Green Room

Just a reminder: Early exit polls are crapola

posted at 6:35 pm on November 6, 2012 by

Ed already reminded you once of this today, I’m reminding you again. Even lefty poll experts like Mark Blumenthal are warning their readers not to buy in, lest the ineffable heartache of 2004 be duplicated.

But Drudge is the colossus that bestrides the news world and he’s decided he’s going to make a big deal of this, so naturally readers are commenting about it in the threads. Taegan Goddard, who’s also cautioning his readers not to put any stock in the data, has what he says is the early data that Drudge is seeing. You can look if you’re curious, but you’re a fool if you think it matters.

Update: The final exit polls, released late this evening or tomorrow, will be more useful in figuring out why Romney won or lost. Here’s a benchmark to watch via the Journal’s Gerald Seib:

Exit polls in 2008 indicated that 74% of those who cast ballots were white. If the white share of the electorate drops, say to 72%, it seems pretty clear Mr. Obama will win. If it rises, to say 76%, that means Mr. Romney likely is going to win. If the level stays constant, it could be a long night.

Parallel question: Can Mr. Obama win 40% or more of the white vote? If he does, he’ll be in good shape.

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Thank you.

cheetah2 on November 6, 2012 at 6:37 PM

So hold off on the rioting a little bit longer?

WordsMatter on November 6, 2012 at 6:39 PM

NC only R+1? We’ll see soon enough, but I’m not buying it.

Lawdawg86 on November 6, 2012 at 6:42 PM

If we normalize based on NC being R+1, things look pretty good.

besser tot als rot on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Thanks AP. I got some sense talked into me. I’m okay now. 🙂

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Still contemplating hitting myself in the head with a hammer, so I can avoid the tension of the next several hours.

Where’d I put it…

RedCrow on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM