Green Room

First round of exit polls show economy big concern

posted at 5:43 pm on November 6, 2012 by

What — not the dancing vaginas?  According to the first round of very incomplete exit polling, the economy drove the vote for 60% of respondents:

The survey of voters as they leave polling places Tuesday shows 6 in 10 voters say the economy is the top issue facing the nation, with unemployment and rising prices hitting voters hard.

And they’re not happy about it, either:

About 4 in 10 say they think the nation’s economy is on the mend, but more say that things are getting worse or are bad and stagnating.

The big kicker?  Only 25% of respondents think they’re better off than four years ago.

REMINDER: Please read this post in order to understand what exit polls tell us, and what they can’t tell us.

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Drudge headline is now saying Florida and NC to Romney.

Virginia Colorado and Iowa tossups.

OH, NV, NH, MI, PA to Obama.

Of course these exit polls said Kerry was going to win, so if they’re 4 points off again then this is great news.

But if these results stick, Romney will have to win all the tossups and take OH or PA away.

Chameleon on November 6, 2012 at 5:47 PM

and 1/2 are still blaming w…unstinkingbelievable

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Exit polls are garbage, but some of the tidbits are pretty tempting. :-)

Punchenko on November 6, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Chameleon on November 6, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Tight race in the exit polls? Romney landslide. I should have bought some booze so I can run around the neighborhood making an obnoxious fool of myself.

and 1/2 are still blaming w…unstinkingbelievable

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Exit polling data always skews heavily liberal.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 5:56 PM

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 5:56 PM

Sorry, I’m not as confidant as you. Talk some sense into me. fyi-I’m not watching the TV until I see some exit poll data.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 5:58 PM

Even if Drudge’s link were actual final voting results, Zero would still be 5 EV shy of 270 and Mitt 25 shy with 28 EV still undecided.

Given the exit polls skewing heavy towards dems, I like these odds!

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Billy Cunningham on Hannity: Huge lines in Republican counties – Hamilton, etc. Looking at something like an 80% turnout, far exceeding the Bush 2004 vote! Cunningham says for voters to “hold the line.” He thinks Romney will win Ohio by 5 pts! He’s lived in Ohio all his life and has never seen anything like this!

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 5:53 PM

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 6:00 PM

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 5:56 PM

still boggles the mind

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Obama ALWAYS over performs in exit polls!

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Exit polls are garbage. Keep calm and finish him.

Revenant on November 6, 2012 at 6:00 PM

OH, NV, NH, MI, PA to Obama.

Of course these exit polls said Kerry was going to win, so if they’re 4 points off again then this is great news.

But if these results stick, Romney will have to win all the tossups and take OH or PA away.

Chameleon on November 6, 2012 at 5:47 PM

That’s 270 right there on the nose, assuming that they’ve given WI and MN to O as well. If that’s how this ends, then Obama will win re-election 270-268.

Crap.

JimLennon on November 6, 2012 at 6:01 PM

If what Drudge says is true we are toast, we no longer have an electorate that can support a free republic.

neuquenguy on November 6, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Sorry, I’m not as confidant as you. Talk some sense into me. fyi-I’m not watching the TV until I see some exit poll data.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 5:58 PM

Just wait for actual returns starting at 7 PM, EST. Exit polls will drive you nuts. Or watch Ed blog-casting with Hugh Hewitt. He said he was starting at 6.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 6:02 PM

For a trip down memory lane; here were the exit polls in 2004 (Actual election result in paranthesis)

NC Tossup (Bush +12)
NM Kerry +5 (Bush +1)
FL Kerry +5 (Bush +5)
OH Kerry +5 (Bush +2)
PA Kerry +19 (Kerry +2)

Average overstating of Democratic vote: 10+ points

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Ignore the exit polls. They are proven liberal garbage.

forest on November 6, 2012 at 6:03 PM

I wish Drudge hadn’t reported them, so polls look terrible for us.

blue13326 on November 6, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Oh, and this “exit polls will skew D” is nothing new just drummed up today:
https://www.google.com/search?q=exit+poll+skew&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

KEEP
CALM
AND
FINISH
HIM!

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 6:03 PM

For a trip down memory lane; here were the exit polls in 2004 (Actual election result in paranthesis)

NC Tossup (Bush +12)
NM Kerry +5 (Bush +1)
FL Kerry +5 (Bush +5)
OH Kerry +5 (Bush +2)
PA Kerry +19 (Kerry +2)

Average overstating of Democratic vote: 10+ points

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Link?

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Relax people! With the massive numbers of Republicans who are STILL turning out in Ohio, there’s no way Obama will win it.

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 6:05 PM

@NotCoach—

I think I will listen to Ed and read a book until the actual exit polls start trickling out.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Remember the Walker recall exit polls? Off by 7%.

forest on November 6, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Exit polling released only expressing the Obama bums. The working Republicans who have left work an hour ago, and heading to the polls will balance them out.

CHILL.

portlandon on November 6, 2012 at 6:08 PM

If what Drudge says is true we are toast, we no longer have an electorate that can support a free republic.

neuquenguy on November 6, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Drudge just clarified that the polls were, in fact, a “Boom for O,” then simultaneously moved Ohio into the “exit poll tossup” column.

So, yeah.

HitNRun on November 6, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Drudge’s headline just moved Ohio from Obama to tossup.

JimLennon on November 6, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking.

JimLennon on November 6, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Everything I’ve heard today confirms that turnout in Republican counties is massive; turnout in Democrat counties is down . . .

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 6:11 PM

I wish Drudge hadn’t reported them, so polls look terrible for us.

Agreed.

MisterPundit on November 6, 2012 at 6:12 PM

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 6:04 PM

See Sean Davis on Twitter

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 6:13 PM

I’m NOT worried. Any state reported as tossup right now will go for Mitt.

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Criminy, were none of you people politically aware in 2004? Exit. Polls. Are. Garbage. Ask President Kerry; he’s an expert on the subject. And don’t go “but they know they’re garbage and correct for that”–you can’t correct for it! As for why Drudge posts them: because exit polls = hits and hits = $$$.

It’s not rocket surgery people.

Fabozz on November 6, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Drudge’s headline just moved Ohio from Obama to tossup.

JimLennon on November 6, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Any tossup state is a Romney win. Any Romney win state is a Romney landslide state/

See thread on CO. Romney is winning the state, yet exits has it as tossup.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 6:15 PM

LOL. Drudge just changed it to “Exit Polls Tight.” That was a short boom.

Butler on November 6, 2012 at 6:15 PM

LOL. Drudge just changed it to “Exit Polls Tight.” That was a short boom.

Butler on November 6, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Bill Cunningham reported that massive numbers of voters were in line in key Republican counties like Hamilton. He’s never seen anything like it and believes Republican turnout in Ohio will exceed Bush 2004.

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 6:18 PM

It’s often forgotten since Obama won, but exit polls in 2008 overstated Obama support by 15+% in some states.

Faulty Exit Polls were not just a 2000 or 2004 phenomenon. And it has not gotten better, look at Wisconsin Recall.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Now things don’t look do bad if OH is toss-up, it still makes no sense for Drudge to report them.

blue13326 on November 6, 2012 at 6:21 PM

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 6:04 PM

See Sean Davis on Twitter

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Thx but was talking about where the solid data on that statement actually is. . .

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 6:21 PM

And the fact that Drudge has this urgent, constantly changing, traffic ho exit polling information up is why I won’t even look at that site tonight. Hot Air keeps me warm and happy with the information I need. (ok, will check out a few other places) But I am in agreement with some of the previous posters, exit polls mean nothing. When Virginia, followed by North Carolina and Ohio, closes, we will begin to witness the larger picture take shape. There is no reason to have any concern at this point.

Mouse1 on November 6, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Now things don’t look do bad if OH is toss-up, it still makes no sense for Drudge to report them.

Did you visit his site? Did you see an ad there? Then it makes sense for Drudge to report them.

Fabozz on November 6, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Drudge headline is now saying Florida and NC to Romney.

Virginia Colorado and Iowa tossups.

OH, NV, NH, MI, PA to Obama.

Of course these exit polls said Kerry was going to win, so if they’re 4 points off again then this is great news.

But if these results stick, Romney will have to win all the tossups and take OH or PA away.

Chameleon on November 6, 2012 at 5:47 PM

HUGE revision. Drudge now has OH as tossup. Must have been a typing mistake at first. Anyway, exit polls are worthless.

anotherJoe on November 6, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Fabozz: that probably was the rationale for many news sites reporting garbage, that are now themselves garbage…

blue13326 on November 6, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Fabozz: that probably was the rationale for many news sites reporting garbage, that are now themselves garbage…

In addition, Drudge has right from the beginning of his career said that he doesn’t believe in hiding information from the public as if they weren’t capable of handling the truth. If he gets data, he publishes it. If people want to misconstrue or misuse the information, that’s their responsibility, not his.

Fabozz on November 6, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Except that Drudge got the data wrong: wrongly reporting that Ohio was in Obama’s column and then a toss-up completely changes things. That’s why journalists should take a moment to check for accuracy, before trying to be the first to report garbage so people can view their ads.

blue13326 on November 6, 2012 at 6:44 PM

If there is one thing I don’t understand about this Drudge exit poll thing – why is Wisconsin not even mentioned? Certainly it’s considered more in play than MI and arguably NV and PA…

Gingotts on November 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Filed under “water is wet”.

MelonCollie on November 6, 2012 at 7:17 PM