Green Room

PPP: We didn’t believe our own Colorado recall election poll, so we spiked it

posted at 11:09 am on September 12, 2013 by

Jim Geraghty asks the obvious question:  What else haven’t they been telling us?  Skewed:

Tom Jensen of the Democrat-campaign affiliated polling firm, Public Policy Polling: “We did a poll last weekend in Colorado Senate District 3 and found that voters intended to recall Angela Giron by a 12 point margin, 54/42. In a district that Barack Obama won by almost 20 points I figured there was no way that could be right and made a rare decision not to release the poll. It turns out we should have had more faith in our numbers becaue [sic] she was indeed recalled by 12 points.”  It’s a free country, and if PPP doesn’t want to release a result, they’re free to eat the costs and keep a survey result to themselves.  But the rest of us are free to wonder just how “rare” it is for PPP to not release a poll, and what other results they’ve withheld from public release.

As for the twin upsets themselves, Erika has already thoroughly mocked Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s fever-swamp paranoia about “voter suppression,” or whatever — but there’s another, totally-predictable element to Democrats’ denial and excuse-making:

“Tuesday’s low turnout was a result of efforts by the NRA, the Koch brothers, and other right-wing groups…”

Those infernal right-wing moneybags strike again.  Except…which side spent more money on the races? (Spoiler: it wasn’t even close):

Senate President John Morse and state Sen. Angela Giron lost their seats in the state’s first-ever legislative recall election, despite the support of New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, hundreds of ground troops from groups like Organizing for America, and a 7-to-1 spending advantage.

Here’s Charles Cooke, on how Democrats pulled out all the stops to beat back two local recall efforts — and failed:

By the end of the process, so anxious were the opponents of the recall that they felt compelled to rely heavily on Michael Bloomberg, who sent $350,000 to Colorado to fight the threat; members of Obama’s ground team were brought in to boost turnout, and even former president Bill Clinton was wheeled in at the last minute to try to tip the scales.  None of it worked. This was the recall that never supposed to happen — let alone be successful. The nine men who set the ball rolling weren’t supposed to be capable of organizing a town hall, let alone taking down the state-senate president. And yet they did it. Victor Head, a plumber who had never been politically active, took down a senator in a district that went Democratic in 2012 by ten points; a group of six concerned men from the AR15.com chat room removed the state’s top-ranking legislator. “We are a quiet people,” recall founder Tim Knight told his victorious friends when the results became known at the Stargazers Theater. “You may be tempted to ignore us. Clearly, that would be a mistake.”

It was a mistake, and the gun control lobby suffered a stunning double blow.  Which is why shell-shocked Democrats are reduced to muttering about “suppression” and the Koch Brothers.

Recently in the Green Room:

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PPP(D): McAwful by 7 in VA.

Dude?????

Eph on September 12, 2013 at 11:19 AM

The MSM pollers withheld something damaging to their side? Color me surprised./ Can you imagine the dirt these idiots have on Obozo that they are sitting on?

neyney on September 12, 2013 at 11:35 AM

The spiked PPP poll tells the tale, folks. They can’t plausibly claim their voters were kept from the polls. That’s the big problem with coalition politics. You can’t guarantee your voters are all on board with every single scrap and tittle of The Agenda (TM). Liberal Pueblo-ites like their guns.

Sekhmet on September 12, 2013 at 11:56 AM

Piss Poor Polsters

astonerii on September 12, 2013 at 12:00 PM

This was the antithesis of the Wisconsin recall elections. Which is why the media wasn’t really interested in it, I suppose. And why, despite the actual numbers showing the recalls going through, the media and pollsters didn’t seem to think that there was much to see.

besser tot als rot on September 12, 2013 at 12:06 PM

So, we can now officially put PPP in the Zogby “thumb on the scale” category?

besser tot als rot on September 12, 2013 at 12:06 PM

astonerii on September 12, 2013 at 12:00 PM

What is weird is that if they had actually released the polling it probably would have upped the Democrat turnout. There is far too much stupid in places of responsibility for my comfort.

Cindy Munford on September 12, 2013 at 12:15 PM

Oh Good! This is the day when “PPP? Yeah, right!” became reasonable and valid in the political blog lexicon… and anywhere else, really. LOL

ExpressoBold on September 12, 2013 at 12:21 PM

sorry but I agree with PPP here.

A poll like this that seems so out of whack given historical trends, I would be hesitant to publish it whether it was for or against my party.

PPP developed a reputation for accuracy during the 2012 election. Why ruin that by taking a risk on a one time poll in an off year recall race which have notoriously wacky turnout? Better to be cautious and refrain from publishing.

Kudos to them for owning up to it after the fact and explaining what they did.

It would be like a scientist running an experiment one time, getting unexpected results, and immediately publishing them. That would be reckless.

commodore on September 12, 2013 at 12:30 PM

The Obama administration likely had internal poll numbers for CO, and knew that the recall elections would be really big news…

… so they scheduled Obama’s 9/10 speech to provide a major distraction in that news cycle…

ITguy on September 12, 2013 at 12:31 PM

sorry but I agree with PPP here.

A poll like this that seems so out of whack given historical trends, I would be hesitant to publish it whether it was for or against my party.

commodore on September 12, 2013 at 12:30 PM

You are arguing that only polls that match up with your preconceived notions should be published. If that is the standard, why conduct polls at all? Just give your opinion on the state of the race.

besser tot als rot on September 12, 2013 at 12:34 PM

“We did a poll last weekend in Colorado Senate District 3 and found that voters intended to recall Angela Giron by a 12 point margin, 54/42. In a district that Barack Obama won by almost 20 points…”

Hee hee.

The political careers of Morse and Giron are pretty much over. I wonder if they’re starting to regret hitching their wagons to the 0bama train yet.

UltimateBob on September 12, 2013 at 12:56 PM

So wait, the genius, informed and dedicated Democrat voter couldn’t manage to vote but the idiot, redneck, illiterate Republican voter did?

Oh that’s right, Democrats don’t drive cars, greenhouse gases you know. So unfair.

mitchellvii on September 12, 2013 at 1:00 PM

Apparently PPP’s polling in Giron’s district (recall by 12, same as actual result) showed Tancredo tied with Hickenlooper. Obama won Giron’s district by almost 20 points in 2012.

steebo77 on September 12, 2013 at 1:11 PM

a 7-to-1 spending advantage.

Just spreading the wealth around!!! Thanks, Mr Bloomberg.

Did the Koch’s suppress the vote by NOT sending money? How does that work?

jdpaz on September 12, 2013 at 1:21 PM

. There is far too much stupid in places of responsibility for my comfort.

Cindy Munford on September 12, 2013 at 12:15 PM

Put that on a bumper sticker and you’ll make a million bucks!

Words to live by, for sure!

Bruno Strozek on September 12, 2013 at 1:25 PM

They didn’t release the poll because they didn’t want progressive voters to stay home. Is there no integrity left in politics at any level?

cajunpatriot on September 12, 2013 at 1:33 PM

Is PPP something like chris matthews feels about obama?

Old Country Boy on September 12, 2013 at 1:44 PM

Polling shows trends, meaning it is a benchmark over where the public is going. The people can change their minds if they want to, that means different polls will show different results, not just the ones you want.

PPP really has egg on their face after this one.

NerwenAldarion on September 12, 2013 at 1:46 PM

PPP confirmed today that it is part of the vast MFM/Leftist Echo Chamber. They are unable to believe the results of their own polls that show evidence of life outside the Echo Chamber and spiked the results.

PPP was last seen wandering around in Wonder Land trying to find an Electorate that would support its presuppositions. After running into Al Gore they realized that they were in the Echo Chamber with him and that they had just spiked their last lifeline from the outside world…

ajacksonian on September 12, 2013 at 1:55 PM

And the professional thing to do is to report the poll and the historical background and if you can’t figure out why the poll doesn’t conform with past trends: YOU SAY SO and YOU REPORT THE POLL ANYWAY.

If it isn’t a trend then something is wrong in your polling arrangement and it can be addressed after the confirmation of it.

If it is a trend and you can’t figure it out, then you are merely human.

If it is a trend and you don’t report it you have no ethics and no professionalism.

PPP has announced today they have no ethics nor professionalism.

The poll was something they couldn’t understand so they denied that it said what it said to themselves. If you are a pollster you stock and trade, your bread and butter, your very lifeblood is reporting out trends that you have professionally found via polling. If you can’t understand it, so what? You still report it since you garnered it via a known set of means that have produced good results previously.

How can anyone trust PPP on anything from here on out if they will not report what they have found professionally just because they can’t understand it? The world is full of surprises and these guys are the ones who are supposed to find the surprises and point them out. That is what gets you this thing known as: paying customers.

ajacksonian on September 12, 2013 at 2:24 PM

OK who paid for a poll and didn’t get the results? That is who should be mad at them the most. Some person or organization paid to have the poll(s) taken, what were they told and when, or did PPP just blow them off?

Johnnyreb on September 12, 2013 at 2:39 PM

Cindy Munford on September 12, 2013 at 12:15 PM

I agree with that completely. It would have increased the imperative for the gun grabbers to go to the polls and maybe even depressed some of the pro gun people due to feeling unneeded to win.

So, they helped us out in the long game. But it is just so funny how they do not believe their own polls! If anyone should believe in the polls, it should be the people doing the polling.

So, it kind of makes you wonder if they do not in fact know that their methods are flawed (on purpose).

astonerii on September 12, 2013 at 2:45 PM

“We totally predicted this. We…uhh…just didn’t tell anyone. Yeah, that’s the ticket!”

DamnCat on September 12, 2013 at 3:07 PM

How dare PPP spike a poll that would have millions of OFA canvassers and SEIU “Purple People Beaters” out to get those lazy ass welfare and tax assisted Democrat voters out to the polls!

Oh, and where were the OFA and Democrat ward bosses and healers “with their fingers on the pulse of their voters”?

Didn’t they notice a slight, yet later overwhelming changing of political parties, on-line, at the DMV or Post Office(s)?

Two quote the Sixth Rule of Warfare:

“$hit happens!”

Jack Deth on September 12, 2013 at 3:18 PM

What a great victory. To hell with PPP and dEmocrats….

ted c on September 12, 2013 at 4:41 PM

woke up Tuesday and found out the Texans had won
woke up Wednesday to this news
woke up today and saw Cantor knows we’re on to him
and Obama has been getting his azz handed to him every day
One of the better weeks in awhile I’d say.

DanMan on September 12, 2013 at 5:06 PM

So, we can now officially put PPP in the Zogby “thumb on the scale” category?

besser tot als rot on September 12, 2013 at 12:06 PM

No silly. PPP proved, once again, how accurate their polls are. Whether they release a poll has nothing to do with its accuracy…

libfreeordie on September 12, 2013 at 5:13 PM

No silly. PPP proved, once again, how accurate their polls are. Whether they release a poll has nothing to do with its accuracy…

libfreeordie on September 12, 2013 at 5:13 PM

Really, libwit? It doesn’t matter if they trusted in the accuracy of their own polling?! Careful. I’m liable to roll my eyes back so hard that they’ll get stuck.

gryphon202 on September 12, 2013 at 5:23 PM

No silly. PPP proved, once again, how accurate their polls are. Whether they release a poll has nothing to do with its accuracy…

libfreeordie on September 12, 2013 at 5:13 PM

Really? My personal polling that I’ll always release the day after every election is never wrong.

besser tot als rot on September 12, 2013 at 5:27 PM

Anyway, I think PPP’s Zogby-esque “thumb on the scale” status is well known.

besser tot als rot on September 12, 2013 at 5:29 PM

No silly. PPP proved, once again, how accurate their polls are. Whether they release a poll has nothing to do with its accuracy…

libfreeordie on September 12, 2013 at 5:13 PM

Nate Silver and Nate Cohn are hacking away at PPP for its accuracy.

Oh, and both are liberals.

sentinelrules on September 12, 2013 at 5:30 PM

Anyway, I think PPP’s Zogby-esque “thumb on the scale” status is well known.

besser tot als rot on September 12, 2013 at 5:29 PM

I don’t think it’s necessarily a nefarious politically aligned scheme. But I am with ajacksonian, in that it speaks extremely poorly to me of PPP’s professionalism as a polling firm.

gryphon202 on September 12, 2013 at 5:42 PM

and made a rare decision not to release the poll.

Soooo. It wasn’t the first time and probably will happen again, eh? Good to know. Next PPP’ll admit to overweighing them on occasion to get the desired result.

AH_C on September 13, 2013 at 1:28 AM

PPP is a partisan polling outfit. We know it, they don’t hide it. And they did have a good run in 2012 – weren’t they one of the closest to correct? Now maybe they were well informed about the real voter supression done by Obama and the IRS and took that into account.

If I had a 20 point swing in a year in a district I probably would have hesitated to publish as well. And in reality – that probably helped the recall. Had they published, the marginally interested gun control advocate might have shown up and voted. So thank you PPP. They helped maintain the facade that the recall wouldn’t work and that all that out of state money coming in would save the day.

Zomcon JEM on September 13, 2013 at 9:01 AM