Green Room

The national exit poll

posted at 9:30 am on November 7, 2012 by

CNN has what appears to be the final national exit poll data. Open it up, then open the 2008 national exit poll data in a separate tab and compare/contrast.

The story of the election: Obama turned out his base. As a percentage of the electorate, young voters (18-29) actually increased by a point. So did turnout among Latinos. And turnout among blacks matched 2008. O’s ground game was simply amazing.

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and the only way to change that would be to try to out give the Democrats.

well, hispanics, are socially conservative, and i have never seen one looking for a handout, but lots looking to work – any kind of work. i am a purist on immigration and illegals, but, there must be something that can be done without compromising principles

runner on November 7, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Okay, first off, take the National Exist poll with a grain of salt. I’ve read that it wasn’t a complete nationwide poll this year and left off a number of predominantly Red states. This would have skewed the results ever so slightly, so it doesn’t say TOO much about the make-up of the country.

As for what happened last night. The best analysis I’ve read so far is over at Battleground Watch.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/07/the-sun-came-up/

I don’t have too much to add, but I do have a few things to say.

Anybody that wants to blame Romney in this case, is dodging the real issue. Romney was a flawed candidate, but he ran a magnificent campaign, and managed to leverage his strengths magnificently. Had it not been for Hurricane Sandy, he WOULD HAVE WON.

The proof of this is in the late deciders. Challengers typically take late deciders by an overwhelming margin, upward to 80%. This time Romney only won late deciders narrowly. Additionally, Obama was bleeding far more crossover votes to Romney until Hurricane Sandy hit. Suffice to say, the storm gave Obama’s campaign a shot in the arm, at the absolute worst possible time. Had the election been held even a few days later, I think we would’ve seen a different result.

That however, wasn’t the fundamental problem. Like I said, Romney leveraged his strengths well. He easily came out on top on the economic issue. However, ultimately a narrow majority of Americans wouldn’t vote on that issue alone.

As much as I respect and admire Romney, he did not fire up the base until very late in the game, and that had negative consequences for turnout.

To be fair, Romney outperformed the rest of the Republican field by leaps and bounds. Even on the furthest left leaning polls Romney about tied on favorability/likeability with Obama near the end. For a candidate that was as thoroughly smeared at he was, that is an amazing accomplishment. The rest of the Republican field, was almost universally destroyed, by large margins.

I think, last night, the biggest failure was on the senate level. Had the Republican party fielded popular well liked senate candidates in Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, we could have conceivably flipped all three states to our column, despite Hurricane Sandy giving Obama a shot in the arm.

The moral of the story is that we cannot field long time party insiders, OR SoCon types like Mourdock and Akin. The former simply cannot galvanize the same sentiments that ultimately carried the tea party, and the later only hurt themselves AND the national Republican ticket.

And before anybody jumps in, no neither of these candidates would have won had the GOP not abandoned them! I’m sorry but if you believe this, you’re completely divorced from modern American life. These candidates were destroyed, in Indiana and MISSOURI of all places! If candidates like these cannot even get close in states like THESE of all places, then they cannot win ANYWHERE!

This does not mean socially conservative candidates cannot win. However they need to be able to appeal to more than JUST So Cons. If they are not eloquent and effective advocates for their cause, than they do more harm than good and should NOT be ran, period!

One final thought, as a party we need to take better advantage of Early voting. The reports of short lines at most democratic precincts I think is proof that most democrats had already voted by election day. The unaffiliated and independent voters that cast their votes before election day were probably mostly stealth democrats, this is the only explanation as to how Republicans could outnumber democrats in early voting in Colorado, beat democrats on election day, and somehow still lose.

I think the stories about record breaking election day turnout in Republican precincts are probably true, but its simply too much to expect one day of voting to completely offset weeks worth of voting. If we cannot get within at least spitting distance of winning before election day, you’re going to have a major struggle on your hands, regardless of how well you do.

WolvenOne on November 7, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Agree about Akin and Mourdouck… bad candidates. Also, Tommy Thompson was 70, George Allen lost a Senate race. Get some better candidates in the Senate races.

Illinidiva on November 7, 2012 at 11:13 AM

The biggest mystery of this election: “The Missing McCain Voters”… We lost the elections because of this since Obama lost 10 millions of his voters from 2008…

Evengelical voters not wanting a Mormon?… I think that is the most possible scenario…

mnjg on November 7, 2012 at 11:13 AM

you nailed it. Nobody wants to talk about the big, evangelical elephant in the room. Or rather, not in the room cus he sat at home with his “mormons are a cult” pamphlets.

johnnyboy on November 7, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Exactly… We lost the elections because 3 to 5 millions Evengelical stayed home in 2012… It is the Mormon thing for them…

mnjg on November 7, 2012 at 11:17 AM

The common thread here is that RINOs stopped supporting them.

Dems elected a woman that claimed she was an Indian. They stood by her. She won.

faraway on November 7, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Nobody stood by Warren. Exactly what support did she get from the Obama campaign? Zilch that I can see.

Akin and Mourdock hurt the party significantly with women. Romney’s attempt to run to the right of Rick Perry on immigration destroyed any hope we had of limiting damage with latinos.

I don’t know how we win without social conservatives on board.

But I don’t know how we win with them on the ticket, either.

Caiwyn on November 7, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Romney was a flawed candidate, but he ran a magnificent campaign, and managed to leverage his strengths magnificently. Had it not been for Hurricane Sandy, he WOULD HAVE WON.

If the campaign was so great, how did Obama take advantage of a hurricane, and Romney did not?

Bush lost support because of a hurricane.

Where was a shirtless Paul Ryan handing out relief supplies?

faraway on November 7, 2012 at 11:25 AM

The states that have the most evangelicals supported Romney. I don’t understand why people are saying they didn’t. I think the unions in the purple states are the ones who didn’t support Romney.

Rose on November 7, 2012 at 11:29 AM

So the Evangelicals came out? How bout in Ohio?

LurkerDood on November 7, 2012 at 11:37 AM

So the Evangelicals came out? How bout in Ohio?

LurkerDood on November 7, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Ohio is part of the Bible Belt now???? hahahahaha

faraway on November 7, 2012 at 11:43 AM

If the campaign was so great, how did Obama take advantage of a hurricane, and Romney did not?

Bush lost support because of a hurricane.

Where was a shirtless Paul Ryan handing out relief supplies?

faraway on November 7, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Two things.

First off, Katrina initially did not hurt Bush. It took about a week for the news cycle shifting from focusing on the humanitarian aspect of the crisis to assigning political blame.

Second, the media did not cover the disastrous aftermath of the Hurricane nearly as heavily. In part because of the adoration so much of the media has for Obama, and because the election cycle drowned a lot of that news out.

Basically, Obama got the full force of the front loaded benefits of being a leader in a time of crisis, but wasn’t hit with the negative consequences that typically come later.

Also, the Romney campaign did devote a lot of effort into relief during the Hurricane, and was mocked for it by the media.

Seriously, its a wonder we EVER win with the media so openly opposed to Republicans.

WolvenOne on November 7, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Southern OH is. Yes, the elephant in the room is the Mormon thing. That was being danced around all.day.

Illinidiva on November 7, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Southern OH is. Yes, the elephant in the room is the Mormon thing. That was being danced around all.day.

Illinidiva on November 7, 2012 at 11:52 AM

You trolls are hilarious. We are racists even when Obama wins!!!

faraway on November 7, 2012 at 11:55 AM

O’s ground game was simply amazing.

He never, ever stopped campaigning! I mean really. He has been on the ground in the swing states for 6 years. They should have to shut down their offices after the election, and shouldn’t be able to open them up and start campaigning one year out. The big question is, who are the democrats going to have next year? This may open up the door for Hillary to run, and win pretty easily. That is such a scary thought, I don’t want to imagine it!

Here is a modest forecast for the next four years:

1. At least a $1 trillion dollar deficit each year in government spending, not the budget since they can’t bring themselves to pass one.
2. Business owners dump workers onto the government healthcare dols to avoid extra costs, and because it is cheaper
3. Unemployment stays over 7% for the rest of his tenure in office
4. Energy prices double over the next four years due to Obama’s regulations
5. Healthcare premiums increase by 50% on average, eventhough he said that it would bend the cost-curve down
6. There is another attack in the middle east, and once again nothing is done about it, along with Obama not taking the blame
7. The US credit rating is downgraded to worse than Greece due to his spending
8. Obama spends even more money on green energy projects, losing even more taxpayer money in the process
9. US electricity generation records the lowest output it has seen per capita in 50 years due to EPA regulations and no new coal plants being built.
10. Food prices increase 30-60% on higher energy prices, and new vehicle standards required by the EPA
11. Another 10 million go on foodstamps

If after all of that, the majority of people still think that the democratic “vision” is what the US needs to move forward and increase wealth, then I don’t know what can change it.

Patriot Vet on November 7, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Evengelical voters not wanting a Mormon?… I think that is the most possible scenario…

mnjg on November 7, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I don’t know for sure, but if you go back to the late GOP primary days, my position against Romney was the fact that as a Christian, I would never support a Mormon. On top of that, he is very religious…no thanks. And I’m an indy mostly con, but don’t identify with Murdock or Romney’s extreme view on some things.

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 7, 2012 at 12:20 PM

The National Exit Poll could just as easily be called The Nation Teet Suckers Poll or The National Whiners Poll.

bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Well, by not voting you effectively voted for the atheist.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 7, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Patriot Vet on November 7, 2012 at 12:07 PM

I would add in Financial Collapse. I just don’t see how we avoid it. Unless you are saying the downgrade of debt is tantamount to financial collapse.

bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 2:07 PM

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