Green Room

Re: Rasmussen’s Abortion Poll

posted at 4:59 pm on November 15, 2012 by

The American electorate has suddenly and overwhelmingly embraced the pro-choice position on abortion (54/38), if a new Rasmussen poll is to be believed.  This would mark an implausible reversal compared to other national surveys conducted just a few months ago.   In May, Gallup found that the percentage of self-described “pro-choice” Americans has plummeted to a new low (41 percent), with pro-lifers representing the majority view (50 percent).  In August, a CNN national poll also showed pro-life Americans outnumbering pro-choicers (52/44), with women splitting evenly on the overall question.  So what explains Rasmussen’s latest data?  I think two elements are at play here:

(1) Conservatives are demoralized and regrouping right now.  Just a hunch, but I suspect they’re less likely than ever to answer polling calls at this point in time, whereas the victorious side is eager to talk to pollsters.  That’s basic human nature.

(2) In the CNN poll, which resulted in a pro-life majority, mind you,  the overwhelming consensus of respondents (83/14) was that legalized abortion should be an option in the relatively rare circumstance of pregnancy caused by rape.  Thanks to Todd Akin and (to a lesser extent) Richard Mourdock  – and, of course, the media — Americans have been hearing a lot about pro-life male politicians bungling explanations about why virtually all abortions should be illegal.   “Well, I don’t agree with that,” people think to themselves.  This is why it is imperative for pro-life candidates — men especially — to learn how to talk about the issue in a way that isn’t alienating and scary, even to people who might otherwise think of themselves as pro-life.

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We just spent the last three months talking about how inacurrate the polls were and got our asses handed to us. Are we really starting this up again? I want with all my heart to believe that we’re not losing the cultural battle on Right to Life. But I’m not ready to jump back on board the bandwagon of deconstructing polls to try and prove they’re wrong.

dczombie on November 15, 2012 at 5:03 PM

(1) Conservatives are demoralized and regrouping right now. Just a hunch, but I suspect they’re less likely than ever to answer polling calls at this point in time, whereas the victorious side is eager to talk to pollsters. That’s basic human nature.

I, for one, don’t ever care to hear about anyone’s “hunches” or “instinct” or “theories” regarding social research. Not after the Unskewed Election.

If there’s any doubt to be cast on this poll, it’s that Rasmussen, after blowing this election, needs to rework his polling methodology.

KingGold on November 15, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Yeah this does not make sense… People do not change their opinion that much in very few months on very ideological issue like abortion…

mnjg on November 15, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Just a hunch, but I suspect they’re less likely than ever to answer polling calls at this point in time, whereas the victorious side is eager to talk to pollsters. That’s basic human nature.

Um…where have I heard this before?

That said, I don’t buy the numbers either. No other surveys show the same thing, and there’s just no way Akin’s remarks had that big of an effect on people’s opinions.

changer1701 on November 15, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Americans have been hearing a lot about pro-life male politicians bungling explanations about why virtually all abortions should be illegal. “Well, I don’t agree with that,” people think to themselves.

posted at 4:59 pm on November 15, 2012 by Guy Benson

American’s are pro-lifers who don’t believe virtually all abortions should be illegal? Ok, that makes sense.

Maybe if the establishment hadn’t panicked and stood up for conservative principles instead of bashing Akin needlessly, it might’ve helped Romney increase Evangelical turnout?

sauldalinsky on November 15, 2012 at 5:08 PM

A good policy going forward is to assume bad polling news is probably accurate.

Kataklysmic on November 15, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Has anyone conducted a poll on how credible they believe Rasmussen’s polling is?

I never questioned it before 6 November 2012.

I’ll never bother with it since.

BuckeyeSam on November 15, 2012 at 5:15 PM

I used to believe that deconstructing polls was one of the ways Hotair added value to stories. I no longer believe that.

WordsMatter on November 15, 2012 at 5:17 PM

“The polls are wrong!”

Here we go again.

EddieC on November 15, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Maybe if the establishment hadn’t panicked and stood up for conservative principles instead of bashing Akin needlessly, it might’ve helped Romney increase Evangelical turnout?

sauldalinsky on November 15, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Heheh nice trolling.

EddieC on November 15, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Unskew! Unskew!

Someone get Dean Chambers on the phone, Dick Morris too.

lester on November 15, 2012 at 5:22 PM

I just want Obama to destroy the country…..Get it done and over with….I mean he is going to destroy it slowly over time but lets just get it done with…

No one’s really going to care about pro-abortion anti-abortion stances or anything at the moment when people are starving to death.

Varchild on November 15, 2012 at 5:26 PM

keep unskewing that chicken, dude!

sesquipedalian on November 15, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Agreed partially on point 1, and agreed fully on point 2. If there’s one thing this means though, we need to do a lot more work, be a lot more vocal, and a lot more visible (i.e., engage, not retreat, on social issues) so that our support hardens.

Stoic Patriot on November 15, 2012 at 5:30 PM

I used to believe that deconstructing polls was one of the ways Hotair added value to stories. I no longer believe that.

WordsMatter on November 15, 2012 at 5:17 PM

This. I won’t be sucked in again. Lesson hard learned.

JPeterman on November 15, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Dump abortion from the Republican platform. Now.

Social issues are killing the Republican party with voters otherwise apposed to liberal fiscal insanity.

rickyricardo on November 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

This is another poll that we should not dismiss or ignore. Because it shows just how effective the Left’s propaganda has been over the last few years, and especially during this election.

The Left has seen poll after poll for over a decade showing Americans becoming more pro-life. We took this for granted, but they didn’t. They determined to move the numbers by highlighting the extremes (rape rape rape), portraying abortion as as civil rights and “women’s health” issue, and framing the HHS mandate as about access to contraception while those of us saying it is about abortion really don’t want contraception either. These were the messages that OFA pounded to women this year.

This poll may be an outlier, but we should not assume that it is. We should figure out how to push back against the propaganda.

rockmom on November 15, 2012 at 5:34 PM

3. Republicans, petrified by the recent election and believing the rhetoric coming out of some Republican leaders that they need to “throw out” social issues like support for abortion and opposition to same-sex marriage in order to have “their guy” elected(in other words, become just like democrats and be permissive in ALL things), are doing just that. RINO’s are not only the people in office.

Sterling Holobyte on November 15, 2012 at 5:36 PM

keep unskewing that chicken, dude!

sesquipedalian on November 15, 2012 at 5:29 PM

This is the first poll in forever that shows a majority being pro-choice. Care to explain all the other ones before this one? Karl Rove’s mind-control machine?

rockmom on November 15, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Dump abortion from the Republican platform. Now.

Social issues are killing the Republican party with voters otherwise apposed to liberal fiscal insanity.

rickyricardo on November 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Yea go ahead….You can KEEP your Republican party.

ENJOY!!!!

If you never win an election ever…..Well…ITS YOUR PARTY NOW!

Varchild on November 15, 2012 at 5:42 PM

This is the first poll in forever that shows a majority being pro-choice. Care to explain all the other ones before this one? Karl Rove’s mind-control machine?

rockmom on November 15, 2012 at 5:37 PM

The poll’s an outlier? That good enough to thread the needle?

What’s more, given Rasmussen Reports’ newfound credibility deficit, it’s quite plausible.

KingGold on November 15, 2012 at 5:42 PM

We just spent the last three months talking about how inacurrate the polls were and got our asses handed to us. Are we really starting this up again?

That was the first thing I thought when I started reading this. Massive cognitive dissonance.

rndmusrnm on November 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Is this D+7?

ardenenoch on November 15, 2012 at 5:47 PM

LOL So libs are suddenly embracing Rasmussen?

No doubt he was one of this cycle’s worse pollsters in terms of accuracy. Probably overcompensating with a leftie sample this time.

Norwegian on November 15, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Social issues are killing the Republican party with voters otherwise apposed to liberal fiscal insanity.

rickyricardo on November 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

And then Republicans will just be……Democrats.

Game over.

itsspideyman on November 15, 2012 at 5:55 PM

They only polled college campuses?

jffree1 on November 15, 2012 at 5:58 PM

This is the first poll in forever that shows a majority being pro-choice. Care to explain all the other ones before this one? Karl Rove’s mind-control machine?

rockmom on November 15, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Point 2 is not that untrue. A couple of honest socons came along. They gave away the true agenda. People figured what it’s all about.

lester on November 15, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Americans are fundamentally freedom-loving people. Part of that disposition is not wanting holy rollers telling them what medical procedures they can have.

Social “conservatism” is a dead philosophy. Social “conservatives” will never again hold the sway over culture and politics that they enjoyed under Reagan and W.

Armin Tamzarian on November 15, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Americans are fundamentally freedom-loving people. Part of that disposition is not wanting holy rollers telling them what medical procedures they can have.

Social “conservatism” is a dead philosophy. Social “conservatives” will never again hold the sway over culture and politics that they enjoyed under Reagan and W.

Armin Tamzarian on November 15, 2012 at 6:14 PM

First, abortion is not a medical procedure.

Second, I am not so sure that Americans are, fundamentally, a freedom loving people anymore. I believe we have substantial evidence that government “benefits” are more important to a significant portion of the population than their freedom.

Shump on November 15, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Dump abortion from the Republican platform. Now.

Social issues are killing the Republican party with voters otherwise apposed to liberal fiscal insanity.

rickyricardo on November 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

“Opposed”.

Shump on November 15, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Dump abortion from the Republican platform. Now.

Social issues are killing the Republican party with voters otherwise apposed to liberal fiscal insanity.

rickyricardo on November 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

So if I get this straight, social issues are driving voters otherwise opposed to liberal fiscal insanity into the arms of the liberal fiscal insane. Yep, makes sense to me.

Erich66 on November 15, 2012 at 6:42 PM

I’ll buy the argument that the Akin/Mourdock media storm caused a lot of exemptions-only people to relabel themselves as pro-choice instead of pro-life. Doesn’t mean their views have really changed.

theperfecteconomist on November 15, 2012 at 6:42 PM

First, abortion is not a medical procedure.

Second, I am not so sure that Americans are, fundamentally, a freedom loving people anymore. I believe we have substantial evidence that government “benefits” are more important to a significant portion of the population than their freedom.

Call abortion whatever you want. The bottom line is that, like all medicine, it should be between the patient and doctor, not Washington blowhards who want to micromanage people’s lives.

And if you have to choose between two big-government types who want to rule your life from thousands of miles away, why wouldn’t you choose the one that will at least give you free stuff?

Armin Tamzarian on November 15, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Rick CAN WE QUIT pretending the GOP ran on social issues. Stop the stupidity. There was nothing to excite the pro life and anti homosexual marriage crowd…NOTHING.

CW on November 15, 2012 at 7:22 PM

And if you have to choose between two big-government types who want to rule your life from thousands of miles away, why wouldn’t you choose the one that will at least give you free stuff?

Armin Tamzarian on November 15, 2012 at 6:43 PM

So the pubs should give away free stuff? idiot.

CW on November 15, 2012 at 7:23 PM

This is the first poll in forever that shows a majority being pro-choice. Care to explain all the other ones before this one? Karl Rove’s mind-control machine?
rockmom on November 15, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Are you opposed to someone who has been raped having access to abortion will elicit an entirely different response than are you pro life or pro choice ?

Basilsbest on November 15, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Yup, throw the social conservatives under the bus. A great many of the trolls are loving it here tonight but I can tell you when the stuff hits the fan and churches are your only refuge, we will still let you in. We already knows how this ends and it ain’t pretty for all you naysayers……….

crosshugger on November 15, 2012 at 7:41 PM

The wrong questions are always asked. Every abortion either destroys an innocent living human being or it does not. How that human being came into existence or how far along he/she is in age doesn’t change that basic issue. I’d guess that 95% of the people in the United States have not thought through this issue carefully at all.

jdp629 on November 15, 2012 at 9:16 PM

And if you have to choose between two big-government types who want to rule your life from thousands of miles away, why wouldn’t you choose the one that will at least give you free stuff?

Armin Tamzarian on November 15, 2012 at 6:43 PM

And THAT, my friends, is why the United States is no longer a truly free nation. Nor will it ever come back. America has entered an inevitable Hellenistic Age of Irreversible Decline.

This country is so depraved that it will only come as a blessing if the Chinese conquer us or Iran nukes us into oblivion.

Myron Falwell on November 15, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Are you opposed to someone who has been raped having access to abortion will elicit an entirely different response than are you pro life or pro choice ?

Basilsbest on November 15, 2012 at 7:33 PM

So? AVOID THE FREAKING QUESTION. Politely, but artfully do so. That IS an option, you know.

The anti-American MSM has taken firm control of the issue, turning what’s already a political football into a political land mine field. And the RINOs are too scared to walk the field and are urging everyone to go down the wrong path.

Myron Falwell on November 15, 2012 at 10:08 PM

This is the first poll in forever that shows a majority being pro-choice. Care to explain all the other ones before this one? Karl Rove’s mind-control machine?

rockmom on November 15, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Are you opposed to someone who has been raped having access to abortion will elicit an entirely different response than are you pro life or pro choice ?

Basilsbest on November 15, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Yes. Akin beclowned himself answering the former question and that damaged the pro life answer to the latter question.

Rebecca Kiessling’s response to the former question is certainly an entirely different one.

rukiddingme on November 15, 2012 at 10:12 PM

It’s pathetic that some actually believe access to abortion is still up for debate in this country.

Be anti whatever. That’s your opinion.

But, the idea that the govt is going to be in charge of pregnancy, really now people. Get a clue already.

Moesart on November 16, 2012 at 12:13 AM

Call abortion slavery whatever you want. The bottom line is that, like all medicine property, it should be between the patient property owner and doctor his property, not Washington blowhards who want to micromanage people’s lives.

Armin Tamzarian on November 15, 2012 at 6:43 PM

HarryBackside on November 16, 2012 at 12:39 AM

rukiddingme on November 15, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Thanks for sharing that link. I had never heard her story. It adds another level to being truly “pro-life”.

Sterling Holobyte on November 16, 2012 at 1:03 AM

Abortion is murder.

growl on November 16, 2012 at 2:04 AM

But, the idea that the govt is going to be in charge of pregnancy, really now people. Get a clue already.

Moesart on November 16, 2012 at 12:13 AM

Richly stupid. Whatever the laws may be about abortion, the government is hardly “in charge of pregnancy.” That would be like claiming laws against murder put the government “in charge of healthcare.”

It’s easy to ridicule a straw man argument.

tom on November 16, 2012 at 4:10 AM

I believe the elections were rigged big time. That makes pollsters like Rasmussen look bad.

Birdseye on November 16, 2012 at 5:13 AM

Frankly there should be no such thing as a “pro-life candidate”. As if that should EVER be a candidate’s primary issues.

Not.Ever.

deadrody on November 16, 2012 at 5:27 AM

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