in Jersey on September 18, 2013 at 1:21 PM

I agree, but it would have been an easy win if Bolling was running for governor. The establishment is not excited about Ken becoming governor.

Punchenko on September 18, 2013 at 12:58 PM

What exactly would we “win” with Bolling, considering he’s shown himself to be the type of person who supports McAuliffe?

SD on September 18, 2013 at 1:21 PM

Interestingly, the Libertarian Party candidate is currently pulling seven percent

Giving the Left electoral gains for four decades. We are the Libertarian Party.

mankai on September 18, 2013 at 1:22 PM

If VA actually elects the narcissitic liar, southern VA should form its own state.

North Virginia
South Virginia
West Virginia

mankai on September 18, 2013 at 1:24 PM

Aww crap! I thought GB was George Bush!

Lanceman on September 18, 2013 at 1:52 PM

Funny how these pollsters dramatically shift their projections as the actual election gets closer.

Cuccinelli is actually going to win by 8-10 pts on election day. look for the polls to have moved to a 2-4 pt lead for him by then.

Freddy on September 18, 2013 at 2:08 PM

will someone please ask mcauliffe what ahould be done about assault rifles so we can get folks here in SW VA fired up to defeat him.

Lost in Jersey on September 18, 2013 at 1:21 PM

.
Exactly… then ask him if he favors a repeal of the open carry law in Virginia, which is now unrestricted.

ExpressoBold on September 18, 2013 at 2:19 PM

McAuliffe better call his buddies in DC and bus in a few thousand voters.

itsspideyman on September 18, 2013 at 3:04 PM

Funny how these pollsters dramatically shift their projections as the actual election gets closer.

Cuccinelli is actually going to win by 8-10 pts on election day. look for the polls to have moved to a 2-4 pt lead for him by then.

Freddy on September 18, 2013 at 2:08 PM

That would be awesome!

McAuliffe’s running lots of ads but ads start to diminish in usefulness as people get turned off by negativity.

Cuccinelli’s running an effective ground game and recently won a key endorsement in NoVa.

He can do this!

22044 on September 18, 2013 at 3:06 PM

Just had an interesting thought….

I can’t wait until the Texas gubenatorial race, hopefully between Greg Abbott and Wendy Davis. I will be particularly interested in how the women’s vote is split. Dems will probably complain that Abbott won by a landslide because Republican mysogenists kept the women barefoot and pregnant and away from the polls.

NOMOBO on September 18, 2013 at 3:06 PM

NOMOBO on September 18, 2013 at 3:06 PM

Anecdotal bumper sticker surveys are meaningless, but here in Austin I’ve seen about 6 Abbott stickers and 2 Davis stickers so far.

I guess that might change if Davis officially runs. From what I hear she’ll be lucky to hold on to the seat she has, but I’ve been wrong before (although not about any Texas races).

Missy on September 18, 2013 at 4:03 PM

McCauliffe has pretty much modeled his entire adult life after Joe Isuzu.

Tim Zank on September 18, 2013 at 5:11 PM

I agree, but it would have been an easy win if Bolling was running for governor. The establishment is not excited about Ken becoming governor.

Punchenko on September 18, 2013 at 12:58 PM

Easy win for McAuliffe, that is. The GOP/PRL Establishment wants to go back to the minority.

Steve Eggleston on September 19, 2013 at 9:57 AM

I cannot WAIT to vote Cuccinelli. I am so over broken glass motivated that I even venture into the malarial swamp that is the WaPo comments section and interact with the loons who wallow there.

And, fellow Hot Airians, I want to say that I have supported good candidates all around the country in your states, and I think you should open up your wallet and throw a tenner Ken’s way and help us out here in Virginia.

He is a good guy, solid, excellent and I want him for Governor.

Also, the libs will plotz!

perries on September 19, 2013 at 11:09 AM