Green Room

RNC memo: We’re pretty happy headed into Election Day

posted at 10:42 am on November 5, 2012 by

How does the ground game look to the RNC?  According to a new memo they’ve released, they’re pretty happy with the lay of the land so far:

The Obama camp has been firing off a number of memos in desperate attempt to convince the media (and themselves) that they’re not losing. What they aren’t telling you is this isn’t 2008; the numbers show we’re doing much better in early voting, and they are doing much worse.

But more importantly we are poised to blow the Obama campaign out on Election Day thanks to a superior GOTV program and a historical GOP Election Day advantage

In the four party-registration states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada), we are poised to win the Election Day vote by even greater margins than we did in 2008. That’s right, Jeremy Bird, we beat you on Election Day even in 2008.

This time around we have over 150,000 volunteers across the battleground who have already contacted over 53 million voters and expect to contact millions more from now until the polls close tomorrow night.

The Democrats have expended much energy to make the point that more Democrats than Republicans have voted early in some states. It makes sense that the same desperate campaign that made “revenge” their closing argument would make this ridiculous stat the central defense of their ground game. Republicans are an Election Day party. By and large, we vote on Election Day, and we vote in much larger numbers than Democrats.

Democrats’ problems are compounded because, as they fail to tell you, they are cannibalizing their Election Day voters. The great turnout operation they claim to have isn’t turning out enough new or sporadic voters; they’re largely getting their reliable voters to vote early instead of on Election Day.

The Republican strategy has been the reverse of the Democrats’. We have turned out our voters who aren’t as likely to come to the polls on Election Day, securing their votes during early voting. Now, all that remains to do is give our reliable voters the final reminder needed to get them to the polls Tuesday. And we have many more reliable voters left than the Democrats.

In Colorado there are over 26,000 (34%) more high-propensity Republican voters available than high-propensity Democrat voters. In Florida there are 166,000 (21%) more; 85,000 (47%) more in Iowa; and 16,000 (22%) more in Nevada.

And in Ohio, Republicans have 368,000 more high-propensity voters available than Democrats–72 percent more, in fact–and enough to off-set the Obama campaign’s most optimistic (and unrealistic) early vote math.

So, when you add it all up, the Democrats’ early vote advantage just isn’t big enough. Republicans will come out ahead, and Mitt Romney will claim victory. And our superior ground game will ensure that the margin of victory is even greater than these numbers would suggest.

The Obama campaign’s superior ground game is a myth. They claim they have double and triple the people and offices across the country, yet poll after poll has shown voters have been contacted equally if not more by the Romney campaign and the Republicans. It goes to show you what big government bureaucracy gets you.

I’m glad Democrats are so eager to talk about their ground game. The more they talk, the more they prove the numbers don’t add up.

It’s (ground) game over.

Not yet it’s not — not until tomorrow night.  Let’s hope that their optimism is not misplaced.

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Memos like this swing me from Eeyore to Giddy.

For like twenty minutes, and then it’s a straight shot back to Eeyore.

HURRY UP, TOMORROW!

Washington Nearsider on November 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

I live in Michigan and get all the robo calls from the Republicans…Palin, Santorum, Right to Life, etc.

Yesterday I got a call from a real person making calls for Obama. First contact with anyone associated with the Dems.

Not sure if they just ran out of people to contact (excellent ground game) or if they are desperate (call whoever you can!) or incompetently phoning Republicans (completely caught off guard and unorganized)…

I politely declined her invitation to vote for Mr. Obama by the way:)

jjjdad on November 5, 2012 at 11:06 AM

I don’t know how they can be happy if any of the polls are even close.

Obozo is just about the closest thing to what could be outlined as the worst president ever, and the RNC is happy to be running neck and neck with that?!?

Idiots.

KMC1 on November 5, 2012 at 11:10 AM

I don’t know how they can be happy if any of the polls are even close.

Obozo is just about the closest thing to what could be outlined as the worst president ever, and the RNC is happy to be running neck and neck with that?!?

Idiots.

KMC1 on November 5, 2012 at 11:10 AM

What the RNC is (correctly) pointing out is that the polls really aren’t showing what they (the polls) think they are showing.

Are we REALLY supposed to get worried about the CNN poll showing a tie when the internals are D+11??!!

As a former high school math teacher, let me assure you that the validity of a poll comes from it’s samples NOT based on who did the poll or what the results say.

And the RNC is (again, correctly) pointing out is that all of these “tied” polls are showing an exceptionally skewed sample.

When you adjust the samples to accurately reflect reality (a dampened Dem base and an invigorated and zealous Repub base)…

…what you find is that Romney is leading by a pretty wide margin (5-8%).

Religious_Zealot on November 5, 2012 at 11:17 AM

I don’t know how they can be happy if any of the polls are even close.

Obozo is just about the closest thing to what could be outlined as the worst president ever, and the RNC is happy to be running neck and neck with that?!?

Idiots.

KMC1 on November 5, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Are you really saying that winning isn’t even good enough?

I really think some people just like being miserable.

ChrisL on November 5, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Ok, KMC1 it’s obvious you’re a Democrat but, clearly what you’re missing is the fact that the RNC is saying it’s NOT close by the numbers that they have parsed. They seem to have disposed the polls and now rely on what the numbers are telling them. It’s close enough to Election day for them to have a very good reading on where Romney stands.

I’d call you an idiot BUT, good taste and upbringing prevents me from stating that.

DevilsPrinciple on November 5, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Are you really saying that winning isn’t even good enough?

ChrisL on November 5, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Winning isn’t good enough. This needs to be a rout, a beating, a hiding, a thrashing, a pasting, a drubbing…in short, an unforgettable humiliation of the SCOAMF.

Don’t settle for less.

ElectricPhase on November 5, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Winning isn’t good enough. This needs to be a rout, a beating, a hiding, a thrashing, a pasting, a drubbing…in short, an unforgettable humiliation of the SCOAMF.

Don’t settle for less.

ElectricPhase on November 5, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I would love that. I would love that just to see the media try and figure out what went wrong. I would love to see Barack try and choke down that America doesnt actually think he is the God-King.

That being said…I will absolutely settle for ‘just a win’

ChrisL on November 5, 2012 at 11:31 AM

My husband was an Obama volunteer in 2008. He can’t do anything political now because he has a state government job. He has nonetheless been called a few times by the Obama campaign to volunteer. He was called again yesterday and said it sounded desperate, they are still looking for last minute canvassers. This is in southeastern PA.

I have received five robocalls and one personal call from the Romney campaign, three calls from the RNC, tons of calls and mailings from the Faith and Freedom Coalition, a call from Citizens United, four mailings from the PA GOP, and on and on. Wayyyy more voter contacts going on here from the Right than the Left.

This is 100% reversed from 2008.

rockmom on November 5, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Update from WI. Barry & his buddy Bruce Springstein are in the people’s republic of Madison. Crowd is about 18k, same as the Katy Perry event in Milwaukee on Saturday. For comparison, lurch was here in 2004 with Bruce Springstein & that crowd was estimated at 80k.

fatigue on November 5, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Do Democrat high propensity voters only vote once?

Carnac on November 5, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Update from WI. Barry & his buddy Bruce Springstein are in the people’s republic of Madison. Crowd is about 18k, same as the Katy Perry event in Milwaukee on Saturday. For comparison, lurch was here in 2004 with Bruce Springstein & that crowd was estimated at 80k.

fatigue on November 5, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Plus, Madison’s not the far from Chicago, what, a couple of hours or so, so I assume they bused quite a few in?

TXUS on November 5, 2012 at 12:05 PM

I don’t know how they can be happy if any of the polls are even close.

Obozo is just about the closest thing to what could be outlined as the worst president ever, and the RNC is happy to be running neck and neck with that?!?

Idiots.

KMC1 on November 5, 2012 at 11:10 AM

So pal, answer this…

Romney is leading the independents by double digits, where the dems have held that position for decades…

Where are the dems going to get the lost votes from? What group will fill in that gap?

More minorities? More women? More businessmen? More retired?

Get it? There is no group to fill that void…those are lost votes, over 10%…and counting the swing from the last elections, 17% lost votes…

right2bright on November 5, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Whats with Larry Sabato predicting Obama wins…

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 1:12 PM

That being said…I will absolutely settle for ‘just a win’

“just a win” will be good…but might leave room for legal challenge, should Barry’s campaign so desire. An outright rout make any challenge to the results not as likely.

That being said, rather than a TKO, I’d prefer Romney floor Barry with a knockout punch.

hawkeye54 on November 5, 2012 at 2:36 PM