Green Room

GOP wins EV turnout in CO

posted at 1:48 pm on November 6, 2012 by

That’s the report from the New York Times’ Jack Healy, based on a release this morning from the Secretary of State:

  • GOP: 688,503
  • Dem: 653,450
  • UAF (independents): 547,437

This morning, a false report from Ohio came from Gannett, but this one looks properly sourced.

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Courtesybears – I forgot to mention, besides our very good friend, my husband is also registered as an Independent, and he voted early for Romney. Further, another very good friend of mine is also an Independent and he voted early for Romney.

littlekittie on November 6, 2012 at 2:38 PM

What the hell does this represent?

The party affiliation of persons who voted early, or are these votes?

The commenters here are confusing me.

If these results report the affiliation of early voters, how do they know that?

If these are votes, who the hell is getting the independent votes?

BobMbx on November 6, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Yeah, the big thing here is how many of the Independents flipped their vote, and what % of the new Independents are voting for Romney. Just under 100k new Independent early voters.

nextgen_repub on November 6, 2012 at 2:40 PM

You guys are forgetting independents. What gave Obama that big a win in Colorado was his advantage among independents. He no longer has that advantage.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Ras had Obama up six with independents just a week ago. In ’08, Obama would have had to won them by 25-30 for Romney to make up the other 7-8% in addition to his +1.5 early vote lead he has this year. At least doing the math quickly in my head. I hope you’re right and I’m missing something, i jsut don’t see it right now.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 2:40 PM

What the hell does this represent?

The party affiliation of persons who voted early, or are these votes?

BobMbx on November 6, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Registered affiliation of early voters in Colorado, not actual votes.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 2:43 PM

<Ras had Obama up six with independents just a week ago. In ’08, Obama would have had to won them by 25-30 for Romney to make up the other 7-8% in addition to his +1.5 early vote lead he has this year. At least doing the math quickly in my head. I hope you’re right and I’m missing something, i jsut don’t see it right now.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 2:34 PM Not trying to be a jerk, but I have no idea what you are saying

nyclakerfan on November 6, 2012 at 2:45 PM

You guys are forgetting independents. What gave Obama that big a win in Colorado was his advantage among independents. He no longer has that advantage.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Obama also won nearly 1 in 10 Republican voters in 2008. Think that will happen again? The cross-over effect this year is likely favoring Romney.

Romney will also likely win independents in CO. Worst case scenario is an even spilt, but 2008 exits had Obama winning independents here by roughly the same margin as nationally. So if Romney wins independents by a comfortable margin nationally, he will carry them in Colorado.

So relax, CO is ours. 80% of the vote is already in; and Romney is ahead. The remaining 20% will break even more heavily for Romney.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Registered affiliation of early voters in Colorado, not actual votes.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Thanks.

I’m in Virginia where we don’t have party registration, so it seemed weird anyone would know that.

BobMbx on November 6, 2012 at 2:48 PM

The Romney margin will increase late this afternoon when the Republicans get off work and go vote!

Jack Slade on November 6, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Not trying to be a jerk, but I have no idea what you are saying

nyclakerfan on November 6, 2012 at 2:45 PM

Well I have no idea who’re responding to, because I didn’t post what you excerpted.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 2:50 PM

If we assume that Ras is about right with Obama 6 points ahead with independents, then around 30,000 more independent votes for Obama added to the Dem early votes puts Republican and Dem early votes about even on. I think.

DrStock on November 6, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Yeah I went back and read it and I didn’t either, sorry. At work, trying to type fast, etc.

2008: Obama wins early vote by D+2% and the overall state by 9%.

So, if early voting were around 75% in ’08 too and Obama only had a +2% advantage, how in the hell did he win the state by 9%? He would have had to have won the 25% that voted on election day 62-38%. (28%margin*.25portion voting)=7%….7% on election day plus 2 early vote=9% win.

Just doesn’t add up to me.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Assuming no 3rd party votes, if GOP crossover is 3% and DEM crossover is 6%, and if IND split 50-50, early vote total would be:

Romney 980,773 51.9%
Obama 908,617 48.1%

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Just doesn’t add up to me.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 2:54 PM

He wouldn’t have needed that kind of margin on election day if early voting independents went heavily for him. Knowing the party affiliation of early voters does not tell us how they voted. We can only surmise that affiliated Democrats and Republicans voted heavily for their respective party’s candidate. Independents we have no idea until the election is examined afterwards.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Assuming no 3rd party votes, if GOP crossover is 3% and DEM crossover is 6%, and if INDs split D+6, early vote total would be:

Romney 964350 51.0%
Obama 925040 49.0%

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Assuming no 3rd party votes, if GOP crossover is 3% and DEM crossover is 6%, and if IND split 50-50, early vote total would be:

Romney 980,773 51.9%
Obama 908,617 48.1%

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 2:55 PM

And that is before Election Day voters; who traditionally favor Republicans. Turnout at my local Republican presinct here was higher than I have ever seen it, even surpassing 2004.

My final prediction for CO is 53-46 Romney.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 2:59 PM

My final prediction for CO is 53-46 Romney.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 2:59 PM

That’s the exact same prediction I have. Quit stealing my material. :P

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 3:00 PM

And that is before Election Day voters; who traditionally favor Republicans. Turnout at my local Republican presinct here was higher than I have ever seen it, even surpassing 2004.

My final prediction for CO is 53-46 Romney.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 2:59 PM

That’s what I’m asking Norwegian. How’d McCain win on election day if early voting was D+2 (small) and Obama carried the state by 9%, when most folks early vote in Colorado? Did you have that many Republican crossovers last time? That’s the only explanation, right?

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:01 PM

There is a big difference between “polls” pre election, and polls from the election day…nice try, but it’s apparent that Romney has taken an early substantial lead, especially considering past history.

I don’t agree. If the state polls from Ohio had been like other states with a +7 D advantage, then these early voting numbers would throw cold water all over them. But these numbers don’t seem at all out of line with the internals of the Colorado state polls.

In ’09 early voting was 37.7(D) 35.9(R) 26.4(I)

If you extrapolate that out to final votes, Obama got around 852k from Dems, McCain got around 811k votes from Reps. But Obama crushed it with independents, beating McCain about 364k – 209k.

In other words, the big piece of Obama’s win in ’08 in Colorado came from winning independents huge.

In ’08, Democrats had about a 40k vote edge. This data suggests that we will reverse that and have a 40k edge ourselves….

That’s a net reversal of about 80k votes, 120k shy of Obama’s ’12 victory margin.

So it will come down to the independents.

It looks like there will be about 665k independents in Colorado this year. If they break 50-45 for Obama, as Rasmussen suggests, Romney will probably win by a tiny margin of around 10k votes. If independents in Colorado break in bigger numbers for Obama, he will win.

All these early vote results show is that this is probably going to be really close in Colorado, and depend on the independent vote which has been more pro-Obama in Colorado than in other swing states.

Chameleon on November 6, 2012 at 3:02 PM

That’s what I’m asking Norwegian. How’d McCain win on election day if early voting was D+2 (small) and Obama carried the state by 9%, when most folks early vote in Colorado? Did you have that many Republican crossovers last time? That’s the only explanation, right?

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:01 PM

We may be talking about two different things here. Historically Republicans turnout in larger numbers then Democrats on election day in states with early voting. That doesn’t mean McCain won amongst election day voters. Although Obama probably already had a 9+ point lead amongst early voters. And since only about 20% of Coloradans voted on election day the margin of victory likely didn’t change very much.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 3:05 PM

From 2008 HuffPo article:

Republicans led Democrats in early voting [in 2004] by a 42-34% margin, on their way to carrying Colorado for Bush with 51.7% to Kerry’s 47%

So far I’m not seeing any reason to be excited about this early vote breakdown.

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 3:10 PM

We may be talking about two different things here. Historically Republicans turnout in larger numbers then Democrats on election day in states with early voting. That doesn’t mean McCain won amongst election day voters. Although Obama probably already had a 9+ point lead amongst early voters. And since only about 20% of Coloradans voted on election day the margin of victory likely didn’t change very much.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 3:05 PM

OK, then based on that and the fact that early voting swung +3 to 4 total points in Romney’s direction, independents and/or crossovers will need to swing +5-6 in Romney’s direction also just to get back even 50-50 compared to 2008. I just don’t see your and Nords enthusiam for a 16 pt swing, -9 to +7 (53-46) with such a small party ID early vote swing this time (3.5 or so %). That’s all.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:10 PM

If it was D+2 last time and now it’s R+1.5, is a 3.5 pc swing enough?

levi on November 6, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Thanks to the indie voters, it will be.

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 2:28 PM

A bit of mixed news here really. If it’s a uniform swing of 3.5, then nationally that’s a D+3.5, and we could be in for a long tense night. Numbers would appear to pan out around where Romney’s leaked internals were last night. Hope that’s enough for the margin of fraud.

On the other hand, this is a good indication Romney is winning Colorado, and with CO PVI at Even, that’s a fairly good indicator of the national popular vote. If this translates to about 51-48 in CO and nationwide, I’d like to think we’re pretty much okay with 285 or 295.

Gingotts on November 6, 2012 at 3:11 PM

I just don’t see your and Nords enthusiam for a 16 pt swing, -9 to +7 (53-46) with such a small party ID early vote swing this time (3.5 or so %). That’s all.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:10 PM

That’s fine. A prediction is called a prediction for a reason.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 3:13 PM

Last year the Black Panthers had 2 thugs at the poll…now only one…I guess they had jobs lost too.

malkinmania on November 6, 2012 at 3:15 PM

That’s what I’m asking Norwegian. How’d McCain win on election day if early voting was D+2 (small) and Obama carried the state by 9%, when most folks early vote in Colorado? Did you have that many Republican crossovers last time? That’s the only explanation, right?

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:01 PM

If you adjust the 2008 early vote for Obama as follows:

Net 1 in 10 GOP cross-over votes to Obama
Obama carries independents by a 10 point margin (55-45)

That results in a Obama lead of 56%-44% in the early vote in 2008. Remember that nearly 80% off all votes cast.

Romney likely has a 3-4% lead in the early vote for 2012 (assuming even split in independents, so the lead could be wider), and will win Election Day voters by an even larger margin.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 3:17 PM

So far I’m not seeing any reason to be excited about this early vote breakdown.

I’m with you…People here don’t seem to be paying attention to the independent vote which is what Obama crushed in 2012.

My napkin calculations suggest Obama won about 72% of independents in CO in ’08. That is extrapolating the early voting totals to final results. It may have been less, given there may have been more GOP crossover.

My napkin calculations suggest that, given the new early voting numbers, Obama will have to win about 55% of independents to win Colorado this year.

Every poll I’ve seen has Obama up among independents in Colorado, sometimes by huge margins.

Chameleon on November 6, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Allright NotCoach and Norwegian, we’ll know soon. From y’alls keybaords to God’s ears.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Romney likely has a 3-4% lead in the early vote for 2012 (assuming even split in independents, so the lead could be wider), and will win Election Day voters by an even larger margin.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 3:17 PM

So even though Kerry outperformed Bush in CO on election day in 2004, you believe Romney outperforms Obama today?

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 3:21 PM

Eddie C, yes. Bush was in Obama’s position today as an unpopular incumbent. But Bush WON early voters, not the challenger. This go around Romney has won early voters already. I did the math even if the Indies vote D+6 as Ras suggested. It still puts Romney in a lead. Even if you assume that both parties get 7% crossover. Romney has to win election day voters against an unpopular incumbent. Even if he wins 51-49 for election day voters, he wins CO (Granted under my scenario).

nyclakerfan on November 6, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Would you rather be ahead or behind in turnout? I thought so.

If this is trend (as in Ohio) in the turnout model, all the MSM (read NBC) based polling models are wrong.

Tater Salad on November 6, 2012 at 3:35 PM

So even though Kerry outperformed Bush in CO on election day in 2004, you believe Romney outperforms Obama today?

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 3:21 PM

This is a good write-up on the history of early voting in Colorado and the state of the race.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/03/colorado-state-of-the-race-early-voting-and-polls-by-david-ramos/

Again, it’s worth repeating that Obama won independents in Colorado by just 9 points in 2008. That was almost identical to his margin nationally at 8 points per exit polls.

So there is not going to be a big discrepancy between margins among independents nationally vs. Colorado. If they are tied (worst case scenario) Romney is up 3.5% in the early vote.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Just saw a retweet on Michelle Malkin’s feed that ROmney is on pace to win Adams County, CO, which hasn’t gone red since ’84. Don’t know what data was used to make the prediction…

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Again, it’s worth repeating that Obama won independents in Colorado by just 9 points in 2008.

I hope you are right, and I saw that from your link….If Obama only won indies by 9 in Colorado in ’08, then we look like we’re in good shape.

But I can’t figure out how this could be true unless *huge* numbers of Colorado Republicans went for Obama last time around.

Chameleon on November 6, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Great find, thanks!

I see that article conflicts with the one I quoted earlier. It has O+8 in early voting in 2008, en route to a final margin of 0+8.6. This makes sense given that 70+% of votes are cast early in CO.

This means that if Ras is correct and I’s go D+6, we still win by 2%.

So it seems like Ras’ prediction of R+3 in CO might be close. I’m still holding out hope that CO INDs break for Romney or DEM crossover is larger than expected, either of which would break open an otherwise tight race.

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Just saw a retweet on Michelle Malkin’s feed that ROmney is on pace to win Adams County, CO, which hasn’t gone red since ’84. Don’t know what data was used to make the prediction…

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:37 PM

This county went 60-40 for Obama in 2008; while Kerry won by 4 point win in 2004.

This is in line with my 53-46 Romney win prediction. We are going to see a Romney win larger than Bush’s 51-48 win in 2004.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Finally, a comment counter for The Green Room.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 3:56 PM

These numbers are making my head spin… pass the Tylenol and that bottle of Jack please.

kcd on November 6, 2012 at 3:57 PM

Great find, thanks!

I see that article conflicts with the one I quoted earlier. It has O+8 in early voting in 2008, en route to a final margin of 0+8.6. This makes sense given that 70+% of votes are cast early in CO.
EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Ah O+8 early vote in 2008.

That makes more sense. No way there was D+2 of 75% of the total vote and then Obama won by 9% overall. Would have been a flood of pubs voting Obama in ’08.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:57 PM

This county went 60-40 for Obama in 2008
Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Awesome!

levi on November 6, 2012 at 4:00 PM

Chameleon on November 6, 2012 at 3:48 PM

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Trust me, we are in very good shape. Romney will win CO.

It’s worth noting that the RCP State Poll Average, Nate Silver and InTrade all predicted Obama would win Colorado. That should tell you everything you need to know about their prediction “skills” in other battleground states…

The D+4 and higher state poll turnout models were garbage, and it was demonstrably false for a long time looking at the Early Vote in Colorado.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 4:01 PM

So even though Kerry outperformed Bush in CO on election day in 2004, you believe Romney outperforms Obama today?

Are you sure about that? I saw the HuffPo link, but it sounds wrong. Never heard of Dems outperforming their early vote.

At any rate, Obama did NOT win election day in 2008, which seems a lot more relevant than 2004, especially given the size of his overall win.

Obama won the early vote by 9 percentage points in 2008, giving him a big enough cushion to win the state, despite narrowly losing the Election Day vote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/03/2012-early-voting-_n_2068881.html

So I’d be shocked if R doesn’t take CO by at least 3. 5-7 seems most likely.

TallDave on November 6, 2012 at 4:02 PM

No way there was D+2 of 75% of the total vote and then Obama won by 9% overall. Would have been a flood of pubs voting Obama in ’08.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 3:57 PM

yeah, that would have meant that Obama won, like what, all of the votes on election day? :)

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 4:03 PM

5-7 seems most likely.

TallDave on November 6, 2012 at 4:02 PM

You just sent a tingle up my leg.

If Romney wins CO by 5-7 we’re looking at 300+ EVs

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Getting pumped. I want a concession speech so badly I can taste it. I want a derisive, hate filled, cutting Obama without a gracious word to be said, with Mooch glaring in the background and Biden picking fights with the crowd and claiming himself a candidate for the 2016 Dem primary.

Perfect.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 4:08 PM

If Romney wins CO by 5-7 we’re looking at 300+ EVs

It’s certainly possible, but state votes can be a little schizo — no one would have expected O to take IN but lose MO.

Keep an eye on VA, imho.

TallDave on November 6, 2012 at 4:10 PM

Keep an eye on VA, imho.

TallDave on November 6, 2012 at 4:10 PM

Look, just let me enjoy my tingle, ok? :)

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 4:16 PM

FWIW, I’m watching Intrade. CO is getting heavy action back and forth.

GuyInL.A. on November 6, 2012 at 4:16 PM

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