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WaPo/ABC tracking poll: Obama by three …

posted at 5:39 pm on November 5, 2012 by

… but there’s more to the story, or rather I should say less.  The WaPo/ABC has Barack Obama leading 50/47, but the partisan split in the sample is a D+6 at 35/29/32.  That would be the lowest Republican turnout for a presidential election in long memory, while Democrats kept their 2010 midterm performance pace.  I’d call that highly unlikely; the turnout tomorrow could possibly be 35% Democrat, but it’s likely to also be 35% Republican, just as it was two years ago.

The internals of this poll shows Romney leading among independents 48/46.  An incumbent President at 46% among independents on the final day before the election is typically called “lame duck.”

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Ed,

Will you agree that if O wins tomorrow you’ll quit doing this sort of “partisan breakdown” analysis?

red_herring on November 5, 2012 at 5:45 PM

An incumbent President at 46% among independents on the final day before the election is typically called “lame duck.”

We call them “One Term Presidents” or “Unemployed”.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Via numbersmuncher:

WaPo/ABC poll has Obama up 3, 50-47. Poll moved from D+4 yesterday to D+6 today — 2% more Dems = 2% jump for O. BTW, that’s almost 2008…

Not. Gonna. Happen.

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Of all the tracking polls, this one is the most laughable.

D+6? Not gonna happen
Republicans just 29% of electorate? Riiiiight

It also appear to be polling more left-leaning independents. In 4 other nationwide surveys today, Romney has led independents with double digits; from 12 to 24 points. In this one? Just 2 points.

Pure garbage.

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 5:58 PM

I love polls. I wave at them as they go trundling by, trying their durndest to depress Conservative voters, as was ever their true intent.

squint on November 5, 2012 at 6:05 PM

up there with cnn’s poll

crock

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:05 PM

hahahahahaha…the kook-fringe-left media.

Jaibones on November 5, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Independents would pretty much have to be going for Romney by +20 for this to work…or Democrats voting for Romney in significant numbers which I doubt.

Although, maybe we will see some Romney Democrats tomorrow.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Push poll. Only intended to push dems to the polls instead of them believing it’s hopeless and staying home.

Youngs98 on November 5, 2012 at 6:13 PM

The internals of this poll shows Romney leading among independents 48/46.

Where do you see that? The crosstabs i see show Romney leading independents 51-44.

clearbluesky on November 5, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Never mind, was looking at the wrong one.

clearbluesky on November 5, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Lame clusterfark.

hillsoftx on November 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Dey jus be tryin to keep Gumbo off the ledge . . .

BigAlSouth on November 5, 2012 at 6:54 PM

35/29/32?

That doesn’t add up to 100. What are the other 4? Lizard People?

dforston on November 5, 2012 at 7:04 PM

CNN had D+11. Other polls are including some registered voters with likely voters. And yet Obama is below 50% and tied or a point ahead. It’s propaganda. These polls are feeling cooked. I hate saying that, because I’m usually the last to deny the polls, but this is absurd.

TheDriver on November 5, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Ed,

Will you agree that if O wins tomorrow you’ll quit doing this sort of “partisan breakdown” analysis?

red_herring

Why would he agree to stop making valid observations? Obama may win, but it won’t be because republican turnout was 29%. That’s just not going to happen.

xblade on November 5, 2012 at 7:35 PM

CNN had D+11. Other polls are including some registered voters with likely voters. And yet Obama is below 50% and tied or a point ahead. It’s propaganda. These polls are feeling cooked. I hate saying that, because I’m usually the last to deny the polls, but this is absurd.
TheDriver on November 5, 2012 at 7:21 PM

It really does seem this way. It’s not even like they’re just making insane and idiotic assumptions up front.

It’s more like they’re doing a poll, looking at the numbers, and THEN saying: “Hmmm, let’s see now, exactly how high will we have to screw up the turnout to put Obama in the lead this time?”

logis on November 5, 2012 at 7:43 PM

It really does seem this way. It’s not even like they’re just making insane and idiotic assumptions up front.

It’s more like they’re doing a poll, looking at the numbers, and THEN saying: “Hmmm, let’s see now, exactly how high will we have to screw up the turnout to put Obama in the lead this time?”

logis on November 5, 2012 at 7:43 PM

..you think the polls are bad, check out The FN All Stars — all Eeyore all the time except for Stephen Hayes — in an attempt to amp their ratings.

The War Planner on November 5, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Huh? What’s wrong with “partisan breakdown analysis?”

Pretty important when you’re looking at a poll, in my opinion. Kinda tells you a lot about the validity of the poll, how much trust you should place in the poll.

RedCrow on November 5, 2012 at 7:57 PM

xblade on November 5, 2012 at 7:35 PM

I suppose there’s a chance that O will win and the polls will have been way off. More likely though is that if he wins the polls will have been close. For the past 6 months Ed has more or less said to ignore such polls based on the demographic breakdown. As the pollsters have argued, that’s not a great way to analyze polls (partisan breakdown is fluid, exit poll measures of affiliation are different , etc.) Ed has basically said that he thinks such explanations are bunk.We’ll see who’s right tomorrow.

red_herring on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Huh? What’s wrong with “partisan breakdown analysis?”
Pretty important when you’re looking at a poll, in my opinion. Kinda tells you a lot about the validity of the poll, how much trust you should place in the poll.
RedCrow on November 5, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I guess we’ll see tomorrow whether there’s a problem with it or not. I think you would agree that if the polls hold up, it will be more or less invalidated.

red_herring on November 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

I guess we’ll see tomorrow whether there’s a problem with it or not. I think you would agree that if the polls hold up, it will be more or less invalidated.

red_herring on November 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

And when the one loses I expect you to come back on this thread and publicly admit you were oh so wrong. (and we will allow 24 hours of delay for you to stop crying)

airmonkey on November 5, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Stephanopoulos on ABC news tonite said that this swing in Obama’s favor was the great economic news last week. Job creation and all the other Dem talking points.He was pleased with this news.

RickinNH on November 5, 2012 at 8:13 PM

I guess we’ll see tomorrow whether there’s a problem with it or not. I think you would agree that if the polls hold up, it will be more or less invalidated.

red_herring on November 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Um…My point is that when CNN puts out a poll that says it’s a tie, and their sample is D+11, I think one should be fairly skeptical of the value of the poll.

Also, with the thousands of polls that have been taken in this cycle, I think at least 70% of them have had suspect weighting.

But, I’ll agree with you on one point–we’ll find out tomorrow.

RedCrow on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

And when the one loses I expect you to come back on this thread and publicly admit you were oh so wrong. (and we will allow 24 hours of delay for you to stop crying)
airmonkey on November 5, 2012 at 8:12 PM

That I promise to do.

red_herring on November 5, 2012 at 8:19 PM

An incumbent President at 46% among independents on the final day before the election is typically called “lame duck.”

We call them “One Term Presidents” or “Unemployed”.

or Richard the lame.

bayview on November 5, 2012 at 8:32 PM

If party affiliation really is fluid, you would think you’d see at least a few outliers with large R+ advantages. I’ve seen none.

jdp629 on November 5, 2012 at 8:37 PM

One other thought: Aren’t the Rasmussen and Gallup party affiliation polls done the same way (only on a much broader scale) as these polls? I.e., they just phone people and ask them their party affiliation? If so, why are those R+ samples, but none of the tracking polls get R+ samples?

jdp629 on November 5, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Their final push of “Obama is going to win” psychological warfare trying to depress us with stupid and laughable polls… As usual they are delusional… Tomorrow we are going to win big…

Romney 52%, Obama 47%…

Romney wins 290+ Electoral Votes…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 PM

If party affiliation really is fluid, you would think you’d see at least a few outliers with large R+ advantages. I’ve seen none.

jdp629 on November 5, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Because more democrats answer the phone then Republicans or because pollster calls more democrat states and democrat counties then Republican states and Republican counties… Rasmussen and Gallup did a combined 15,000 voters party affiliation last month and they found out that Republicans have 3 to 6 points party ID advantage over democrats…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 PM

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Over the past couple of months, I’ve gotten over 100 calls from numbers I don’t know (including around twenty calls from one number, in particular).

I don’t answer calls from numbers I don’t know. (Leave a message–I’ll call you back.)

And, before caller-ID? If I answered and it was a poll, I’d hang up immediately.

So, I’d say that you’re kinda describing me. :)
(Also, I’ll be voting for Romney, tomorrow. Only death will stop me.)

RedCrow on November 5, 2012 at 8:55 PM

Over the past couple of months, I’ve gotten over 100 calls from numbers I don’t know (including around twenty calls from one number, in particular).

I don’t answer calls from numbers I don’t know. (Leave a message–I’ll call you back.)

And, before caller-ID? If I answered and it was a poll, I’d hang up immediately.

So, I’d say that you’re kinda describing me.
(Also, I’ll be voting for Romney, tomorrow. Only death will stop me.)

RedCrow on November 5, 2012 at 8:55 PM

Same here… In fact they leave a voice mail saying that they are public polling… I have never answered a poll…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 9:09 PM

WaPo/ABC stacking the poll numbers again. But don’t worry, they have credibility. Just ask ‘em.

GarandFan on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 PM

A D+6 poll in a R+6 world is garbage.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Wa/po absee should take their poles &…….

wepeople on November 5, 2012 at 10:47 PM

Not sure how to parse all these polls but its not looking great for Romney….the release of his internal polling numbers were not any thing to feel comfortable about.

Good luck conservatives… you need lots of it tomorrow.I sure hope that Michael Barone is atleast 90% right.. but it does not look tht way to me.

nagee76 on November 5, 2012 at 10:49 PM

311 – 227, baby!

AshleyTKing on November 5, 2012 at 11:13 PM

nagee76 on November 5, 2012 at 10:49 PM

In what universe does Obama replicate his turnout advantage from 2008? Because with Romney’s advantage with independents, it appears that is what it will take for Obama to win.

We look at the Republican enthusiasm advantage that every poll shows – and we also look at the real numbers for early voting, absentee ballots, and registrations in every battleground state. In every state, Dems are under performing their 2008 numbers by a significant amount, and Republican numbers are up. This is why no one at this site believes that the Democrats can match their 2008 D+7 turnout advantage.

Add to that the Rasmussen and Gallup party affiliation numbers that show a 3-6% Republican advantage, and it becomes even more unlikely. At the moment the Republicans have a party affiliation advantage that exceeds 2010 by quite a bit.

Now, get your head out of Nate Silver’s arse, and join us here in the real world.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 11:14 PM

Me and AJsMommie and AJ are headed to pull the lever for Romney (well, AJ will watch as he’s done every election of his life, but he’ll be ready to vote when he’s of age)! We’re in one of the deepest blue of blue states, but we’re going to make our voices heard anyway. If we can knock our state down to single digits, it will really say something…

GO VOTE!

AJsDaddie on November 6, 2012 at 8:22 AM