Green Room

Blue Texas? Er …

posted at 12:13 pm on November 19, 2012 by

After the election this month, in which a Democratic incumbent hung onto the presidency while gaining fewer votes than his first election, there was plenty of bragging about the outcome from the Left.  Some claimed that deep-red Texas might become a swing state in the very near future, but TNR’s Nate Cohn throws a big deluge of cold water — and math — on that bet:

Certainly, increased Hispanic turnout and support for Democratic candidates aided the president in Texas, just as it did nationally. In overwhelmingly Hispanic areas of south Texas, Obama finished more than 10 points better than he did in 2008, and Mitt Romney finished worse than John McCain in thirty counties with a large Hispanic population. Strong minority support and turnout allowed Obama to carry the core counties of metropolitan Dallas and Houston (Dallas and Harris County), even though they voted Republican in every presidential election from 1968 through 2004.

But in case anyone missed it, demographic changes haven’t actually produced gains for Democrats in Texas. Despite favorable Latino turnout and support, Obama did worse in Texas than he did four years ago and lost by a decisive 16-point margin. Looking back further, Texas hasn’t moved to the left: the state was 19 points to the right of the national popular vote in 2012; hardly an improvement compared to 19 points in 2008, 20 points in 2004, and 15 points in 1996.

I’d put aspirations of a blue Texas at the same level as those for a red Minnesota: a fantasy.

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God help us if our state turns blue! I just wonder how many hispanics here are not legal to vote and did? I bet there was a great number?
L

letget on November 19, 2012 at 12:18 PM

I have a neighbor not far from here who had 15 Obama Biden signs and a 8 ft tall blow up Donkey printed Vote Democrat

I took a picture and titled it ‘over-compensating’. It’s a pretty lonely area to be a Democrat but at least they have a sense of humor.

CorporatePiggy on November 19, 2012 at 12:20 PM

ANd the state government has grown MORE conservative, a Tea Party favorite was sent to the Senate, and the congressional delgation is still strongly GOP. Dream on Democrats; keep beating your heads against our brick walls.

michaelo on November 19, 2012 at 12:28 PM

We should all be thanking God for Texas and the other smaller red states, which are our only defense against the federal government now. Conservatives in hopeless blue states should think about moving to red states and swing states to solidify the strength of red states. Let the blue states collapse so they can begin to recover. And NO BAILOUTS for irresponsible blue states.

Texas is redder than ever, but one day not too far off, we will be a majority minority state, and currently those minorities are not fond of the Republican party. Texans are already refining their messages to appeal to a more urban and more minority population, one which has no knowledge or affinity for agricultural issues, hunting and fishing, and other activities looked down upon by many urban folks. They think food comes from the store and electricity comes from a hole in the wall.

As I said on another thread, Repubs in TX need to continue our successful recruiting of Hispanics to run for office.

juliesa on November 19, 2012 at 12:40 PM

I look forward to seeing what Ted Cruz does in the senate. I got to visit with him at a reception a few weeks ago, and he’s very nice, very down to earth. Very hardworking too. The Democrat, whatshisname, had literally zero chance against him, but he was out campaigning hard every day.

juliesa on November 19, 2012 at 12:43 PM

What does Nate Silver think about this?

portlandon on November 19, 2012 at 12:46 PM

I was surprised to see that my congressional district here in CO (CO-3; basically covering the entire Western half of the state) became much stronger Republican in 2012 than in 2008 or even 2010. Romney won this district in a massive landslide.

I know there has been a strong influx here of new people moving here over the past few years. I always worried that these were Californians bringing their libtard voting tradition with them. But maybe they were outnumbered by sane Texans moving here too?

Norwegian on November 19, 2012 at 12:46 PM

A few states over to the west lies AZ which some say is a light shade of red or purple..Can’t imagine AZ turning blue.

hawkman on November 19, 2012 at 1:00 PM

But maybe they were outnumbered by sane Texans moving here too?

Norwegian on November 19, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Hey, maybe all the Texans who have vacation homes there should use those as their main residence for voting purposes. We have to get creative if we want to win in 2016.

juliesa on November 19, 2012 at 1:03 PM

Do not ignore or discount the fact that Houston, Dallas, Bexar, and Travis counties went for Democrats in the past two election cycles. In the past ten years it’s gotten a LOT worse (politically, socially, and economically) for Republicans in these cities and these are the major population centers in Texas.

If this trend continues, then Texas will be no different than Washington State where a couple of large, populated urban areas outweigh the electorate in the rest of the state.

Get ready for it, because the answer will be “Yes, Texas is a blue state” in two or three election cycles.

ScottMcC on November 19, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Houston (Harris County) cast 1,185,722 votes and Obama won by only 585 votes! However, during the primaries, many on these Hot Air threads were vicious in their attacks on Rick Perry and the so-called “Texas Dream Act” (that’s not it’s name nor is it anything like the Federal Dream Act). Yes, Perry’s “you don’t have a heart” comment was insulting, but the deeper point is that even tho’ I can explain and defend the law better than the governor, I found that way too many conservatives didn’t care and even knowingly misrepresented it. But then they acted like Texas was weak on border defense which is a laugher. We have many conservative, Republican Latinos in Texas. Many whose ancestors were Tejanos who fought for Texas’ independence from Mexico. Recently, a Mexican caller to a talk radio host, said the problem with Mexican and other Hispanic immigrants, both legal and otherwise, is that they think wealth flows from government because where they came from, it did. Conservatives need to demonstrate and teach them THEY can create their own wealth, but if you’r going to keep threatening their illegal grandma with deportation they ain’t gonna listen.

cartooner on November 19, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Do not ignore or discount the fact that Houston, Dallas, Bexar, and Travis counties went for Democrats in the past two election cycles. In the past ten years it’s gotten a LOT worse (politically, socially, and economically) for Republicans in these cities and these are the major population centers in Texas.

If this trend continues, then Texas will be no different than Washington State where a couple of large, populated urban areas outweigh the electorate in the rest of the state.

Get ready for it, because the answer will be “Yes, Texas is a blue state” in two or three election cycles.

ScottMcC on November 19, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Yeah, I’ll believe it when I see it. Right now the only way we’re gonna get rid of Rick Roosevelt is either he declines to run again or we primary him out.

TMOverbeck on November 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

I know there has been a strong influx here of new people moving here over the past few years. I always worried that these were Californians bringing their libtard voting tradition with them. But maybe they were outnumbered by sane Texans moving here too?

Norwegian on November 19, 2012 at 12:46 PM

I suspect that most of those escaping California are conservatives tired of being fed upon by the leeches and who see the writing on the wall for this state …

ShainS on November 19, 2012 at 2:20 PM

And Republican Joe Strauss is fighting for his Texas State senate leadership with–another more Conservative Republican. Blue state my a$$.

NOMOBO on November 19, 2012 at 2:27 PM

You think Austin is a one-off? Austin is in the heart of Texas and is almost as far left as San Francisco. And if there is one thing we know from history, leftism spreads like a cancer.

keep the change on November 19, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Get ready for it, because the answer will be “Yes, Texas is a blue state” in two or three election cycles.

ScottMcC on November 19, 2012 at 1:05 PM

After looking at the last 20 years of voting in Texas you cannot seriously believe that. Given current trends Texas will shift blue, but then “current trends” never last for more than a decade or 2. At worst in 20-30 years Texas would be like Ohio or Florida. A swing state where the Republican has to fight massive dem turnout in a couple cities by getting large turnout in the suburbs and rural areas.

I suspect that most of those escaping California are conservatives tired of being fed upon by the leeches and who see the writing on the wall for this state …

ShainS on November 19, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Definitely seems to be the case regarding Texas at least. Northern liberals fleeing their failed blue states to set them up elsewhere for some ungodly reason seem to mostly be heading to the Southeast, while California liberals doing the same seem to be hitting Colorado, Nevada, the nothwest, and to a lesser extent Arizona and Austin.

jarodea on November 19, 2012 at 2:40 PM

You think Austin is a one-off? Austin is in the heart of Texas and is almost as far left as San Francisco. And if there is one thing we know from history, leftism spreads like a cancer.

keep the change on November 19, 2012 at 2:31 PM

The counties surrounding Austin are holding back the cancer quite well, Romney’s worst showing in the suburbs was an 11 point win. Austin is also one-off when it comes to Texas’ 5 largest counties. Obama won Travis County by 24 points, he tied in Harris, won Bexar by 5, won Dallas by 15 and lost Tarrant by 16 (which means in Dallas-Tarrant as it were he won by less than 1 point).

The 24 point win for Obama in Travis County still isn’t quite as bad as San Fransico county which went Obama by 66 points. True that only has San Fransico, and having lived in Austin I do know how lefty liberal it is, but even county wide Obama’s worst county in the San Fransico area was Napa which he won by only 26 points. So Obama did better in the most conservative county in the San Fransico area than he did in Travis County itself.

jarodea on November 19, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Did the math take 20 million new Democrats into account?

El_Terrible on November 19, 2012 at 2:52 PM

As a Conservative Californian, I have voted for every Republican on the ballot, against every liberal ballot initiative.

If I leave California (more and more likely every day), I have no intention of moving to Texas.

All Texans can now breathe a sigh of relief.

MichaelGabriel on November 19, 2012 at 4:00 PM

I suspect that most of those escaping California are conservatives tired of being fed upon by the leeches and who see the writing on the wall for this state …

ShainS on November 19, 2012 at 2:20 PM

I know leftists who have moved to Texas metros from California.

They do not have the backbone to live in the real metro areas. Which is amusing as they can afford it and Houston, Dallas, and SA have done some great things for people like them.

But they end up living in the burbs where they are outnumbered 10-1 by right wing extremists.

It’s that whole courage of your convictions issue.

CorporatePiggy on November 19, 2012 at 4:09 PM

If anyone looks at an electoral map broken down by Latino vote, you will see that it was a slim blue margin around the liberal cities…very slim. The rest of the state is a raging case of RED!

Used to have such a map, but don’t know where it is now.

Dems are like little boys beating on their chests, hoping someone will think they aren’t afraid or how small they really are.

I wish God’ vengeance upon them. In my wishful thinking ….about 10% of them per month for about…six months. Whatever means possible. Should get their attention. o_Ô

avagreen on November 19, 2012 at 4:15 PM

I know there has been a strong influx here of new people moving here over the past few years. I always worried that these were Californians bringing their libtard voting tradition with them. But maybe they were outnumbered by sane Texans moving here too?

Norwegian on November 19, 2012 at 12:46 PM

We’ll just have to rope ‘um, hogtie ‘um, say sweet thangs into their ear……and then give them a ballcap, take them out into the country, and teach them to shoot a gun. That’ll turn ‘um.

avagreen on November 19, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Norwegian on November 19, 2012 at 12:46 PM

avagreen on November 19, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Ooops! Misread your post, Norwegian……thought you were in Texas. :)

avagreen on November 19, 2012 at 4:27 PM

We’ll just have to rope ‘um, hogtie ‘um, say sweet thangs into their ear……and then give them a ballcap, take them out into the country, and teach them to shoot a gun. That’ll turn ‘um.

avagreen on November 19, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Growing up in Wyoming, I learned to ride horses, drive, shoot, rope, check traps and ice skate while still in grade school.
So I think I’ve got all that covered.

BTW, when you’re checking traps in the dead of winter and you find an animal still alive in the trap, you club it to death. No need to waste a bullet.

MichaelGabriel on November 19, 2012 at 4:40 PM

MichaelGabriel on November 19, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Not all conservative Texans are pro-hunting. I think that sport-hunting is evil and trapping is evil and barbaric.
*Proud conservative-proud animal rights activist.*

annoyinglittletwerp on November 19, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Not all conservative Texans are pro-hunting. I think that sport-hunting is evil and trapping is evil and barbaric.
*Proud conservative-proud animal rights activist.*

annoyinglittletwerp on November 19, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Someone said you can be a Texan if you’re a transplant who gets it.

You clearly don’t get it.

Animals do have rights. To be dispatched quickly, cleaned quickly, and cooked with respect to their meat and the other ingredients.

CorporatePiggy on November 19, 2012 at 5:36 PM

I’d put aspirations of a blue Texas at the same level as those for a red Minnesota: a fantasy.

Oh, I dunno. Add several million newly-minted citizens courtesy of amnesty, and the math changes significantly.

hawksruleva on November 19, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Get ready for it, because the answer will be “Yes, Texas is a blue state” in two or three election cycles.

ScottMcC on November 19, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Kinda like we here in Pennsylvania are automatically a blue state because of damn Philadelphia (not including the shenanigans that took place on Election Day) and Pittsburgh. The huge red “T” that covers the rest of the state, and represents our votes, is always ignored.

PatriotGal2257 on November 19, 2012 at 5:52 PM

*Proud conservative-proud animal rights activist.*

annoyinglittletwerp on November 19, 2012 at 5:29 PM

I don’t have a problem with that, at all.

Growing up, there was no welfare, no food stamps. There were commodity stores that sold surplus government cheese, powdered milk and beans.
Hunting and fishing was for food, trapping was to sell furs to buy school clothes.

MichaelGabriel on November 19, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Once voter ID law goes into effect, those blue counties and cities will not be able to bus in illegals and Houston based ACORN vote early vote often frauds.

It will bring integrity back to the ballot system.

Robert Jensen on November 19, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Ooops! Misread your post, Norwegian……thought you were in Texas.

avagreen on November 19, 2012 at 4:27 PM

No problem, I liked your answer :-)

That strategy works here in Western CO as well!

Norwegian on November 19, 2012 at 6:23 PM

BTW, most of the furs were rabbits (some muskrats). My best friends father owned the local fur factory & was one of the wealthiest men in town. My mother wouldn’t let me work there at the age of 12 because the rabbits were disease infested.

MichaelGabriel on November 19, 2012 at 6:27 PM

jarodea on November 19, 2012 at 2:40 PM
avagreen on November 19, 2012 at 4:15 PM
Robert Jensen on November 19, 2012 at 6:22 PM

The demographic shift that will redefine Texas as a blue state in two election cycles is not, repeat NOT an influx of Latino voters from poor Mexico. It is the massive migration of white, high-income, college-educated urban hipsters from America’s coastal states–primarily California, New Jersey, Virginia, etc.

Look at the electoral map for the past two cycles: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and Travis are all solidly blue. Because of their growing population of urban hipster professionals migrating due to:

1) The large number of healthcare sales/administration and IT/engineering-focused jobs that were in Philadelphia, Boston, NYC, and San Francisco are moving to Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio
2) The public school stranglehold on education

Ask any of the new residents you see in Dallas and they’ll all tell you: “This state would be perfect if the people who ran it weren’t so beholden to all the rich white oil men. What this state needs is politicians who aren’t afraid to make those people pay their fair share to fund [insert name of corrupt multi-billion dollar government program] like we had in [insert name of the state they ran from to get to Texas]!” It’s no different than a foreign immigrant with an degree in computer science landing a job at Apple in 1990, making 100X more money in California than in their home country due to oppressive taxation related to a massive welfare state, but then scrambling to get their U.S. citizenship so they can vote for… oppressive taxation in California to pay for a massive welfare state–just like back home. The same thing will happen in Texas, but it will be American-born San Franciscans, Bostonites, etc. spearheading the call for oppressive taxation to bring Texas up to the standards they were used to back home.

The public education system in Texas, according to top opinion makers such as Brian the dog in “Family Guy,” is run by Young Earth Creationists who hate science and rational thought. Yet somehow you leave early from the dry cleaning business you built from nothing to pick up your precious little eight year-old princess from the “exemplary” rated public school in one of Dallas’ lily-white ‘burbs and she yells “WHY DIDN’T YOU VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA DADDY?!” at you disapprovingly in front of all the mommies and teachers in earshot (who all shake their heads and glare at you)… Well, I’m farily sure the small business owner didn’t teach her that. And she couldn’t possibly have learned that from public school, right?

Seriously, unless something drastic happens this is the new normal in Texas. By 2020, Texas will be just like PA or WA: A dwindling libertarian electorate in mid-sized towns and rural areas held hostage by a couple of urban centers filled with socialists.

ScottMcC on November 19, 2012 at 8:16 PM