Green Room

Map of the day: The 2012 state-by-state presidential trend analysis

posted at 4:04 pm on November 21, 2012 by

A neat data set from John Ekdahl. Take a hard look at the first map, especially. That’s a nifty explanation, in a single image, for why so many conservatives (me included) thought Romney might pull the upset on election day. We figured four years of a bad economy and liberal disillusionment with Hopenchange combined with a powerful conservative zeal to beat him would mean a redder map this time. And … it was redder, in nearly every state. Just not red enough. O’s unique “achievement” this year was losing lots and lots of votes he’d won four years ago, just as righties expected, but holding onto just enough in every state that he nearly duplicated his electoral vote total from 2008. Bizarre, but that’s what his organizational effort was all about. He had a sizable margin of error this time thanks to his huge win over McCain and Team O made sure he stayed within it.

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Took me a little bit of time to figure out what I was looking at there, but that is really interesting stuff. I suppose the whole “Permanent Democratic majority driven by demographics” might not be so permanent or driven by demographics. I mean heck, Texas isn’t going to be a swing state like the Dems think it will if its trending red over time, right? Same goes for New Mexico, Nevada, etc. On the other hand, Pennsylvania will be a swing state at some point, we just need to stop trying to make it one sooner than it wants to be.

vegconservative on November 21, 2012 at 4:12 PM

The map makes Akin’s fiasco in MO even harder to swallow.

FlaMurph on November 21, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Delaware trending red, awesome.
COD rising.

eyesky on November 21, 2012 at 5:10 PM

but holding onto just enough in every state that he nearly duplicated his electoral vote total from 2008. Bizarre, but that’s what his organizational effort was all about.

All the blacks and guilty whites that voted for Obama’s skin color in 2008 voted for Obama’s skin color again in 2012.

Just say it. The truth is the truth. People try so hard to skip around it.

Moesart on November 21, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Nice, but 2012 does not really show the direction of the nation based on 4.4% movement. Republicans gained nothing and Democrats just simply lost 8 million votes that can easily be returned to them based on an energetic campaign by a new idol to worship.

astonerii on November 21, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Who cares? I don’t. We lost, because the electorate is stupid, ignorant and self-serving. F ‘em!

HiJack on November 21, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Moesart on November 21, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Do you only like Republican Blacks? It seems that treating Blacks like a monolith is precisely what the left does to Republicans. Has that worked?

I’m curious because I want to know how the GOP plans on expanding outreach to groups it doesn’t even like. If we presume 90% of blacks to be unapproachable what happens when Hispanics and Asians reach that same level of alienation from the right?

It won’t take 150 years for us to lose them like it did with Blacks. It’s happening before our eyes.

Seriously, do you have any friends who are Democrats and/or Hispanic and/or Black? Asian?

Capitalist Hog on November 21, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Evangelicals were underwhelmed by Mitt.

SparkPlug on November 21, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Maybe I missed it, but I don’t see where any of the data comes from. Have we learned nothing? From now on I want people to prove their numbers.

RINOs are people too on November 21, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Maybe I missed it, but I don’t see where any of the data comes from. Have we learned nothing? From now on I want people to prove their numbers.

RINOs are people too on November 21, 2012 at 7:17 PM

It comes from the actual vote percentages in 2012 compared to 2008. For example, Romney did 5% better in PA than McCain did, therefore it falls into the pink range.

forest on November 21, 2012 at 7:36 PM

That’s a nifty explanation, in a single image, for why so many conservatives (me included) thought Romney might pull the upset on election day. We figured four years of a bad economy and liberal disillusionment with Hopenchange combined with a powerful conservative zeal to beat him would mean a redder map this time.

yep i though romney would win. =(

Sachiko on November 21, 2012 at 7:42 PM

It comes from the actual vote percentages in 2012 compared to 2008. For example, Romney did 5% better in PA than McCain did, therefore it falls into the pink range.
forest on November 21, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Thanks.

RINOs are people too on November 21, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Charlie Brown. Lucy. Football. Some assembly required.

ElectricPhase on November 21, 2012 at 8:16 PM

It isn’t a coincidence. The Democrat vote machine set out to generate just enough votes to win the election, and had to go into debt to do it. They completely abdicated on convincing people to vote for them, and focused on getting their devoted followers to herd non-voters to the polls. The only take-away from this election was that the Republicans need to match the Democrat “ground game” in order to win.

Count to 10 on November 21, 2012 at 10:29 PM

I’m still not convinced there wasn’t some shenanigans going on. It doesn’t feel right to me in my gut.

SouthernGent on November 21, 2012 at 11:04 PM

Doesn’t feel right to me, either. And I never felt that way before.

But I guess we will never know. Because we aren’t supposed to know. Which means voting doesn’t matter like it should. I’ll keep voting, but I don’t think it matters a whole bunch anymore.

Alana on November 22, 2012 at 12:59 AM

The GOP was tactically outmanuvered on the ground. They could not overcome the early GOTV. And the DEMS signed up new voters in their traditional strongholds, eg colleges, minority districts, etc. It’s easier for the DEMS than the GOP to do this because their strongholds are clustered. Still, many people voted on emotion. Black voters didn’t want to see the first black POTUS thrown out of office, no matter how incompetent, so they showed in sufficient numbers. Throw in the abortionists, and the gay crowd, and it was basiclly a perfect storm.

Red Creek on November 22, 2012 at 9:14 AM

The map clearly is missing the takeaway information which is the GOP trending states that Rommey won and Lost as a seperate color code. With it will lay the foundation for the next election where the GOP message held sway but not enough to push the state over. The Rommey vs Pawlenty debate should be raging now but somehow is muted. The mormon factor was far bigger than most will admit to and the next election will have a clown called Joe Biden as the standard bearer. So lets not aswage the converative voice with poplulist rehtoric. There should be a true convservative for the next election since they WILL WIN.

nicknack60 on November 22, 2012 at 12:34 PM

From the cult of wishful thinking. Probably the same cult members are those that told us Romney was going to win.

Faramir on November 22, 2012 at 2:39 PM