Minnesota in Play?
posted at 1:05 pm on November 4, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
John Hinderaker has a good rundown of the AFF poll showing Minnesota a one-point race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in the mid-40s range with just two days left in the race. He’s a little skeptical; I’m a lot skeptical, for a couple of reasons. First, there is the history of Minnesota, which speaks for itself: we’re the only state to never have voted for Ronald Reagan despite two landslide wins. AFF is a conservative group, which doesn’t make their poll wrong, but does make it less than independent. Finally, the marriage amendment on the ballot Tuesday has provided energy to the liberals in the core Twin Cities counties, which will probably drive up what had been flagging enthusiasm, and those votes are going to Obama as well as to opposing the marriage amendment.
However, John notes that Bill Clinton’s sudden investment in time and energy in our state speaks to Democratic nervousness about the state’s direction, so it’s not going to be a runaway, either. While that may not be enough to say that Minnesota will finally turn red, it’s a pretty good indicator that Wisconsin will be even closer than Democrats like, as our neighbor has been more Republican in national elections than we have been over the last three or four cycles. Keep an eye on Minnesota on Tuesday, but keep a closer eye on Wisconsin.
Update: A commenter reminds me that Wisconsin actually broke harder for Obama in 2008 than Minnesot did, but otherwise I was correct about the last few presidential cycles.