Green Room

Virginia gubernatorial poll: McAuliffe 40, Cuccinelli 39

posted at 6:14 pm on January 9, 2013 by

Since it looks like Chris Christie has the New Jersey situation pretty much locked up, at least for now, the race for governorship of purpley Virginia is probably going to be the most exciting polling and election news we have on the docket for 2013. At this very preliminary moment, survey says we’re in for a tight race:

Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cuccinelli are running neck and neck early in the 2013 race for governor of Virginia, according to a poll today by  Quinnipiac University.

McAuliffe, the McLean-based, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee turned green energy entrepreneur, draws 40 percent of voters surveyed to 39 percent for Cuccinelli, the firebrand conservative former state senator who was elected attorney general in 2009. Nearly one in five vogters are undecided. …

The survey was conducted Jan. 4-7 of 1,134 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The survey consisted of live interviewers calling voters on land lines and cell phones.

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Can we possibly put the kibosh on all horserace polling until at least June? Not only is it indicative of nothing, it’s shameless traffic-bait.

For the love of heaven, after the overdose last year, maybe we can climb down a bit.

KingGold on January 9, 2013 at 6:17 PM

It’s gonna be tough for Cuccinelli to win this. He’s one major “accomplishment” has been spearheading the Obamacare lawsuit — that failed in the SCOTUS. He’s not as popular as McDonnell here in VA, and it looks like he may get a 3rd party challenge from the Lt. Gov Bill Bolling.

Don’t hold your breath on the VA Gov’s Mansion staying red.

SAMinVA on January 9, 2013 at 6:31 PM

Bolling won’t run as a 3rd party option. Of that I’m pretty certain.

And VA will probably get fatigued with Democrats again. The good news is Cuccinelli knows how to win elections.

22044 on January 9, 2013 at 6:33 PM

Not sure how this is a tough call for VA McAuliffe was a effing douche when he was DNC chair, but we somehow stupidly re-elected Sherrod Brown out here.

gsherin on January 9, 2013 at 6:43 PM

“And VA will probably get fatigued with Democrats again. The good news is Cuccinelli knows how to win elections.”

Yeah… I thought that about the country too.

SAMinVA on January 9, 2013 at 6:44 PM

After last election, let’s say I don’t trust the polling. Or the analysis of the polls.

Oil Can on January 9, 2013 at 6:46 PM

There is no such thing as “exciting polling news” and you should be ashamed.

Spliff Menendez on January 9, 2013 at 6:51 PM

“Green energy entrepreneur”? So, he’s a thief. A liar. A crony “capitalist” using his government connections to make a fortune off taxpayers.

boko fittleworth on January 9, 2013 at 7:23 PM

“Green energy entrepreneur”? So, he’s a thief. A liar. A crony “capitalist” using his government connections to make a fortune off taxpayers.

boko fittleworth on January 9, 2013 at 7:23 PM

Virginians won’t be pleased when they learn that he built his businesses in Mississippi instead of Virginia.

22044 on January 9, 2013 at 7:38 PM

We get the government we deserve. Virginia should think about that. Maryland is right next door to show them what happens.

ojfltx on January 9, 2013 at 7:51 PM

After last election, let’s say I don’t trust the polling. Or the analysis of the polls.

Oil Can on January 9, 2013 at 6:46 PM

Don’t despair, I just spoke to the “Unskewed Polls” guy. He said by the end of the week he will have Cuccinelli up by 6 points.

smokin hot politics on January 9, 2013 at 7:58 PM

This matches what both sides in VA are expecting: a tough, smash mouth, grind-it-out, close race.

McAuliffe is personally very wealthly and is basically the best fundraiser in the history of the Democratic party, so he’ll be flush with cash. I’ve heard speculation that he’s budgeting as much as $50M on this race. Cuccinelli won’t be able to raise cash as quickly as McAuliffe, but he should be able to keep pace and by the end I’m convinced he’ll be financially competitive.

Cuccinelli’s going to have to really be aggressive in taking the messaging fight to McAuliffe and in building a vast, precinct-by-precinct turnout operation.

Robert_Paulson on January 9, 2013 at 8:45 PM

Undecided vogters really are a pain….

dczombie on January 9, 2013 at 9:05 PM

In a sane world, McAuliffe’s candidacy would be DOA with the taint of Global Crossings. But we live in an incredibly stupid time, dominated by selfish, lazy, ignorant people. Couple that with a GOP establishment consultancy that can’t wait to screw this up and the Clintonoid a-hole with the hair plugs is a shoo-in.

fitzfong on January 9, 2013 at 9:28 PM

I’m finding it difficult to care right now.

Othniel on January 9, 2013 at 9:58 PM

This matches what both sides in VA are expecting: a tough, smash mouth, grind-it-out, close race.

McAuliffe is personally very wealthly and is basically the best fundraiser in the history of the Democratic party, so he’ll be flush with cash. I’ve heard speculation that he’s budgeting as much as $50M on this race. Cuccinelli won’t be able to raise cash as quickly as McAuliffe, but he should be able to keep pace and by the end I’m convinced he’ll be financially competitive.

Cuccinelli’s going to have to really be aggressive in taking the messaging fight to McAuliffe and in building a vast, precinct-by-precinct turnout operation.

Robert_Paulson on January 9, 2013 at 8:45 PM

Good points, worth a repost.

22044 on January 9, 2013 at 10:04 PM

Oh but wait, the sampling was D+6 which is totally off…if we re-sample the data to D+2 then Cuccinelli has this totally in the bag.

Queue Karl Rove melt down in 3….2…..1….

powerpickle on January 9, 2013 at 10:35 PM

The dynamics here as the year plays out will be interesting. One thing 2009 and 2010 had in common with 1993 and 1994 was that in both cases, after Democratic wins and gains at the national level, the party couldn’t keep up the intensity of their voters for the off-year elections. Like a team that just won a championship, they didn’t have the same kind of fire to repeat that the following year.

For 2013, do the Republican voters turn out, and do the low-information voters the Democrats got out in November stay home, as they did four years ago, because it’s hard to keep those voters perpetually fearful of the scary Republican nominee of the moment if he or she isn’t on the national ticket?

jon1979 on January 9, 2013 at 10:45 PM

After last election, let’s say I don’t trust the polling. Or the analysis of the polls.

Oil Can on January 9, 2013 at 6:46 PM

I don’t trust the voting either.

forest on January 10, 2013 at 7:57 AM

Wait just a minute here, what happen to Bob McDonnell?

BigGator5 on January 10, 2013 at 8:23 AM

Without Dear Leader on the ballot to turn out the morons and the deadbeats whose government paycheck only requires them to show up once every four years to work, this will be a different election than November last.

But McCauliffe will raise money and fight dirty and aggressively.

I hope we have learned by now that winning entails that sort of thing.

Malachi45 on January 10, 2013 at 8:37 AM

McAuliffe, the McLean-based, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee turned green energy entrepreneur rent-seeker…

There.

petefrt on January 10, 2013 at 9:26 AM

Wait just a minute here, what happen to Bob McDonnell?

BigGator5 on January 10, 2013 at 8:23 AM

McDonnell is a good governor, but he can’t run for a consecutive term.

22044 on January 10, 2013 at 9:47 AM

If McAwful can’t get more than 40 percent now, he’s done.

Then again, I thought the same thing about a sitting president who rarely seemed to crest 50, so what do I know.

Red Cloud on January 10, 2013 at 9:56 AM

McDonnell is a good governor, but he can’t run for a consecutive term.

22044 on January 10, 2013 at 9:47 AM

Yeah, I just looked that up. I can understand term limits, but that seems kinda of silly to me.

Whatever works for Virginia I guess.

BigGator5 on January 10, 2013 at 10:13 AM

Oh but wait, the sampling was D+6 which is totally off…if we re-sample the data to D+2 then Cuccinelli has this totally in the bag.

Queue Karl Rove melt down in 3….2…..1….

powerpickle on January 9, 2013 at 10:35 PM

The question is would the PARASITES who voted in 2012 for Obama and the democrats be energized enough to go and vote in 2013?…

mnjg on January 10, 2013 at 10:34 AM

Something to bear in mind is that parts of the Commonwealth that shade blue for presidential elections don’t turn out in numbers for others, and many of those portions of Virginia are going to be less inclined to pull the lever for potentially further Defense cuts. The various military-centered portions of Virginia are now really starting to feel the squeeze of Democrat-powered defense cuts, and will be reluctant to further those cuts.

Sgt Steve on January 10, 2013 at 11:05 AM

McAuliffe is going to run as a centrist Mark Warner type Democrat. Will be hard for Cuccinelli to win because he will get buried in Northern Virginia, where McAuliffe lives. Bob McDonnell won in 2009 because he carried NoVa.

rockmom on January 10, 2013 at 12:38 PM

McAuliffe is going to run as a centrist Mark Warner type Democrat. Will be hard for Cuccinelli to win because he will get buried in Northern Virginia, where McAuliffe lives. Bob McDonnell won in 2009 because he carried NoVa.

rockmom on January 10, 2013 at 12:38 PM

Why did McDonnell carry North Virginia in 2009?

mnjg on January 10, 2013 at 1:16 PM

“Virginia gubernatorial poll: McAuliffe 40, Cuccinelli 39″
…add in MASSIVE d-cRAT voting fraud, and mcauliffe walks away with a “win.”

TeaPartyNation on January 10, 2013 at 2:04 PM

Creigh Deeds ran as a centrist Democrat too.
He won the nomination because he was perceived as the most centrist of the three nominees.

We can’t get cocky, but this race is winnable.

22044 on January 10, 2013 at 2:08 PM