Green Room

Infographic of the day: Obama lost independent voters in all swing states minus NC

posted at 2:41 pm on November 14, 2012 by

This will boggle your mind. Barack Obama lost independent voters to Mitt Romney in every swing state except North Carolina and still won reelection.

President Barack Obama won a second term by taking the majority of swing states. But a closer look at exit polling data shows Obama lost the independent vote in most of those states over the last four years. Independents, who do not align with one political party or another, make up a fast-growing and coveted voting bloc.

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I think the graphic means Pres. Obama lost ground among independent voters in the swing states since 2008, but not necessarily that he got fewer independent voters than Romney. In Iowa and New Hampshire, for instance, the graphic indicates Obama got over 50% of independent voters this year, which means he beat Romney. And I think Obama did lose among the independent voters in North Carolina to Romney, although his numbers were better there this year than they were in 2008.

acasilaco on November 14, 2012 at 1:14 PM

…and but for a bad case of foot-in-mouth disease on the part of a couple GOP Senate candidates the swing might have been even more pronounced.

JEM on November 14, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Huh? The only place we didnt win indies is the only state we actually gained during this campaign??

You know, Im beginning to think of indies as some kind of jinx-costituency.

Valkyriepundit on November 14, 2012 at 2:46 PM

John Kerry won independents in 2004 too. Doesn’t mean squat.

What matters is getting your base out. And in that Romney failed miserably.

Let’s nominate a conservative next time.

Norwegian on November 14, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Sigh. The more I look at the post-election data, the more I think this is a layup that we missed. Romney lost Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado (and therefore the election) by around 400,000 votes. Did the combination of the abortion/rape idiocy of Akin/Mourdock, Sandy, and the meltdown of ORCA make the difference? My inclination is that yes, it did.

LukeinNE on November 14, 2012 at 2:55 PM

John Kerry won independents in 2004 too. Doesn’t mean squat.

What matters is getting your base out. And in that Romney failed miserably.

Let’s nominate a conservative next time.

Norwegian on November 14, 2012 at 2:47 PM

But but but it’s all about the Hispanics!!!

davek70 on November 14, 2012 at 2:58 PM

John Kerry won independents in 2004 too. Doesn’t mean squat.

What matters is getting your base out. And in that Romney failed miserably.

Let’s nominate a conservative next time.

Norwegian on November 14, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Actually it DOES mean squat for the exact reason you gave. 2004 was a turnout election and Bush got voters to the polls. Same thing in 2012. Obama got his base to show up. Romney didn’t.

Look, I supported Romney and thought he actually ran an overall good campaign(as a Presidential candidate, not necessarily in terms of GOTV). But it’s clear from the primaries when the base kept elevating one “not Romney” contender after the other to no avail that conservatives wanted someone else, anyone else. So let’s try to woo as many genuine conservative candidates in 2016 so we never have to go through this again.

Doughboy on November 14, 2012 at 3:01 PM

In every close election in the last 60 years (won by less than 5%), the winner of the popular vote has lost the independent vote. Thats 2012, 2004, 2000, 1976, 1968, and 1960.

Pandering to independents just doesn’t work, we should stop trying.

vegconservative on November 14, 2012 at 3:03 PM

But it’s clear from the primaries when the base kept elevating one “not Romney” contender after the other to no avail that conservatives wanted someone else, anyone else. So let’s try to woo as many genuine conservative candidates in 2016 so we never have to go through this again.

Doughboy

Except Romney gave conservatives exactly what they wanted when he picked Ryan. And they still sat on their asses.

Zaggs on November 14, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Hey guess what?

I don;t trust the results but I am not arguing too loud either.

We should have won by 3% minimum.

You wanted this America you should get it every bit of what he wants.

Let it burn.

harlekwin15 on November 14, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Look, I supported Romney and thought he actually ran an overall good campaign(as a Presidential candidate, not necessarily in terms of GOTV). But it’s clear from the primaries when the base kept elevating one “not Romney” contender after the other to no avail that conservatives wanted someone else, anyone else. So let’s try to woo as many genuine conservative candidates in 2016 so we never have to go through this again.

Doughboy on November 14, 2012 at 3:01 PM

I can agree, but that conservative candidate has got to have their stuff together. Every not-Romney shot up like a star and then crashed and burned so we need someone who will be smart, strong and savvy.

thebrokenrattle on November 14, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Except Romney gave conservatives exactly what they wanted when he picked Ryan. And they still sat on their asses.

Zaggs on November 14, 2012 at 3:05 PM

That’s right.

Sat this one out did you?

Okay dumb voter not a problem no difference between Romney and ogabe but hey at least Ogabe doesn’t kill people with cancer eyes?

I hope we show you the full Ogabe glory.

harlekwin15 on November 14, 2012 at 3:09 PM

John Kerry won independents in 2004 too. Doesn’t mean squat.

What matters is getting your base out. And in that Romney failed miserably.

Let’s nominate a conservative next time.

Norwegian on November 14, 2012 at 2:47 PM

I’m not blaming the lack of turnout on Romney. He wasn’t perfect, but he wasn’t Barack f*cking Obama. I really don’t know what to say if the only thing that will get conservatives to the polls is Reagan on the ticket. We will *never* have the machinery to match the Democrats. We could’ve done better in that department, but the bottom line is that Republicans win because their base tends to be more conscientious citizens who get out and vote. The idea that fewer of them showed up to support Romney than McCain AFTER four years of Obama is appalling. And that’s not on Romney.

LukeinNE on November 14, 2012 at 3:13 PM

Except Romney gave conservatives exactly what they wanted when he picked Ryan. And they still sat on their asses.

Zaggs on November 14, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Too many of them did. I donated to his campaign the day he announced the Ryan pick(he was the guy I wanted him to tap as VP) and I went and voted. But apparently not enough of us supported Romney.

I can agree, but that conservative candidate has got to have their stuff together. Every not-Romney shot up like a star and then crashed and burned so we need someone who will be smart, strong and savvy.

thebrokenrattle on November 14, 2012 at 3:08 PM

No question. The field was horrendous. I’m not gonna go over their flaws for the 50th time, but I will note that most of them couldn’t even get enough signatures to qualify for the ballot in key primary states. That tells you all you need to know about how incompetent their campaigns were.

That’s why I said we need to woo quality candidates way in advance this time. Perry got in way too late and wasn’t ready. Palin jerked around the base for months when she had to know early on that she wasn’t going to run. So I hope this allegedly deep bench of ours gets into the game immediately after the midterms and starts laying the groundwork for 2016.

Doughboy on November 14, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Except Romney gave conservatives exactly what they wanted when he picked Ryan. And they still sat on their asses.

Zaggs on November 14, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Ryan was the wrong pick.

He was a regional loser, couldn’t deliver his state, his region, or his district.

I like Ryan, but House of Rep candidates are always a bad pick.

Romney lost mormon votes in ’12 than the ’08 campaign did.

Ryan couldn’t deliver the Catholic vote.

It was a bad choice.

portlandon on November 14, 2012 at 3:30 PM

After reading that Politico piece on Priorities USA, I think we just got rings run around us tactically by Team Obama. They didn’t have the better candidate, but they had a better strategy (albeit a cynical one), they had better technology, they had better consultants, they spent their money more wisely, and they stuck with their strategy to the end.

There isn’t much reason why we can’t copy some of their strategy and tactics in future elections to get our base voting groups out the way they did, while also winning independents as Obama did in 2008.

rockmom on November 14, 2012 at 3:36 PM

portlandon on November 14, 2012 at 3:30 PM

I don’t agree, but I think Ryan was used very poorly. They could have run a real outside-the-box campaign to take advantage of Ryan’s pop-culture appeal, i.e. send him to classic rock radio stations, Cabela’s (there’s a huge one in PA not very far from where he did speak….in an airport hangar) and Bass Pro Shops, shooting ranges. Could have had him on some chat shows doing P90X moves. Could have made at least one TV ad with him looking cool and young and talking to young voters about how the Obama administration was spending their money like a drunken sailor.

The two big appearances Ryan made in the campaign were to the Values Voters Summit and the AARP. The VVS needed to see Romney, and the AARP speech was just dumb because he got booed.

rockmom on November 14, 2012 at 3:42 PM

I live in a republican county in NJ. Romney signs outnumbered Obama signs. We were suffering BADLY from Sandy. We had good reason to stay home. All of our polling places were changed due to not having power. Yet this is the first time I ever had to wait in line to vote. I find it hard to believe Romney didn’t turn out the base. We know our vote doesn’t matter and we still got out.

ctmom on November 14, 2012 at 3:52 PM

There isn’t much reason why we can’t copy some of their strategy and tactics in future elections to get our base voting groups out the way they did, while also winning independents as Obama did in 2008.

rockmom on November 14, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Their tactics being to lie, and slander and smear your opponent obviously worked well. Romney didn’t want to address the attacks until it was too late. We are so screwed.

JoAnn1965 on November 14, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Just a guess, but the Unaffiliated Voters in NC were all told that Romney had a lock, so they probably voted for the Libertarian.

LoganSix on November 14, 2012 at 4:00 PM

and but for a bad case of foot-in-mouth disease on the part of a couple GOP Senate candidates the swing might have been even more pronounced.

JEM

Not to mention Romney’s own “47%” foot-in-mouth eruption.

xblade on November 14, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Just more proof the Alwater ad campaign Obama ran worked.

Moesart on November 15, 2012 at 12:13 AM