posted at 10:58 am on November 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
If you want a better look at why the RNC and Team Romney feel pretty cheery, check out Jim Geraghty’s latest communiqué from “Middle Cheese,” his Republican source. The metrics look good in key states:
FL– Obama has a 60 percent drop off in early/absentee voting from 2008.
VA– Obama has a 20 percent drop off early/absentee votes in counties they won in 2008.
OH — Obama under-performing in coal counties of OH. Romney leading by double-digits over Obama in 21 our to last 24 polls among independents.
Overall, Team Romney is extremely confident for several reasons: 1) a 5-7 point advantage on voter intensity, 2) a double digit lead among independents, 3) in D+9 polls, Obama can’t break 50 percent, 4) GOP matching or exceeding Obama in voter contacts (440,000 made in OH over the weekend).
The lead among independents is the key for me. Democrats aren’t enthusiastic enough to get a base-turnout electorate like George Bush did in 2004 or Obama did in 2008. With Republican enthusiasm up and independents breaking hard for Romney, I’d say that they have reason for optimism — but not certainty.
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