Green Room

Re: Happy

posted at 10:58 am on November 5, 2012 by

If you want a better look at why the RNC and Team Romney feel pretty cheery, check out Jim Geraghty’s latest communiqué from “Middle Cheese,” his Republican source.  The metrics look good in key states:

FL– Obama has a 60 percent drop off in early/absentee voting from 2008.

VA–  Obama has a 20 percent drop off early/absentee votes in counties they won in 2008.

OH — Obama under-performing in coal counties of OH.  Romney leading by double-digits over Obama in 21 our to last 24 polls among independents.

Bottom line?

Overall, Team Romney is extremely confident for several reasons:  1) a 5-7 point advantage on voter intensity, 2) a double digit lead among independents, 3) in D+9 polls, Obama can’t break 50 percent, 4) GOP matching or exceeding Obama in voter contacts (440,000 made in OH over the weekend).

The lead among independents is the key for me.  Democrats aren’t enthusiastic enough to get a base-turnout electorate like George Bush did in 2004 or Obama did in 2008.  With Republican enthusiasm up and independents breaking hard for Romney, I’d say that they have reason for optimism — but not certainty.

Recently in the Green Room:

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Optimistic no eeyore today

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 11:06 AM

36 hours til it’s official(well, at least on FoxNews).

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Optimistic no eeyore today

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 11:06 AM

I really want to be eeyoreish today… but they’re making it really hard.

Abby Adams on November 5, 2012 at 11:12 AM

3) in D+9 polls, Obama can’t break 50 percent

CNN couldn’t get Obama to 50% in their most recent D+11 poll.

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 11:14 AM

:) We’re “this” close to – President elect Romney and Vice President elect Ryan.

So close.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 11:17 AM

CNN couldn’t get Obama to 50% in their most recent D+11 poll.

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 11:14 AM

And keep in mind that the election will most likely be an R+1 to an R+5 and you can see why the RNC is almost giddy!.

In other words, if Obama is tied with a D+11, that means Romney’s ahead by over 10 points
with a more realistic R+1.

Still, it’s no time to get cocky, we still need to go out and finish this.

Religious_Zealot on November 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Completely unscientific but…we are a little liberal bastion in the sea of red that is central VA. Our local rag is liberal.

Check out the results so far.

donkichi on November 5, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Abby :)

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 11:25 AM

donkichi on November 5, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Check the results where?

Mimzey on November 5, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Must….maintain….hopelessness

29Victor on November 5, 2012 at 11:35 AM

LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Romney/Ryan are going to a +300 ECVictory. YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

WV. Paul on November 5, 2012 at 11:35 AM

I am very cofnident of Romney victory tomorrow. The metrics that determine the winner and loser are very much for Romney and against Obama. The first metric is voter intensity and at least 3% of Obama voters from 2008 are going to stay home in 2012. The second metric is the percentage of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 who would vote for Romney in 2012… At least 10% of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 are going to vote for Romney in 2012… Both of these metrics combined means that Romney is going to win tomorrow…

My final predicition: Romney 52%, Obama 47%…
Romney is going to win 290+ Electoral Votes…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Just did an informal poll of my office here in CO:

2008: Obama 8 McCain 5
2012: Romney 10 Obama 0

(3 people were laid off since 2008 due to the Obama recession)

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 11:52 AM

(3 people were laid off since 2008 due to the Obama recession)

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Apparently all Obama voters. LOL.

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Mimzey on November 5, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Unfortunately you have to click on “view results” for each poll.

donkichi on November 5, 2012 at 11:57 AM

I’ve been working at the GOP HQ, here in Martinsburg, making phone calls for the GOTV. Calling Repubs and Indies. One thing that I’ve found is very enthusiastic Repubs, who can’t wait to go vote Tuesday. Then when talking to the Indies, they are complete opposites of each other. One call they are VERY disgruntled, the next call very enthusiastic.

Every where I look, no one wants another 4yrs. of Oblamer. That is why I see a 1980 style Landslide in the making tomorrow. Polling for Reagan was down by -6% before his 40 state win. I predict deja vu, all over again.

WV. Paul on November 5, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Even more significant.

a capella on November 5, 2012 at 12:19 PM

I truly hope so. But I’m in full Eeyore mode. Doesn’t mean I won’t be taking up my spot in Project Orca tomorrow for the long hual. But I just don’t feel it.

Zaggs on November 5, 2012 at 12:19 PM

It’s already Tuesday where I live. Isn’t the election over yet?

My prediction: It’s going to be a bloodbath. Voters may say they are voting Obama, but when they get in the booth they will vote with their hearts and their wallets and vote for Romney. Then they will tell all of their liberal friends they voted for Obama. But secretly they will be happy that Obama is retired in Hawaii, where he belongs.

Plus we’ll get 50 in the Senate. And with VP Ryan as the deciding vote – Harry Reid can go pound sand for the next four years.

Timothy S. Carlson on November 5, 2012 at 12:58 PM