Bellwethers in Ohio and N.H. point to Romney win
posted at 8:32 pm on November 5, 2012 by Mary Katharine Ham
A fun bit of polling from Suffolk of towns and counties that usually get their presidential picks right, and get them near the right percentage:
In Lake County, Romney led Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with Independent Richard Duncan receiving 4 percent and Stewart Alexander (Socialist Party) receiving 1 percent, while 2 percent were undecided and 4 percent refused a response. Romney led 49 percent to 44 percent among those planning to cast ballots and led 43 percent to 41 percent among those who had already voted. Duncan, an Ohioan listed on the presidential ballot, received most of his support from voters who have already cast ballots for him in Lake County, causing neither major candidate to reach a decisive 50 percent there.
Lake is one of four Ohio counties that Obama flipped from the Bush column. This finding comes with the caveat that, though it’s been a bellwether, it has sometimes trended more Republican than the statewide vote.
Two New Hampshire towns, Epping and Milford, have mirrored the statewide New Hampshire vote in four out of four presidential elections going back to 1996. In Milford, Romney led Obama 51 percent to 46 percent and in Epping, a closer bellwether, Romney led Obama 49 percent to 47 percent.
Click the links for more from Jim Geraghty. Here’s the Suffolk history on these bellwethers. But, as with all things political, these are bellwethers until they’re, you know, not.