Green Room

Baselines for early voting in Ohio

posted at 9:00 am on November 6, 2012 by

Obama will start the day with a smaller lead than he had in 2008. The target for Ohio Republicans via Jay Cost:

And here’s David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report looking at all Ohio counties, not just the “strong” ones:

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By my calc, in ’08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama’s OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain

Is McCain running again?

pain train on November 6, 2012 at 9:08 AM

By my calc, in ’08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama’s OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain

Looks like we’ve found out why the media think Obama will win today. They still think he’s running against McCain.

jwolf on November 6, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Arrgh! Pain Train got me!

jwolf on November 6, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Is McCain running again?

pain train on November 6, 2012 at 9:08 AM

No, but the counties he won in 2008 still exist.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Good news. Obama didn’t win by much in 2008, this could be the difference.

NoDonkey on November 6, 2012 at 9:14 AM

That puts Obama down 127K assuming all registered voters vote by party. Obama won Ohio by 260K in 2008. Ohio only needs to make up 133K today with a republican voting edge of 1.7 to 1.

I still think Ohio is a Romney/Ryan state.

Turtle317 on November 6, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Nothing says #WINNING when you have to dive so deep in the data to find something “close” to being even (based on those numbers, Dems still have the lead…just less than 2008, I wonder what they would be if it was compared to 2004 or 2000

Obama is playing basketball.

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Is McCain running again?

pain train on November 6, 2012 at 9:08 AM

No he’s saying that’s the performance today against those same McCain held counties.

rgrovr on November 6, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Once again..you’ve proven you aren’t very smart.

HumpBot Salvation on November 6, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Allah, or anyone that knows; how many votes did McCain net on Election Day? We know he closed the gap somewhat. I am curious to figure if Romney can pull out of a nearly 200k vote hole today. I expect Romney will receive more votes today than McCain did on Election Day. But 200k is a tall order.

h a p f a t on November 6, 2012 at 9:20 AM

That puts Obama down 127K assuming all registered voters vote by party. Obama won Ohio by 260K in 2008. Ohio only needs to make up 133K today with a republican voting edge of 1.7 to 1.

I still think Ohio is a Romney/Ryan state.

Turtle317 on November 6, 2012 at 9:15 AM

I can’t fathom a scenario where Obama does not bleed votes to Romney. Ex-Obama voters should be 6-8% of his electorate while Romney may have a 1% max defection rate from old-McCain voters.

No way all registered Dems voting vote for Obama 100%.

rgrovr on November 6, 2012 at 9:20 AM

The only problem with that thinking is that all Dems went for Obama. They aren’t.

ConDem on November 6, 2012 at 9:21 AM

That puts Obama down 127K assuming all registered voters vote by party. Obama won Ohio by 260K in 2008. Ohio only needs to make up 133K today with a republican voting edge of 1.7 to 1.

I still think Ohio is a Romney/Ryan state.

Turtle317 on November 6, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Less if some republicans voted for Obama in 08 or some Dems voted early for Romney in 2012, right?

neuquenguy on November 6, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Chaos at some of the polling stations in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) according to some of my co-workers.

Unfortunately I cast my vote across the river in KY, so I can’t help over here.

Spiders from Mars on November 6, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Realistically, what do you guys think the rate of Democrats voting against President Obama will be? In 2008 CNN exit polls had it at 10% of Democrats voting for McCain.

Predictions?

DeathtotheSwiss on November 6, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Nothing says #WINNING when you have to dive so deep in the data to find something “close” to being even (based on those numbers, Dems still have the lead…just less than 2008, I wonder what they would be if it was compared to 2004 or 2000

Obama is playing basketball.

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 AM

When the democrats edge in early vote is reduced from 323,000 votes to 196,000 votes that is a loss of 127,000 in the early vote alone and that is assuming all democrats voted for Obama this time… Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 260,000 votes so thus far he has lost 127,000 votes in the early vote alone… This means that Obama is going to lose Ohio when all the votes are counted…

mnjg on November 6, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Not in this calculation is that in the Dem and Rep counties, the mix is going to be more Republican than in ’08 as well.

For instance, in Cuyahoga Co. (Cleveland), the early votes have gone from a 41% Dem advantage, to a 32% Dem advantage. In that county alone, it could net an additional 20,000+ votes for Romney vs. 2008.

And that doesn’t take into account a swing in the independent vote. If, as the polls suggest, independents are breaking for Romney, it could swing thousands of additional votes outside of the D’s & R’s.

Vyceloch on November 6, 2012 at 9:50 AM

mnjg on November 6, 2012 at 9:41 AM

I’d also say that the Democrats had a strong early vote push this election to try and staunch the bleeding over to Romney. But I think you will see that the only thing this did was pull forward the votes and they will come up short today.

dominigan on November 6, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Obama is playing basketball.

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 AM

…which is actually better than him playing president for the past four years, even if he has problems nailing that 3-point shot from time to time.

jon1979 on November 6, 2012 at 10:09 AM

CNN predicted that Independents were going for Romney 59/37, assuming that the “undecides” all go to Obama or Roseanne and assuming that they show up at 30% as they did in 2008, then Republicans only need to hit the polls at 32.3% to capture half of the vote right off the bat. If Rasmussen is right about turnout, however…Democrats are doomed.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 6, 2012 at 10:13 AM

And by “predicted” I of course mean, “accurately polled”.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 6, 2012 at 10:14 AM

So is it true what I’m hearing that ties tend to go to the challenger? That would really make my day if it were.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 6, 2012 at 10:17 AM

fyi, per many of the polls, registered Dems plan to vote approx. 90% Obama, 5% Romney, 5%other/undecided. However, same polls have the opposite: Repubs voting 90%-93% Romney, 3-4%Obama, 3-4%other/undecided. So it is roughly a wash.

The key is independents. We’re in good shape if they come through at 60% Romney.

G. Charles on November 6, 2012 at 12:36 PM