Green Room

GOP wins EV turnout in CO

posted at 1:48 pm on November 6, 2012 by

That’s the report from the New York Times’ Jack Healy, based on a release this morning from the Secretary of State:

  • GOP: 688,503
  • Dem: 653,450
  • UAF (independents): 547,437

This morning, a false report from Ohio came from Gannett, but this one looks properly sourced.

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FWIW, I’m watching Intrade. CO is getting heavy action back and forth.

GuyInL.A. on November 6, 2012 at 4:16 PM

The numbers there are bound to keep swinging and swinging, as the bettors are desperately trying to recoup whatever money they can.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Nate Silver had CO going to Obama 80-20% over Romney..

LOLLERCOPTER!!!

rgrovr on November 6, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Silver also awards virginia and Florida to BO (although Florida is very close in his model)

I think the vets and active military guys will not like the Benghazi saga they see and will keep both for Romney.

KW64 on November 6, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Very interesting, D-34.5/R-36.4/I-28.9; This appears to be a little different than the D+6 and D+11 polls. As it stands now this is a R-+1.

DDay on November 6, 2012 at 4:39 PM

Silver also awards virginia and Florida to BO (although Florida is very close in his model)

I think the vets and active military guys will not like the Benghazi saga they see and will keep both for Romney.

KW64 on November 6, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Early numbers from FL (Pasco County) suggest a significant turnout advantage (including early votes) for Republicans at R+5 over their

http://www.pascovotes.com/turnout.asp

And it’s not a tiny county, it has over 300,000 registered voters.

FL won’t be close.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Should say “over their registration advantage”.

In ohter words;

This county has a registration composition of 38% R and 34% D; Rs are currently making up 43% of the total vote (D still at 34%).

Huge turnout advantage for Republicans.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Nate Silver had CO going to Obama 80-20% over Romney..

LOLLERCOPTER!!!

rgrovr on November 6, 2012 at 2:06 PM

*STRAPS ON LOLLERSKATES*

tdpwells on November 6, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Very interesting, D-34.5/R-36.4/I-28.9; This appears to be a little different than the D+6 and D+11 polls. As it stands now this is a R-+1.

DDay on November 6, 2012 at 4:39 PM

Republicans always win the Election Day vote here in Colorado; expect that to be turnout figure to be R+2 or higher when all is done.

This is an important point: Colorado is the ONLY state in the union with an even PVI of Zero (Cook Partisan Voting Index).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

Meaning that the result in CO is likely a identical match of the national popular vote.

Think about that for a second…

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Norwegian, I’m in Colorado too and I think we are definitely going red this year. Hope you’re right about what it indicates for the country. Thank goodness polls in the east close shortly. I can’t take this much longer.

COgirl on November 6, 2012 at 5:17 PM

This is an important point: Colorado is the ONLY state in the union with an even PVI of Zero (Cook Partisan Voting Index).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

Meaning that the result in CO is likely a identical match of the national popular vote.

Think about that for a second…

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Exactly! Even if it’s “only” a 51-48 win CO, we’re talking 51-48 nationwide. And what too few in the media seem to remember these days: Ohio is R+1. 51-48 in CO translates to 52-47 there. Battle lines then drawn in IA, WI, PA, NH and Romney’s number appears to be 281-305.

Gingotts on November 6, 2012 at 5:18 PM


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