Green Room

GOP wins EV turnout in CO

posted at 1:48 pm on November 6, 2012 by

That’s the report from the New York Times’ Jack Healy, based on a release this morning from the Secretary of State:

  • GOP: 688,503
  • Dem: 653,450
  • UAF (independents): 547,437

This morning, a false report from Ohio came from Gannett, but this one looks properly sourced.

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What were the numbers in 2008?

Capitalist Infidel on November 6, 2012 at 1:50 PM

ATOMIC BOMB! baby.

here trolly trolly trolly!

Skwor on November 6, 2012 at 1:51 PM

yay

hawkdriver on November 6, 2012 at 1:52 PM

What were the numbers in 2008?

Capitalist Infidel on November 6, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Dems by 2%. What’s striking is the 29.5% indies. I believe that number was closer to 24 or 25 in 2008.

Editor on November 6, 2012 at 1:52 PM

3%-5% Romney win in Colorado is what I’ve been predicting. These are excellent numbers for R&R so far…

CliffHanger on November 6, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Is that enough?

mrscullen on November 6, 2012 at 1:53 PM

I guess we can file that state away as won.

Strike one, Larry Sabato.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 1:53 PM

547,437 independents? I considered going this route when registering, but who wants to get mail and robocalls from BOTH parties?

Dead Hand Control on November 6, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Not only did Democrats win the early vote in 2008; but early vote turnout this year in terms of total votes is higher than in 2008. This suggests a huge election day advantage for the GOP, who traditionally win turnout on Election Day. Romney will win CO comfortably.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 1:57 PM

They win the Electoral Vote turnout?

Stop using “EV” to mean early voting. You aren’t on Twitter, you have the required characters.

Abby Adams on November 6, 2012 at 1:57 PM

If it was D+2 last time and now it’s R+1.5, is a 3.5 pc swing enough?

levi on November 6, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Start of the Romney Tsunami. Only a few hours to go.

nobar on November 6, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Excellent :)

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 1:59 PM

I heard about this a few days ago, that is why I’ve been fairly confident about Colorado.

WolvenOne on November 6, 2012 at 2:00 PM

I was one of those independents who voted early for Romney, let’s hope there were many more

deuce on November 6, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Colorado has been a pleasant surprise. I was worried about that state after 2010, but it looks like they’ve come back to their senses after the last 4 years.

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 2:01 PM

R+1.8!

Awesome. And since more Republicans show up on election day then Dems in states with early voting; TRIPLE DOG AWESOME!!

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 2:02 PM

If it was D+2 last time and now it’s R+1.5, is a 3.5 pc swing enough?

levi on November 6, 2012 at 1:57 PM

More than enough. These early votes are likely 80% of total votes cast as Colorado has the highest level of any state in the union with the exception of all-mail voting Oregon.

Romney has to lose independents by double digits to lose Colorado at this point. Not gonna happen, Colorado is in the bag.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 2:02 PM

This morning, a false report from Ohio came from Gannett, but this one looks properly sourced.

The Gannett story may have been pulled from their website, but do we really know it was actually a false report, or one that just wasn’t supposed to get out this morning?

Right Mover on November 6, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Obama won the early vote in CO by 9pts in 2008. Damn that’s a crater.

rgrovr on November 6, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 2:02 PM

What he said…

CliffHanger on November 6, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Nate Silver had CO going to Obama 80-20% over Romney..

LOLLERCOPTER!!!

rgrovr on November 6, 2012 at 2:06 PM

I guess we can file that state away as won.

Strike one, Larry Sabato.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 1:53 PM

He had two states wrong in 2004 (Florida and Wisconsin), if he has two states wrong this year (Colorado and Ohio) Romney wins.

vegconservative on November 6, 2012 at 2:06 PM

The votes don’t matter. Nate Silver already called it 80-20 for Obama. And he got 75 out of 50 correct in 2008!!!

jl on November 6, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Did Repubs win election day turnout in CO in 2008?

GuyInL.A. on November 6, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Nate Silver had CO going to Obama 80-20% over Romney..

LOLLERCOPTER!!!

rgrovr on November 6, 2012 at 2:06 PM

And he stands by The Model, damnit. If The Model is different from the vote totals, that just means voters are wrong.

thirtyandseven on November 6, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Also, some polls had O winning Indies by a few points in CO, anyone know how they usually go?

GuyInL.A. on November 6, 2012 at 2:11 PM

The Gannett story may have been pulled from their website, but do we really know it was actually a false report, or one that just wasn’t supposed to get out this morning?

Right Mover on November 6, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Yes, unfortunately we do. Those numbers had Romney winning Cuyahoga County. That’s impossible. Like literally impossible. Obama carried Cuyahoga by nearly 40 points last time around. Romney could win every state and probably still lose Cuyahoga.

LukeinNE on November 6, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Obama won the early vote in CO by 9pts in 2008. Damn that’s a crater.

rgrovr on November 6, 2012 at 2:03 PM

He also won the state by that much in the total counts. Not a good sign for him.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 2:13 PM

I love it when Boulder weeps.

STL_Vet on November 6, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Anybody know if Romney’s winning independents in Colorado? I was all happy and then I looked up the latest poll I could find and it had Obama up huge among independents in Colorado. It was the PPP poll; no idea how reliable it is. Plus I suspect everything is trending back to Obama post-Sandy, so the early advantage could be neutralized; somebody please talk me out of my pessimism!

Courtesybears on November 6, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Did Repubs win election day turnout in CO in 2008?

GuyInL.A. on November 6, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Traditionally Yes and by a large margin.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 2:17 PM

This looks hopeful, but just to be safe, we better flood the polls in Colorado with another 200,000 Romney voters.

JimLennon on November 6, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Hurricane Romney has reached landfall…Jackpot, 21!!, Royal Flush, 3 Cherries, Seven come Eleven, Double 00, On the River…baby needs a new pair of shoes…

right2bright on November 6, 2012 at 2:18 PM

By the way, if Romney actually loses tonight, after all the enthusiasm I’ve seen on this board today, the trolls tonight will be positively unbearable. Get out and vote, people!

JimLennon on November 6, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Uh Oh……

portlandon on November 6, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Uh Oh……

portlandon on November 6, 2012 at 2:21 PM

That was obvious from his first post, wasn’t it?

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 2:23 PM

EV?

I thought you meant Electoral Votes and that didn’t make sense since, well, we won’t know that til tonight.

powerpro on November 6, 2012 at 2:25 PM

74.5% of total votes for Colorado in 2008 were early votes. It was 37.7% Dem and 35.9% Rep for an +1.8D.

So this year there appears to be a 10% increase in the amount of early votes in Colorado and a change from +1.8D to +1.9R. But if you look at it from Independents as well, the % of Registered Dems that early voted is down 3.2%!!!

Obama won Colorado by 214,992 votes. About 97k more Independents early voted this year, about 77k more Republicans voted, and about 11k less Dems early voted. Looking good for Romney/

nextgen_repub on November 6, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Anybody know if Romney’s winning independents in Colorado?

Courtesybears on November 6, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Colorado matched exit polls in 2008 in terms of Obama’s lead with independents. I suspect it will closely mirror the national average again. If Romney wins independents with double digits nationally, he will win independents with double digits in Colorado.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 2:26 PM

This isn’t as great as some are making it out to be.

Most polls show Obama up with independents in Colorado….

For example, Rasmussen (who has Romney ahead by 3): “The president leads 50% to 44% among voters in the state not affiliated with either of the major political parties.”

PPP has Obama up 6 with a huge lead among independents (25 points) in their poll that has a D-R-I breakdown of 37-36-26.

The polls from Colorado aren’t like polls from elsewhere where the Dems are hugely oversampled.

Chameleon on November 6, 2012 at 2:26 PM

If it was D+2 last time and now it’s R+1.5, is a 3.5 pc swing enough?

levi on November 6, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Thanks to the indie voters, it will be.

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Anybody know if Romney’s winning independents in Colorado? I was all happy and then I looked up the latest poll I could find and it had Obama up huge among independents in Colorado. It was the PPP poll; no idea how reliable it is. Plus I suspect everything is trending back to Obama post-Sandy, so the early advantage could be neutralized; somebody please talk me out of my pessimism!

Courtesybears on November 6, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Courtesybears – I can tell you this – about a half hour ago, I spoke with a long-time friend who’s an Independent, and has also been a true undecided voter for the entire campaign. Me, my husband and our friend often spend many hours discussing politics. Even as of yesterday, he said he wasn’t voting. However, I’m VERY proud to say, he went and voted today for Mitt Romney! He said he made his final decision this morning. Further, you need to know that our friend is NOT good with crowds or long lines. Yet, he stood in line for 45 minutes today, in the middle of a large crowd, in order to vote. I’m telling you – that is a big deal. When he will do something like that, it really means something. And I have a feeling that many indies are doing the same thing today. And typically, undecided voters make their final decision at the last moment – in many cases, once they are in the voting booth. Be encouraged!! I am for sure!!

littlekittie on November 6, 2012 at 2:31 PM

In 2008, Obama narrowly edged McCain for early ballots yet still won the state by 8.6 percentage points.

1,216,793 53.5% – 1,020,135 44.9%

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 2:31 PM

74.5% of total votes for Colorado in 2008 were early votes. It was 37.7% Dem and 35.9% Rep for an +1.8D.

nextgen_repub on November 6, 2012 at 2:26 PM

If Obama won early votes by less than 2% in ’08 but won the state by nine, then R+1.5% doesn’t sounds very good right now.

Then again, if 74.5% of the total votes were Obama +2 in ’08 there is no way he won overall by 9%.

Somethings off.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Is there any examples of good Dem turnout? I’m not counting the fraud.

Oil Can on November 6, 2012 at 2:33 PM

EddieC on November 6, 2012 at 2:31 PM

levi on November 6, 2012 at 2:31 PM

You guys are forgetting independents. What gave Obama that big a win in Colorado was his advantage among independents. He no longer has that advantage.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 2:34 PM

So 2012 CO: GOP 688,503; Dem 653,450; Ind/Other 547,347. (Total 1,889,300 votes)

In 2008 CO: GOP 611,837; Dem 642,514; Ind/Other 449,930 (Total 1,704,280 votes) 72+% of vote in CO in 2008 was early voting!

That is a swing of 65,720 votes to the GOP, plus an increase of 97,417 Ind/Other votes. Now, Obama won CO in 2008 by around 215,000 votes. 2,362,160 total votes were cast. McCain/GOP won election day voting in 2008, though independents swung to Obama.

If this report is true, Romney has a great start in the state where he decisively won the first debate (as opposed to 2008, where Obama and the Dems held their convention). If Romney can win election day voting this would be a hard one to lose even if Ind/Other’s tilted Obama (as PPP and other dem polling claims) and of course impossible to lose if Ind/Others tilt Romney this year, as I think they will.

DryHeat on November 6, 2012 at 2:35 PM

The polls from Colorado aren’t like polls from elsewhere where the Dems are hugely oversampled.

Chameleon on November 6, 2012 at 2:26 PM

There is a big difference between “polls” pre election, and polls from the election day…nice try, but it’s apparent that Romney has taken an early substantial lead, especially considering past history.

But don’t worry, you were told “Don’t panic”…

right2bright on November 6, 2012 at 2:36 PM

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