Green Room

Bellwethers in Ohio and N.H. point to Romney win

posted at 8:32 pm on November 5, 2012 by

A fun bit of polling from Suffolk of towns and counties that usually get their presidential picks right, and get them near the right percentage:

In Lake County, Romney led Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with Independent Richard Duncan receiving 4 percent and Stewart Alexander (Socialist Party) receiving 1 percent, while 2 percent were undecided and 4 percent refused a response. Romney led 49 percent to 44 percent among those planning to cast ballots and led 43 percent to 41 percent among those who had already voted. Duncan, an Ohioan listed on the presidential ballot, received most of his support from voters who have already cast ballots for him in Lake County, causing neither major candidate to reach a decisive 50 percent there.

Lake is one of four Ohio counties that Obama flipped from the Bush column. This finding comes with the caveat that, though it’s been a bellwether, it has sometimes trended more Republican than the statewide vote.

Towns in New Hampshire:

Two New Hampshire towns, Epping and Milford, have mirrored the statewide New Hampshire vote in four out of four presidential elections going back to 1996. In Milford, Romney led Obama 51 percent to 46 percent and in Epping, a closer bellwether, Romney led Obama 49 percent to 47 percent.

Click the links for more from Jim Geraghty. Here’s the Suffolk history on these bellwethers. But, as with all things political, these are bellwethers until they’re, you know, not.

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Bishop,rook, queen and mate – Romney.

J-Paul00 on November 5, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Is that what this whole “bishop” thing is? Chess? I know, I’m lame- but all this time I thought it was some kind of homage to the actual poster “Bishop”. Sigh. It’s been such a long day.

BettyRuth on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Is that what this whole “bishop” thing is? Chess? I know, I’m lame- but all this time I thought it was some kind of homage to the actual poster “Bishop”. Sigh. It’s been such a long day.

BettyRuth on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 PM

I thought it was either that, or a reminder of the clergy betrayed by That One. (I know, I know, they should’ve known better than to trust him in the first place… but now we’re all on the same side.)

Mr. Prodigy on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 PM

If Obama is stuck in the mid 40s in Lake County :

President Romney

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Like those bellwethers…

tdau1997 on November 5, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Is that what this whole “bishop” thing is? Chess? I know, I’m lame- but all this time I thought it was some kind of homage to the actual poster “Bishop”. Sigh. It’s been such a long day.

BettyRuth on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 PM

I thought it was either that, or a reminder of the clergy betrayed by That One. (I know, I know, they should’ve known better than to trust him in the first place… but now we’re all on the same side.)

Mr. Prodigy on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 PM

“Bishop” refers to Joey Bishop. Those that followed the Rat Pack know that Joey Bishop always had a tendency to win any fair competition. Darts, billiards, beer pong, Minecraft griefing etc. that the group engaged in – he’d even beat Sinatra. As such Rat Pack fans around here tend to mention his name in the first post of threads because they “won” the first post thing.

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Hmmmmm, Joey Bishop. I think my mother use to watch him. ( heh )

BettyRuth on November 5, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Well, Romney was a Mormon bishop, you know…

Dirt McGirt on November 5, 2012 at 10:17 PM

s that what this whole “bishop” thing is? Chess? I know, I’m lame- but all this time I thought it was some kind of homage to the actual poster “Bishop”. Sigh. It’s been such a long day.

BettyRuth on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Election day, tomorrow. Now THAT will be a long day.

HiJack on November 5, 2012 at 10:37 PM

I went to bed last night with a bad case of the Eeyores. Today – totally different. You can just feel the momentum shifting back to Romney/Ryan.

I’m fired up and ready to do my job tomorrow – helping GOTV efforts by getting seniors to the polls.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 10:39 PM

To quote Shakepeare, “Will it never be morning?”

CrustyB on November 5, 2012 at 11:29 PM

The liberal reaction tonight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bquhDGjnD-M&feature=youtube_gdata_player

mitchellvii on November 6, 2012 at 5:42 AM

Romney will win big!

NH will stay red.

dogsoldier on November 6, 2012 at 5:43 AM

Is that what this whole “bishop” thing is? Chess? I know, I’m lame- but all this time I thought it was some kind of homage to the actual poster “Bishop”. Sigh. It’s been such a long day.

BettyRuth on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 PM

I’ll take a stab at it. This is an homage to the poster Bishop. He established a reputation as being the first poster on a thread a while back, but doesn’t do it much anymore. Now, it seems that the first poster will respond with “Bishop!” the way first posters on other sites make their post “First!” The chess reference was coincidental and akin to tennis’ game, set, and match.

Odysseus on November 6, 2012 at 5:50 AM

Here on planet Earth..

No poll since 10/31 showed Romney with a lead in OH- and, that was a single poll. Here is the latest/last:

Ipsos (online) 11/5 50.0 46.0 Obama +4.0
Gravis Marketing 11/5 49.0 48.0 Obama +1.0
SurveyUSA 11/4 49.0 44.0 Obama +5.0
U. of Cincin/Ohio Poll 11/4 50.0 48.5 Obama +1.5
PPP 11/4 52.0 47.0 Obama +5.0
Angus Reid 11/4 51.0 48.0 Obama +3.0
Rasmussen 11/4 49.0 49.0 Tie
Ipsos (online) 11/4 48.0 44.0 Obama +4.0
YouGov 11/3 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0
Ipsos (online) 11/3 46.0 45.0 Obama +1.0
Ipsos (online) 11/2 47.0 45.0 Obama +2.0
Grove 11/2 49.0 45.0 Obama +4.0
Columbus Dispatch 11/2 50.0 48.0 Obama +2.0
NBC/Marist 11/1 51.0 45.0 Obama +6.0
Ipsos (online) 11/1 47.0 45.0 Obama +2.0
Rasmussen 11/1 49.0 49.0 Tie
We Ask America 11/1 50.2 45.8 Obama +4.4
CNN/Opinion Research * 11/1 47.0 44.0 Obama +3.0

inklake on November 6, 2012 at 7:46 AM

Today, don’t rest easy in the comfort of your echo chamber. Venture into the breach and be a megaphone!

JonPrichard on November 6, 2012 at 7:54 AM

Obama – shoots hoops in Chicago
Romney – campaigns in Pennsylvania and Ohio

NY and NJ suffer

You know Romney would be there if he were president

can they please give him the reigns tomorrow?

audiotom on November 6, 2012 at 8:22 AM

Yeah Romney was awesome.. holding a campaign event in OH, and calling it a “benefit” for NY/NJ.

Stacked behind him were cans he brought for the photo-op, and they handed out campaign buttons.

Classy!

He deserves to lose, and he’s going to lose.

Anyone wanting to ‘conjecture’ otherwise, find me on Twitter. We may still have time to make it ‘interesting’.

inklake on November 6, 2012 at 12:13 PM