Bellwether precincts and counties to watch in VA Update: Bellwether goes O, R improving in NoVa
posted at 7:43 pm on November 6, 2012 by Mary Katharine Ham
Tim Carney writes up a prescient precinct in Northern Virginia:
Alongside your suburban soccer moms, you’ve got your hunters with pickup trucks and immigrant families. All in all, the neighborhood is fairly diverse. The elementary school population is half white, and plenty of black, immigrant, Arab, Asian, and hispanic voters showed up at the elementary school polling place.
And, for the past decade at least, as goes Fairfax Villa so goes Virginia. The precinct has picked the winner in all of the biggest statewide races, and has voted within a percentage point and a half in the three biggest.
In 2004, John Kerry won Fairfax County, but lost Virginia 54-46. To be precise, Bush got 53.7% in Virginia. He got 52.5% in Fairfax Villa.
In 2008, Virginia voted 52.6% for Obama, and Fairfax Villa voted 53.0% for Obama.
A year later, in the governor election, the precinct and the state swung back to Republicans, big time. Virginia voted 58.6% for Bob McDonnell, and Fairfax Villa voted 60.1% for McDonnell.
Jim Geraghty’s hot counties to watch. Like Seacrest’s Top 40 only nerdier:
VIRGINIA –
Prince William County (MAJOR BELLWETHER)
2004: Bush 53–47 2008: Obama 58-42
Obama 93,386 to McCain 67,589
Population: 402,002 Largest community: Dale City
Henrico County
Obama 56-44
Obama 86,262 to McCain 67,340
Loudoun County
Obama 54-46
Obama 74,607 to McCain 63,328
Winchester (independent city, not part of any county, small but useful)
Obama 52-47
Obama 5,268 to McCain 4,725
Update: Fun with drill-down infographics of Virginia!
Update: Conflicting tweets to mess with your emotions:
Villa is the magic precinct — within 1.5% of Va’s statewide vote in all the major elections since 2012. Just went 54% Obama.
— Timothy P Carney (@TPCarney) November 7, 2012
Romney steadily improving in NoVa. This was closer than it should’ve been, but think he’ll win.
— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) November 7, 2012
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Halifax and the other southern and western counties are encouraging right now. Big swings from 2008. Let’s hope Obama drops off by at least 4% in the populous DC influenced counties.
forest on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM
Romney up SEVENTEEN in PW county.
Early early, but still…
*clink
Washington Nearsider on November 6, 2012 at 8:45 PM