Green Room

Final Gallup: 49/48 Romney

posted at 1:31 pm on November 5, 2012 by

Down from his five-point lead early last week, but still a small edge for the challenger:

Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport tells Bloomberg Businessweek that the release of Monday’s tracking poll, set for 1 p.m., will show Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49 percent to 48 percent among likely voters nationally.

So Obama gained two points, Romney dropped two, and now Gallup’s final margin is right in the ballpark of…virtually every single other pollster.  Rasmussen has it at 49/48 for Mitt, too.  Check out the closing trend on independents.

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That 48 is very likely where he will stay. 50-48, maybe 51-48. All depends on how Johnson does.

Down, Eeyore!! Down, I say!!

JohnGalt23 on November 5, 2012 at 1:35 PM

So is all this movement over the photo-ops for Sandy.

earlgrey133 on November 5, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Ok folks need to gotv

I don’t want to become an Eeyore today

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Check out the closing trend on independents.

I don’t know how Romney loses with leads like that among indies. Obama will need to outdo his ’08 turnout, which just doesn’t seem likely.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 1:38 PM

2012 will do to telephone polling what 2004 did to exit polling: irreparably discredit it. Either Romney is winning indies by 15+ points or the race is tied; it is impossible for both to be true.

Fabozz on November 5, 2012 at 1:38 PM

I think I’m having an anxiety attack. Dry mouth, heart racing.
We’re gonna win this..right???

bluealice on November 5, 2012 at 1:39 PM

So is all this movement over the photo-ops for Sandy.

earlgrey133 on November 5, 2012 at 1:37 PM

That, Christie slobbering all over him, and maybe Colin Powell. We’re talking mushy voters who change their mind as the wind blows, so a few days of hurricane stuff probably netted him a couple points.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Indys swinging back to Romney: Rasmussen (+17), CNN (+22), Monmouth (+16), ARG (+12).

If Romney wins independents by double digits (which EVERY poll today indicates), Romney wins the election.

Dems will have to outnumber Republicans by 2008 margins just to tie the race.

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 1:43 PM

We’re gonna win this..right???

bluealice on November 5, 2012 at 1:39 PM

We’re in a position to win. But it isn’t certain.

Make some calls for Mitt. You’ll feel better.

JohnGalt23 on November 5, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Here’s a paper bag. Slow deep breaths.

donkichi on November 5, 2012 at 1:46 PM

James Carville always said what ever the percentage the incumbent is at is what he finishes with.

Conservative4ev on November 5, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Romney is going to win

El_Terrible on November 5, 2012 at 1:47 PM

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Gallup Final: 49-48 Romney among LVs. Keep in mind this is just 4 day track-two of which were very post-Sandy and big O days in other polls.

The momentum is going with Romney.

INC on November 5, 2012 at 1:48 PM

I guess a wet kiss by Christie can turn a frog into a Prince. The same way he benefited Romney during the campaign, his magic dust worked on O too.

If Romney loses, is Christie to blame (a whole lot of dead meat) like Rupert claimed last week?

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 5, 2012 at 1:50 PM

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Gallup Final: 49-48 Romney among LVs. Keep in mind this is just 4 day track-two of which were very post-Sandy and big O days in other polls.

The momentum is going with Romney.

INC on November 5, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Also done on the weekend

Conservative4ev on November 5, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Make some calls for Mitt. You’ll feel better.

JohnGalt23 on November 5, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Thanks..I have. Fun..but now it’s truth time. There might be adult beverages in my future.

bluealice on November 5, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Thanks..I have. Fun..but now it’s truth time. There might be adult beverages in my future.

bluealice on November 5, 2012 at 1:52 PM

The beauty of the call-from-home program… there’s nobody there to judge you.

:-)

JohnGalt23 on November 5, 2012 at 1:55 PM

From Drudge.

donkichi on November 5, 2012 at 1:56 PM

Didn’t they have Romney up like +7 before? So much for momittum

Realclearblue on November 5, 2012 at 1:57 PM

I guess a wet kiss by Christie can turn a frog into a Prince. The same way he benefited Romney during the campaign, his magic dust worked on O too.

If Romney loses, is Christie to blame (a whole lot of dead meat) like Rupert claimed last week?

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 5, 2012 at 1:50 PM

There will be plenty of time for monday morning quarterbacking and all the rest after tomorrow should Romney lose, but it’s clear that Obama got a Sandy bump. And, imo, Christie’s over the top praise contributed to that.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Wow. Gallup and Ras gonna have some egg on their faces after being off by so much.

RedNewEnglander on November 5, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Geraghty has some encouraging news from ones of his political contacts. He has yet to post anything from Obi Wan.

Middle Cheese: The State of the Race, with 48 Hours to Go

Middle Cheese checks in, having talked to some of the Big Cheeses over at the Romney campaign:

He gives a state by state breakdown and MC concludes:

Overall, Team Romney is extremely confident for several reasons: 1) a 5-7 point advantage on voter intensity, 2) a double digit lead among independents, 3) in D+9 polls, Obama can’t break 50 percent, 4) GOP matching or exceeding Obama in voter contacts (440,000 made in OH over the weekend).

INC on November 5, 2012 at 2:02 PM

So Obama gained two points, Romney dropped two, and now Gallup’s final margin is right in the ballpark of…virtually every single other pollster.

No pollster wants to stick their neck out on this one. They are all calling it even.

Funny how all these polls with MoE’s ranging from about 2.5 to 4.5 have the race within one, isn’t it?

What a freakin’ coincidence.

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 2:03 PM

We’re gonna win this..right???

bluealice on November 5, 2012 at 1:39 PM

“Clear Eyes, FULL HEARTS, America Can’t Lose”

NOMOBO on November 5, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Rass just released final party idea – R+6

DUDE!

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 2:12 PM

If Romney loses, I blame Chris Christie. He deserves to go up at the top of Benedict Arnold Republicans who made critical errors at the worst possible time. Just like John Roberts. Christie is not a conservative, not a constitutionalist, and not a Republican.

timoric on November 5, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Gallup Final: 49-48 Romney among LVs. Keep in mind this is just 4 day track-two of which were very post-Sandy and big O days in other polls.

The momentum is going with Romney.

Concur. This still carries a couple of bad polling days for Romney due to Sandy.

matthew8787 on November 5, 2012 at 2:18 PM

“Clear Eyes, FULL HEARTS, America Can’t Lose”

NOMOBO on November 5, 2012 at 2:04 PM

There ya go. I’m all in..but still with adult beverages.

bluealice on November 5, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Rass just released final party idea – R+6

DUDE!

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Seriously?

matthew8787 on November 5, 2012 at 2:19 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
I dont think people understand that Rasmussen polls 15,000 people a month. Showing a flip from D+7 in 08 to R+6 today is no small thing.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Either Romney is winning indies by 15+ points or the race is tied; it is impossible for both to be true.

Correct. I’m still waiting to see how this turns out. The polls are showing a bimodal distribution. Something HAS to give.

Physics Geek on November 5, 2012 at 2:38 PM

2012 will do to telephone polling what 2004 did to exit polling: irreparably discredit it. Either Romney is winning indies by 15+ points or the race is tied; it is impossible for both to be true.

Fabozz on November 5, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Exactly, something isn’t right and we’ll find out on election night which one it is.

I’m thinking the cumulative effects of cell phones and caller ID are throwing a major monkey wrench into polling. We shall see.

jnelchef on November 5, 2012 at 2:38 PM

There ya go. I’m all in..but still with adult beverages.

bluealice on November 5, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Celebratory adult beverages, I presume.

NOMOBO on November 5, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Celebratory adult beverages, I presume.

NOMOBO on November 5, 2012 at 2:43 PM

But of course!!

bluealice on November 5, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Fabozz on November 5, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Yes. Look up “conservative nonresponse bias” in the political survey research literature. Studies show that it’s an increasing trend that didn’t manifest as much in 2008 because lots of conservatives stayed home, or crossed over due to ’08′s unique factors, but may show up in a significant way again this year.

Robert_Paulson on November 5, 2012 at 3:17 PM