This is an important point: Colorado is the ONLY state in the union with an even PVI of Zero (Cook Partisan Voting Index).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

Meaning that the result in CO is likely a identical match of the national popular vote.

Think about that for a second…

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Exactly! Even if it’s “only” a 51-48 win CO, we’re talking 51-48 nationwide. And what too few in the media seem to remember these days: Ohio is R+1. 51-48 in CO translates to 52-47 there. Battle lines then drawn in IA, WI, PA, NH and Romney’s number appears to be 281-305.

Very interesting, D-34.5/R-36.4/I-28.9; This appears to be a little different than the D+6 and D+11 polls. As it stands now this is a R-+1.

DDay on November 6, 2012 at 4:39 PM

Republicans always win the Election Day vote here in Colorado; expect that to be turnout figure to be R+2 or higher when all is done.

This is an important point: Colorado is the ONLY state in the union with an even PVI of Zero (Cook Partisan Voting Index).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

Meaning that the result in CO is likely a identical match of the national popular vote.

Think about that for a second…

Nate Silver had CO going to Obama 80-20% over Romney..

LOLLERCOPTER!!!

rgrovr on November 6, 2012 at 2:06 PM

*STRAPS ON LOLLERSKATES*

In ohter words;

This county has a registration composition of 38% R and 34% D; Rs are currently making up 43% of the total vote (D still at 34%).

Huge turnout advantage for Republicans.

Silver also awards virginia and Florida to BO (although Florida is very close in his model)

I think the vets and active military guys will not like the Benghazi saga they see and will keep both for Romney.

KW64 on November 6, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Early numbers from FL (Pasco County) suggest a significant turnout advantage (including early votes) for Republicans at R+5 over their

http://www.pascovotes.com/turnout.asp

And it’s not a tiny county, it has over 300,000 registered voters.

FL won’t be close.

Nate Silver had CO going to Obama 80-20% over Romney..

LOLLERCOPTER!!!

rgrovr on November 6, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Silver also awards virginia and Florida to BO (although Florida is very close in his model)

I think the vets and active military guys will not like the Benghazi saga they see and will keep both for Romney.

FWIW, I’m watching Intrade. CO is getting heavy action back and forth.

GuyInL.A. on November 6, 2012 at 4:16 PM

The numbers there are bound to keep swinging and swinging, as the bettors are desperately trying to recoup whatever money they can.

Keep an eye on VA, imho.

TallDave on November 6, 2012 at 4:10 PM

Look, just let me enjoy my tingle, ok?

If Romney wins CO by 5-7 we’re looking at 300+ EVs

It’s certainly possible, but state votes can be a little schizo — no one would have expected O to take IN but lose MO.

Keep an eye on VA, imho.

Perfect.

5-7 seems most likely.

TallDave on November 6, 2012 at 4:02 PM

You just sent a tingle up my leg.

If Romney wins CO by 5-7 we’re looking at 300+ EVs

No way there was D+2 of 75% of the total vote and then Obama won by 9% overall. Would have been a flood of pubs voting Obama in ’08.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:57 PM

yeah, that would have meant that Obama won, like what, all of the votes on election day?

So even though Kerry outperformed Bush in CO on election day in 2004, you believe Romney outperforms Obama today?

Are you sure about that? I saw the HuffPo link, but it sounds wrong. Never heard of Dems outperforming their early vote.

At any rate, Obama did NOT win election day in 2008, which seems a lot more relevant than 2004, especially given the size of his overall win.

Obama won the early vote by 9 percentage points in 2008, giving him a big enough cushion to win the state, despite narrowly losing the Election Day vote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/03/2012-early-voting-_n_2068881.html

So I’d be shocked if R doesn’t take CO by at least 3. 5-7 seems most likely.

Chameleon on November 6, 2012 at 3:48 PM

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Trust me, we are in very good shape. Romney will win CO.

It’s worth noting that the RCP State Poll Average, Nate Silver and InTrade all predicted Obama would win Colorado. That should tell you everything you need to know about their prediction “skills” in other battleground states…

The D+4 and higher state poll turnout models were garbage, and it was demonstrably false for a long time looking at the Early Vote in Colorado.

This county went 60-40 for Obama in 2008
Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Awesome!

Great find, thanks!

I see that article conflicts with the one I quoted earlier. It has O+8 in early voting in 2008, en route to a final margin of 0+8.6. This makes sense given that 70+% of votes are cast early in CO.
EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Ah O+8 early vote in 2008.

That makes more sense. No way there was D+2 of 75% of the total vote and then Obama won by 9% overall. Would have been a flood of pubs voting Obama in ’08.

Just saw a retweet on Michelle Malkin’s feed that ROmney is on pace to win Adams County, CO, which hasn’t gone red since ’84. Don’t know what data was used to make the prediction…

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:37 PM

This county went 60-40 for Obama in 2008; while Kerry won by 4 point win in 2004.

This is in line with my 53-46 Romney win prediction. We are going to see a Romney win larger than Bush’s 51-48 win in 2004.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Great find, thanks!

I see that article conflicts with the one I quoted earlier. It has O+8 in early voting in 2008, en route to a final margin of 0+8.6. This makes sense given that 70+% of votes are cast early in CO.

This means that if Ras is correct and I’s go D+6, we still win by 2%.

So it seems like Ras’ prediction of R+3 in CO might be close. I’m still holding out hope that CO INDs break for Romney or DEM crossover is larger than expected, either of which would break open an otherwise tight race.

Again, it’s worth repeating that Obama won independents in Colorado by just 9 points in 2008.

I hope you are right, and I saw that from your link….If Obama only won indies by 9 in Colorado in ’08, then we look like we’re in good shape.

But I can’t figure out how this could be true unless *huge* numbers of Colorado Republicans went for Obama last time around.

So even though Kerry outperformed Bush in CO on election day in 2004, you believe Romney outperforms Obama today?

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 3:21 PM

This is a good write-up on the history of early voting in Colorado and the state of the race.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/03/colorado-state-of-the-race-early-voting-and-polls-by-david-ramos/

Again, it’s worth repeating that Obama won independents in Colorado by just 9 points in 2008. That was almost identical to his margin nationally at 8 points per exit polls.

So there is not going to be a big discrepancy between margins among independents nationally vs. Colorado. If they are tied (worst case scenario) Romney is up 3.5% in the early vote.

If this is trend (as in Ohio) in the turnout model, all the MSM (read NBC) based polling models are wrong.

Romney likely has a 3-4% lead in the early vote for 2012 (assuming even split in independents, so the lead could be wider), and will win Election Day voters by an even larger margin.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 3:17 PM

So even though Kerry outperformed Bush in CO on election day in 2004, you believe Romney outperforms Obama today?

So far I’m not seeing any reason to be excited about this early vote breakdown.

I’m with you…People here don’t seem to be paying attention to the independent vote which is what Obama crushed in 2012.

My napkin calculations suggest Obama won about 72% of independents in CO in ’08. That is extrapolating the early voting totals to final results. It may have been less, given there may have been more GOP crossover.

My napkin calculations suggest that, given the new early voting numbers, Obama will have to win about 55% of independents to win Colorado this year.

Every poll I’ve seen has Obama up among independents in Colorado, sometimes by huge margins.

That’s what I’m asking Norwegian. How’d McCain win on election day if early voting was D+2 (small) and Obama carried the state by 9%, when most folks early vote in Colorado? Did you have that many Republican crossovers last time? That’s the only explanation, right?

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:01 PM

If you adjust the 2008 early vote for Obama as follows:

Net 1 in 10 GOP cross-over votes to Obama
Obama carries independents by a 10 point margin (55-45)

That results in a Obama lead of 56%-44% in the early vote in 2008. Remember that nearly 80% off all votes cast.

Romney likely has a 3-4% lead in the early vote for 2012 (assuming even split in independents, so the lead could be wider), and will win Election Day voters by an even larger margin.

I just don’t see your and Nords enthusiam for a 16 pt swing, -9 to +7 (53-46) with such a small party ID early vote swing this time (3.5 or so %). That’s all.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:10 PM

That’s fine. A prediction is called a prediction for a reason.

If it was D+2 last time and now it’s R+1.5, is a 3.5 pc swing enough?

levi on November 6, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Thanks to the indie voters, it will be.

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 2:28 PM

A bit of mixed news here really. If it’s a uniform swing of 3.5, then nationally that’s a D+3.5, and we could be in for a long tense night. Numbers would appear to pan out around where Romney’s leaked internals were last night. Hope that’s enough for the margin of fraud.

On the other hand, this is a good indication Romney is winning Colorado, and with CO PVI at Even, that’s a fairly good indicator of the national popular vote. If this translates to about 51-48 in CO and nationwide, I’d like to think we’re pretty much okay with 285 or 295.

We may be talking about two different things here. Historically Republicans turnout in larger numbers then Democrats on election day in states with early voting. That doesn’t mean McCain won amongst election day voters. Although Obama probably already had a 9+ point lead amongst early voters. And since only about 20% of Coloradans voted on election day the margin of victory likely didn’t change very much.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 3:05 PM

OK, then based on that and the fact that early voting swung +3 to 4 total points in Romney’s direction, independents and/or crossovers will need to swing +5-6 in Romney’s direction also just to get back even 50-50 compared to 2008. I just don’t see your and Nords enthusiam for a 16 pt swing, -9 to +7 (53-46) with such a small party ID early vote swing this time (3.5 or so %). That’s all.

Republicans led Democrats in early voting [in 2004] by a 42-34% margin, on their way to carrying Colorado for Bush with 51.7% to Kerry’s 47%

So far I’m not seeing any reason to be excited about this early vote breakdown.

That’s what I’m asking Norwegian. How’d McCain win on election day if early voting was D+2 (small) and Obama carried the state by 9%, when most folks early vote in Colorado? Did you have that many Republican crossovers last time? That’s the only explanation, right?

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:01 PM

We may be talking about two different things here. Historically Republicans turnout in larger numbers then Democrats on election day in states with early voting. That doesn’t mean McCain won amongst election day voters. Although Obama probably already had a 9+ point lead amongst early voters. And since only about 20% of Coloradans voted on election day the margin of victory likely didn’t change very much.