Green Room

Did Romney lose the Cuban-American vote?

posted at 11:37 am on November 9, 2012 by

John Fund looks at a couple of competing exit polls and sees that Barack Obama dramatically improved his performance in a constituency long favoring the GOP:

Now that Florida has been called for Barack Obama by the slimmest of margins, Republicans have to confront the fact that they lost the Sunshine State because of weakness in a key demographic they used to own: Cuban Americans.

Exit polls from Fox News and the Pew Hispanic Center indicate that Cuban-Americans gave Obama 49 percent of their vote, besting Mitt Romney’s 47 percent. A competing exit poll by the Democratic firm of Bendixen & Amandi International gives Romney a 52–48 edge. Either way, Obama did far better among Cubans than he did in 2008, when he won only 35 percent of their votes.

Regardless of which one is most correct, the margin in Florida clearly can be explained by Romney’s collapse in support from perhaps the most anti-Communist voting bloc in the country. Ever since the Bay of Pigs invasion, Cubans have rallied behind Republicans, with every GOP nominee holding huge rallies in Miami and declaring “Cuba libre!” and “Cuba, si; Castro, no!” Ronald Reagan won more than 80 percent of Cuban voters in his two races for the presidency.

Read it all, but pay particular attention to what happened with Puerto Ricans, who made up 27% of the Hispanic vote in Florida.

Recently in the Green Room:

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Heck of a job Rubio… Total political genius there.

Illinidiva on November 9, 2012 at 11:44 AM

He also didn’t perceive much of an advertising effort: “Romney really dropped the ball by not running Spanish-language media until Labor Day and then only half-heartedly.”

Florida Republican party chairman Lenny Curry couldn’t agree more. “Our weakness with Hispanics is something we have to address,” he told me. “We’re going to have to figure out if we’re serious about having a relationship with diverse communities. I can’t believe these numbers, and we have to fix them.”

Translation: Look for Marco Rubio, Brian Sandoval, or Susana Martinez to be on the GOP ticket in 2016.

Doughboy on November 9, 2012 at 11:48 AM

That could explain why he did 5 points worse and McCain in Dade County and lost the state of Florida.

forest on November 9, 2012 at 11:50 AM

The Cuban-Americans have transitioned from anti-Communism to “I want free <expletive deleted>”. Sad.

Steve Eggleston on November 9, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Heck of a job Rubio… Total political genius there.

Illinidiva on November 9, 2012 at 11:44 AM

What is with your hostility toward Rubio? He wasn’t on the ticket…hardly think it’s his fault. Let’s face it, they’re joining Hispanics as a whole in voting for the party promising more stuff. That’s the bottom line. Castro and anti-communism are no longer the issues they once were.

changer1701 on November 9, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Hannity now supports “pathway to citizenship?”

http://www.mediaite.com/online/sean-hannity-ive-evolved-on-immigration-reform-support-pathway-to-citizenship/

Wow.

MikeknaJ on November 9, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Hannity’s an idiot sticking his finger in the air and thinking that’s the way the wind’s blowing. Give him another couple months after the fiscal cliff negotiations and he’ll rediscover his obviously shaky conservative principles.

Doughboy on November 9, 2012 at 12:05 PM

We are 3 generations out of the Bay of Pigs generation.

There are not enough left to remember it.

Just like the Jews. They are 5 generations past the Internment camps.

Look how they vote.

These demographics have forgotten how bad things used to be for them. And how liberalism/socialism cased it all.

portlandon on November 9, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Laura Ingram has a point on this amnesty talk. If we just try to buy off the various races and identities like democrats do, the democrats will always just offer a little more. We won’t win the gifts from the treasury game. We need to sell our ideas better, not just spend other peoples money more.

MechanicalBill on November 9, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Rush just played “Feliz Navidad” for all the hispanics who voted for Santa Claus and he’s starting the Christmas Carols early this year.

Here’s an interesting stat comparison for Florida to chew on: The difference in total votes for Dem+Rep 2012v2008 is -499 only. The difference between Obamuh and Romney in FL was 60,777 votes as opposed to 236,148 Obamuh v McCain. In 2012, 87,935 fewer voted for Obamuh than in 2008; 87,346 more voted for Romney than for McCain in 2008, leaving a +589 for Romney.

So while 12 million fewer people voted overall for Dems+Reps in 2012 v 2008, only 499 fewer voted for them in 2012.

So how can you conclude that Florida was a collapse for Romney?

stukinIL4now on November 9, 2012 at 12:45 PM

My hostility to Rubio is that he’s going to get the Presidential nod just because of skin tone. And then the GOP is going to be shocked when the lose still..

Illinidiva on November 9, 2012 at 12:45 PM

People are not dumb. They see the dim future prospect and voted for more security (i.e. sugardaddy, santa claus, whatever).

More Americans AND Non-Americans voted for free stuff rather than work hard. Does it matter if they are Catholics, young women, Jews, or Cuban-Americans?

Sir Napsalot on November 9, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Rubio/Martinez 2016! You get hour Hispanics, Catholics and women all in one ticket. In America we grew up in, Bob McDonnell would have been a great choice. I like Nikki Haley, but she is the wrong color brown. Perhaps she can pass for Hispanic.

Rockshine on November 9, 2012 at 1:56 PM

The Cuban-Americans have transitioned from anti-Communism to “I want free ”. Sad.

Steve Eggleston on November 9, 2012 at 11:55 AM

No, they haven’t. Geez… Some of the people on this forum kill me. Two things are happening with the Cuban vote. First, the exile generation is getting older, and becoming less relevant. The newer generation of Cubans don’t have the rigid, reflexive anti-communist bent. The second thing that is happening with the Cubans is that many of them are small business owners, and these business owners are sympathetic to many of the new immigrants, because they are their employees. And they perceive a degree of hostility towards these immigrants in the enforcement position.

Neither of these things suggest that they are now moochers.

ghostwriter on November 9, 2012 at 2:35 PM

Rubio/Martinez 2016! You get hour Hispanics, Catholics and women all in one ticket. In America we grew up in, Bob McDonnell would have been a great choice. I like Nikki Haley, but she is the wrong color brown. Perhaps she can pass for Hispanic.

Rockshine on November 9, 2012 at 1:56 PM

I rally hope that we don’t start picking our tickets that way. It’s just so vapid. I wouldn’t mind seeing either Rubio or Martinez on the ticket, but that’s because I like them.

ghostwriter on November 9, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Hannity now supports “pathway to citizenship?”

http://www.mediaite.com/online/sean-hannity-ive-evolved-on-immigration-reform-support-pathway-to-citizenship/

Wow.

MikeknaJ on November 9, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Romney really hurt himself with his immigration position. I was afraid of that all along, but I had hoped that he would get away with it…

ghostwriter on November 9, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Heck of a job Rubio… Total political genius there.

Illinidiva on November 9, 2012 at 11:44 AM

What is with your hostility toward Rubio? He wasn’t on the ticket…hardly think it’s his fault. Let’s face it, they’re joining Hispanics as a whole in voting for the party promising more stuff. That’s the bottom line. Castro and anti-communism are no longer the issues they once were.

changer1701 on November 9, 2012 at 11:58 AM

I think Illinidiva is complaining about the Dream Act. I think you are correct about anti-communisism not being quite the issue that it once was. However, they aren’t lining up for free stuff, wither.

ghostwriter on November 9, 2012 at 2:45 PM

Laura Ingram has a point on this amnesty talk. If we just try to buy off the various races and identities like democrats do, the democrats will always just offer a little more. We won’t win the gifts from the treasury game. We need to sell our ideas better, not just spend other peoples money more.

MechanicalBill on November 9, 2012 at 12:15 PM

She does have a ppoint. However, I think that she misses the larger issue. The idea of doing an amnesty/enforcement approach on immigration would be to neutralize it as a wedge issue. It wouldn’t be to buy them off, but rather, to dispose of the issue, so that we could pursue other objectives, like rolling back the welfare state.

ghostwriter on November 9, 2012 at 2:49 PM