Green Room

Service with a smile …

posted at 1:43 pm on November 7, 2012 by

For those who are reading the comment threads today, there have been a number of calls for AP and me to apologize for “misleading” people about polling and the electorate.  I appended an apology to my earlier explanation, for basing my analysis of the polls on my assumption that 2008 was an anomaly and not a realignment, which formed the basis of all my poll analysis.  (I spent 20 years in customer service; apologies do not frighten me.)  However, as I said in the update, I had no intention of misleading anyone; I wrote what I truly thought to be correct.

Why was I convinced that the electorate had remained center-right even after 2008′s big Democratic wave?  Certainly, I didn’t like the outcome in 2008, but we had some data points between then and now that, while incomplete, pointed to solid movement to the right:

  • 2009 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia
  • 2010 special election for the US Senate seat in Massachusetts
  • 2010 midterm elections with a 72-year record shift in the House to the GOP
  • 2011-12 recall elections in Wisconsin

My analysis certainly proved to be wrong, while the polls turned out to get the nature of the electorate correct. I do apologize for missing this by as much as I did, without hesitation.  However it turned out last night, though, those assumptions were not irrational considering the elections that took place between November 2008 and November 2012, and my erroneous assumptions were not intended to deceive.

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Think everyone is still in shock Ed, not HA’s fault we lost.

That said, I think we’re doomed. Can’t wait to read AP’s Ultra Eeyore Supreme post tonight.

John_Locke on November 7, 2012 at 1:50 PM

The only thing to apologize for is underestimating how many low information voters there are. And underestimating the fraud.

rbj on November 7, 2012 at 1:50 PM

It’s hard to believe that a majority of the electorate could be so sophomoric in their thinking not to realize that the free stuff will run out and they will be worse off, and have destroyed the engine of prosperity along with the decision to take, take, take without producing anything themselves.

The only reason we were ALL fooled is because we can’t think in such naive, truly ignorant ways.

But now we must accept it. We must. They are forcing us to do what they have always accused us of: take care of ourselves and our families and that’s it. The government will now take from us so we won’t have as much time or treasure to donate to charity anyway, so I am done with taking care of anyone other than myself and my family. No more charitable giving of money or time from me.

So no apology necessary. We were all fooled. But no more.

JustTruth101 on November 7, 2012 at 1:52 PM

The only thing to apologize for is underestimating how many low information voters there are. And underestimating the fraud.

rbj on November 7, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Fraud doesn’t explain the magnitude of the loss, although I seriously question FL’s results, simply due to the fact that every poll had Romney up for months.

John_Locke on November 7, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Not ur fault. 2010 was great. Thought it would be great again.

mrscullen on November 7, 2012 at 1:53 PM

But now we must accept it. We must. They are forcing us to do what they have always accused us of: take care of ourselves and our families and that’s it. The government will now take from us so we won’t have as much time or treasure to donate to charity anyway, so I am done with taking care of anyone other than myself and my family. No more charitable giving of money or time from me.

So no apology necessary. We were all fooled. But no more.

JustTruth101 on November 7, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Yes. Thinking about ‘retiring’ at 25, find some cheap land and live bare minimum so I’m not paying for someone else to be an ass.

Don’t know how we escape/save ourselves from the coming fiscal collapse.

John_Locke on November 7, 2012 at 1:54 PM

However it turned out last night, though, those assumptions were not irrational considering the elections that took place between November 2008 and November 2012, and my erroneous assumptions were not intended to deceive.

except for the fact that the vast majority of actual evidence (the polls) showed you were wildly off in those assumptions. Unless I missed some posts, you barely even acknowledged the possibility that you were misreading things. As you noted, your experience is in customer service; perhaps you shouldn’t be making such assured predictions in areas where you clearly have no expertise. That’s the disservice you did to hot air readers.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Everyone single fundamental favored Romney, except Demographics.

That’s what none of us were taking into account. There are finally enough people in the Dem coalition to win national elections regardless of the fundamentals.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Everyone single fundamental favored Romney, except Ddemographics.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Yikes. Bad job of multi-tasking there.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 1:59 PM

We’re all gonna die!!!!

Seriously, we’re all gonna die. We lost the race between a critical mass of the voting populace becoming adicted to “free” stuff and a critical mass of the voting populace voting populace realizing the “free” stuff is anything but free, and it is going to take a collapse that historically has caused violent revolution to change that.

Steve Eggleston on November 7, 2012 at 2:00 PM

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 1:58 PM

gp

JustTruth101 on November 7, 2012 at 2:00 PM

except for the fact that the vast majority of actual evidence (the polls) showed you were wildly off in those assumptions. Unless I missed some posts, you barely even acknowledged the possibility that you were misreading things. As you noted, your experience is in customer service; perhaps you shouldn’t be making such assured predictions in areas where you clearly have no expertise. That’s the disservice you did to hot air readers.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Were you only reading HA for predictions? Might want to vary your sources.

John_Locke on November 7, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Ed, no worries. Your reasons are just, and I never thought you were attempting to mislead, and I still don’t. You were mistaken. Yeah, well, I make at least 2-3 mistakes every day. The only people who never make mistakes are the people who never do anything.

My only gripe is that you had reached the point where you were finding the same issues with EVERY poll. I think when it’s a week out and you still think every poll is wrong, it’s time to re-evaluate your premise.

My dad has a saying, that’s tangentially appropriate.

“If more than three people in your life are a**holes, then maybe the problem isn’t them.”

If you think all the polls are wrong, maybe the problem isn’t the polls.

Chris of Rights on November 7, 2012 at 2:01 PM

That’s what none of us were taking into account. There are finally enough people in the Dem coalition to win national elections regardless of the fundamentals.
BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 1:58 PM

don’t you think its a huge problem that no one in the conservative media pointed out that possibility?

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Hey don’t worry about it Ed. At least in my book you’re alright. While I don’t like O – the cult of personality is awfully strong for low information voters; never underestimate the groupthink of “he’s cool” and I don’t think the nation got the seriousness of the situation. Maybe that changes, but I thought better of the American people, even with the deceit of the media.

Tacitus on November 7, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Haven’t said it yet, Ed, but I wish to say a word of thanks to you and the crew at HA for the marathon work done during these last weeks.

bandarlog on November 7, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Thanks for the explanations Ed.

I am coming to the realization that America is not the America I grew up in. (I’m 34 years old).

I couldn’t believe America could change so fast.

portlandon on November 7, 2012 at 2:08 PM

The problem for me was poll selection bias near the end of the campaign. Like Drudge, polls featured here seemed to show only neutral to good news for Mitt Romney. Though nobody here gets ALL their news from this site, that still presented a – I hate to say it – skewed view of the data.

Incidentally, Ohio was D +8 last night.

YYZ on November 7, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Isn’t anyone else worried that Ed sees no problem in the methods behind his analysis? He admits that his predictions were ultimately wrong, but sees nothing wrong with the process that led him to those results.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:10 PM

don’t you think its a huge problem that no one in the conservative media pointed out that possibility?

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:03 PM

I’m guessing the anemic economic growth, high unemployment and record deficits are the reason.

Obama – or, more accurately, the natural growth of his base – defied history to win re-election.

It might have even happened in 2008 and we just didn’t recognize it. Either way, there aren’t enough traditional republican voters to counterbalance it anymore.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 2:11 PM

What the firetruck? What in the world would y’all have to apologize for? Hey Ed, give me the winning numbers for Power Ball, no apologizes accepted later if you are wrong.

Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Yep, number one concern is the economy, vast majority thinks we are on the wrong track, outcome, reelect Obama! Damn you, Ed.

Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:14 PM

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Umm, it’s a conservative website. People getting mad at the writers for their predictions are being stupid. There was no disservice to Hot Air readers, except maybe those that bet money on one source of analysis, and that’s just being, like I said, stupid. That said, to say Ed has “clearly no expertise” in the area of political punditry is likewise being stupid. So, you’ve always got that going for you.

change is for suckers on November 7, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Isn’t anyone else worried that Ed sees no problem in the methods behind his analysis? He admits that his predictions were ultimately wrong, but sees nothing wrong with the process that led him to those results.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:10 PM

No. The method seems fine in a world with 8% unemployment, a dead ambassador, a doubled debt, and nationalization of healthcare.

If unemployment had been 4% and Obamacare was never passed/proposed, then I would have thought Ed was full of it. But given the insanity that you have to have to vote for O this time around, it seemed rational to me as well.

John_Locke on November 7, 2012 at 2:16 PM

I’m guessing the anemic economic growth, high unemployment and record deficits are the reason.

I get that the “fundamentals” pointed to an O defeat. But its not like this defeat came out if nowhere. The polls have been predicting this more or less from day 1. And hot air almost entirely ignored them.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:17 PM

The only clue that I think I should have noticed is that AP wasn’t his usual Eeyore self. I don’t regret it, it was nice to see him think we had a snowball’s chance in hell.

Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:18 PM

If unemployment had been 4% and Obamacare was never passed/proposed, then I would have thought Ed was full of it. But given the insanity that you have to have to vote for O this time around, it seemed rational to me as well.

John_Locke on November 7, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Exactly.

These are fundementals under which no candidate should have ever won re-election. Ever.

It’s not unreasonable to think Romney should have won despite being a little behind in the polls.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 2:19 PM

No worries Ed

Thanks to you and the rest of the HA staff for being here

cmsinaz on November 7, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Umm, it’s a conservative website. People getting mad at the writers for their predictions are being stupid

the reason I read hot air is because i thought it was a conservative site minus the hackery of people like hannity. Ed is quite clear that he’s conservative, but he presents his arguments in a calm and well reasoned way. At least I thought that was true but now it seems he’s jut as susceptible to the rose colored glasses or else is wholly incompetent.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:22 PM

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:22 PM

What would you have done differently if Hot Air had promoted the possibility of a loss with more vigor? Did you now consider it?

Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:26 PM

The only clue that I think I should have noticed is that AP wasn’t his usual Eeyore self.

Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:18 PM

LOL.

True, AP really needs to stay true to being a Puddleglum…

bandarlog on November 7, 2012 at 2:30 PM

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:22 PM

I read a decent amount of lefty literature, and no one was really making big picture arguments about shifting demographics. You see articles pop up from time to time, but it hasn’t really been a consistent theme.

It was basically “the polls say Obama’s good, and that’s good enough for us.”

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Ed,certainly no apologies necessary from you and the rest of the Hot Air crew. The country has apparently changed in ways not easily imaginable. What’s next?

Mason on November 7, 2012 at 2:32 PM

What would you have done differently if Hot Air had promoted the possibility of a loss with more vigor? Did you now consider it?
Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:26 PM

I can’t say that I would have some anything differently. But like I said before, if I wanted hackery I would listen to hannity. Hotair holds itself out as being better than that.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:32 PM

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:22 PM

“Wholly incompetent” at what? Providing his opinion on what he personally believes based on looking at numerous variables and historical precedent? You don’t like his analysis in hindsight, fine, read someone else. I don’t think you can legitimately claim that Allahpundit is susceptible to wearing rose-colored glasses. So, read him. But don’t come in here acting like Ed is to political punditry what Obama is to the American presidency.

change is for suckers on November 7, 2012 at 2:33 PM

What’s fundamental? Gimme my Obamaphone.

forest on November 7, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Good thing he cleared up the Hurricane Sandy mess so quickly.

Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:35 PM

Thanks for that, Ed. I was wrong when I predicted you wouldn’t apologize. I’m sorry. The national healing has begun!

Alpha_Male on November 7, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Hotair holds itself out as being better than that.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:32 PM

If you’re going to stop reading HotAir, just do it already. Stop telling us about it.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Oops! I answered my own question. Benghazi.

Mason on November 7, 2012 at 2:37 PM

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Hackery? Wow. Let us know when you find a blog that meets your rigid standards. I think you might want to go the Nate Silver’s writings, I hear he knows his stuff.

Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Hackery? Wow. Let us know when you find a blog that meets your rigid standards. I think you might want to go the Nate Silver’s writings, I hear he knows his stuff.
Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:37 PM

it seems no conservative blogs meet that standard at least based non the election. That’s a pretty big problem unless you just prefer to be spoonfed exactly what you want to hear.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:41 PM

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:41 PM

My problem is that I read for information and then make up my own mind. How many times and from how many people did you need to hear that the election was close? So if it had still been close but Gov. Romney would have won, Hot Air would have been the stuff? I am sorry you were tricked into thinking Obama couldn’t win.

Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:44 PM

ou don’t like his analysis in hindsight, fine, read someone else. I don’t think you can legitimately claim that Allahpundit is susceptible to wearing rose-colored glasses.

I agree whole heartedly about ap. He’s the last person I would have suspected to be so blinded.

Also, it’s not just the fact that Ed and ap were wrong. At least ed’s entire theory behind his analysis, that you should adjust poll demographics based on what you think they should be, is bunk. He clearly doesn’t believe that.

How can anyone now believe ed’s gut? What happens the next time he sees a poll that doesn’t “feel” right.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:46 PM

Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Well said, Cindy. But in the Age of Obama, perhaps thinking for oneself is no longer necessary. From now on, I need Ed to tell me what to believe, and if it does not come to pass, then shame on him.

change is for suckers on November 7, 2012 at 2:47 PM

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 2:41 PM

It’s not like this was a blowout. Electorally, maybe, but if a handful of states had a 2% shift Romney would be the next President.

Thinking the fundamentals would rule the day isn’t ‘hackery’, especially since the same polls showing Obama up in swing states showed Republicans with a healthy lead in enthusiasm.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 2:49 PM

then shame on him.

change is for suckers on November 7, 2012 at 2:47 PM

It is an interesting tactic, Obama practices it all the time. It is my goal in life to be just like Obama./

Cindy Munford on November 7, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Ed you and Allah did a great job this whole election season. BTW things broke the way they did after Sandy. Things could have broken differently. The result was not inevitable. Ask Nate Silver.

Ted Torgerson on November 7, 2012 at 3:00 PM

I was an orca guy in WI. About 11% of voters were same day registrants! Not even registered voter polls would have picked these guys up. These people have always been here but have thought politics too boring or complicated to vote about. Then came Jon Stewart. America hasn’t changed but the electorate has. Luckily the Dems don’t have anyone with the cool factor on their bench like O does. The Comedy Centralization of the issues is winning the day for the Dems but is dumbing our discourse done to nothing.

xuyee on November 7, 2012 at 3:03 PM

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