Green Room

Re: Gallup

posted at 1:46 pm on November 5, 2012 by

Guy, I am not at all surprised by that outcome.  However, I would point out that an incumbent at 48% the final day before the election has probably hit his ceiling — especially in this economic environment.  I’ll make that point in a later post about a couple of other polls, too.

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Gallup Final: 49-48 Romney among LVs. Keep in mind this is just 4 day track-two of which were very post-Sandy and big O days in other polls.

The momentum is going with Romney.

INC on November 5, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Yep, 48 seems to be the ceiling for Obama; and that is with unrealistic sample weights of D+4 or higher.

If actual turnout is closer to even (2004/2010); Obama will struggle to break 45/46.

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 1:49 PM

However, I would point out that an incumbent at 48% the final day before the election has probably hit his ceiling

Correct-a-mundo!

I’m looking at 50-48. Maybe 51-48 if the Paul/Johnson voters come home.

Man, keeping your inner Eeyore down is hard work…

JohnGalt23 on November 5, 2012 at 1:53 PM

A coin flip race. Yippee. I’m glad I’m working the polls tomorrow, so I’ll be away from a computer and all the early noise about lines, turnout, etc.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 1:54 PM

I’m glad I’m working the polls tomorrow, so I’ll be away from a computer and all the early noise about lines, turnout, etc.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Kudos to you! Make sure the Democrats don’t cheat, and write down every instance you hear about touch-screens that score a vote for Obama when the voter pushed the Romney button.

Steve Z on November 5, 2012 at 2:01 PM

You’re not kidding jg

My morning was great…..

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Man, keeping your inner Eeyore down is hard work…

JohnGalt23 on November 5, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Tomorrow we put Eeyore in a pasture of thistles.
The future belongs to Tigger!

topdog on November 5, 2012 at 2:06 PM

With the bias in polls I think a 47%-53% Romney win is closer to reality. In truth closer to 46%-54%, but I am allowing 1% for the dead and rigged polling booths.

WV. Paul on November 5, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Carville always said whatever the incumbent number is, that’s what he gets.

Conservative4ev on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Man, keeping your inner Eeyore down is hard work…

JohnGalt23 on November 5, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Haha, aint that the truth…tomorrow night can’t come fast enough.

nextgen_repub on November 5, 2012 at 2:13 PM

I have felt such a prisoner the last four years of this administration that I almost don’t believe tomorrow will come. Maybe Stockholm syndrome explains some of the polling results. Who knows, but the relief will be great when Romney wins.

txmomof6 on November 5, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Kudos to you! Make sure the Democrats don’t cheat, and write down every instance you hear about touch-screens that score a vote for Obama when the voter pushed the Romney button.

Steve Z on November 5, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Indeed.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 2:20 PM

And national polling is relevant how?

Carnac on November 5, 2012 at 2:22 PM

INC on November 5, 2012 at 1:48 PM

That was my very first thought. Obama got a Sandy bump which is likely almost gone by now, but certainly captured when they started polling people on Thursday. I’d be very interested to see their daily splits, I’m betting it looks something like:

Thursday: 49-47 Obama
Friday: 48-48
Saturday: 49-48 Romney
Sunday: 50-47 Romney

That would average out to the exact topline they’re showing.

And national polling is relevant how?

Carnac on November 5, 2012 at 2:22 PM

States vote on a pretty predictable continuum relative to the national vote. Popular vote/electoral college splits happen only when the NPV is incredibly close (<.5% margin). We're not going to see Romney win the popular vote by 2 points and lose the election.

LukeinNE on November 5, 2012 at 2:48 PM

I have felt such a prisoner the last four years of this administration that I almost don’t believe tomorrow will come. Maybe Stockholm syndrome explains some of the polling results. Who knows, but the relief will be great when Romney wins.

txmomof6 on November 5, 2012 at 2:17 PM

I agree. I have been waiting for tomorrow for four long, hard years.

INC on November 5, 2012 at 3:00 PM