Green Room

Just a reminder: Early exit polls are crapola

posted at 6:35 pm on November 6, 2012 by

Ed already reminded you once of this today, I’m reminding you again. Even lefty poll experts like Mark Blumenthal are warning their readers not to buy in, lest the ineffable heartache of 2004 be duplicated.

But Drudge is the colossus that bestrides the news world and he’s decided he’s going to make a big deal of this, so naturally readers are commenting about it in the threads. Taegan Goddard, who’s also cautioning his readers not to put any stock in the data, has what he says is the early data that Drudge is seeing. You can look if you’re curious, but you’re a fool if you think it matters.

Update: The final exit polls, released late this evening or tomorrow, will be more useful in figuring out why Romney won or lost. Here’s a benchmark to watch via the Journal’s Gerald Seib:

Exit polls in 2008 indicated that 74% of those who cast ballots were white. If the white share of the electorate drops, say to 72%, it seems pretty clear Mr. Obama will win. If it rises, to say 76%, that means Mr. Romney likely is going to win. If the level stays constant, it could be a long night.

Parallel question: Can Mr. Obama win 40% or more of the white vote? If he does, he’ll be in good shape.

Recently in the Green Room:

Blowback

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Thank you.

cheetah2 on November 6, 2012 at 6:37 PM

So hold off on the rioting a little bit longer?

WordsMatter on November 6, 2012 at 6:39 PM

NC only R+1? We’ll see soon enough, but I’m not buying it.

Lawdawg86 on November 6, 2012 at 6:42 PM

If we normalize based on NC being R+1, things look pretty good.

besser tot als rot on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Thanks AP. I got some sense talked into me. I’m okay now. 🙂

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Still contemplating hitting myself in the head with a hammer, so I can avoid the tension of the next several hours.

Where’d I put it…

RedCrow on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM


HotAir — Politics, Culture, Media, 2017, Breaking News from a conservative viewpoint
Top Pick

Testing the waters.

Top Pick

“primarily because the penalty for not having insurance would be eliminated.”

“If I were a Seattle lawmaker, I would be thinking hard about the $15 an hour phase-in.”

Days of future past

“Not only are taxpayers footing the bill, but people are dying unnecessarily because of this.”

Israel settles who can stand where at the Western Wall

Andrew Malcolm Jun 26, 2017 3:21 PM

Women to the right, men to the left.

Look on the bright side. There’s less snow in the summer

Big win … but for how long?

“Several Russian cities have unveiled monuments to Stalin in recent months.”

Massive disappointment

Emboldened conservative wing?

It’s more about the powers of the Presidency at this point

A second look at paper ballots?

Jazz Shaw Jun 26, 2017 10:41 AM

Low tech solutions to high tech crime

No extra beatings required, thanks

A “”massive, massive f*** up…”

This is totally amazing!

McConnell may not get his wish on health care vote

Taylor Millard Jun 25, 2017 7:31 PM

Senate leadership wants a vote this week, others say, “Negative, Ghost Rider.”

Helping others without the government.

“…the reality is the reality.”

These kiosks don’t make $15 per hour or need benefits

Going for the record

“We will answer them on the field”

Taking it to the limit

Sunday morning talking heads

Jazz Shaw Jun 25, 2017 8:01 AM

Health care and tweeting and Russia, oh my!

Will they stay or will they go?

I can’t imagine what I was thinking when I said that

Rocking the boat majorly

Big government never contracts. It only grows more powerful

It’s only a “ban” until it becomes inconvenient

The decline and fall of Obamacare and the AHCA

Jazz Shaw Jun 24, 2017 8:31 AM

This was all over before it began

Fixing crime in America is a complicated issue

Taylor Millard Jun 23, 2017 8:31 PM

Cops alone won’t solve it.

Victim’s father was President Maduro’s supervisor back when he was a bus driver.

Democrats forgot all about the “era of good feelings”

“Bernie and Jane Sanders have lawyered up.”

“the Judiciary Committee is examining the circumstances surrounding the removal of James Comey.”

Winning isn’t everything. It is the only thing

Trump signs VA reform bill into law

John Sexton Jun 23, 2017 2:41 PM

“What happened was a national disgrace, and yet some of the employees involved in these scandals remained on the payrolls.”