Green Room

WaPo/ABC tracking poll: Obama by three …

posted at 5:39 pm on November 5, 2012 by

… but there’s more to the story, or rather I should say less.  The WaPo/ABC has Barack Obama leading 50/47, but the partisan split in the sample is a D+6 at 35/29/32.  That would be the lowest Republican turnout for a presidential election in long memory, while Democrats kept their 2010 midterm performance pace.  I’d call that highly unlikely; the turnout tomorrow could possibly be 35% Democrat, but it’s likely to also be 35% Republican, just as it was two years ago.

The internals of this poll shows Romney leading among independents 48/46.  An incumbent President at 46% among independents on the final day before the election is typically called “lame duck.”

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