RE: Marist Poll In Ohio
posted at 3:45 pm on November 3, 2012 by Duane Patterson
Ed already gave you all you really need to know about the D+9 sample, but I know you conservatives. I understand your DNA. You are probably looking for any indication the election is going to get away from us, and you’re getting a head start on your 96 hour panic now. Let me see if I can help walk you in from the ledge.
In 2008, one of John McCain’s closing campaign stops was in Cleveland, Ohio. It happened to be at the same venue Barack Obama used last night (h/t John Nolte over at Breitbart). John McCain drew a crowd of 4,200 people. Barack Obama? 2,800. The same night, Romney/Ryan drew 30,000 people in West Chester.
So in order to believe the Marist poll, that Obama is up over the margin of error, you have to believe that the intensity level for Obama by party ID is higher now than it was in 2008. You have to believe that the swing from 2008 to 2010, where party ID went from D+8 to R+1, resulting in the election of a Republican governor, a Republican Senator, and control of the state house, all that has not only vanished, but recoiled even further in Obama’s direction. You have to believe that the crowd of 80,000 Obama drew in 2008 in Cleveland the closing days of the campaign demonstrates less energy and passion for their candidate than the 4,000 did this morning. You have to believe that the 30,000 people last night at the Romney/Ryan rally shows less enthusiasm for their candidate than the 4,200 did in 2008 for John McCain. You have to believe that Michael Barone, a man who you can introduce yourself to and tell him where you’re from, and he’ll tell you who won your Congressional district in 1966 from memory, is wrong when he reads that Cuyahoga County, long a Democratic stronghold in the Buckeye State, is way off in party registration. He’s also wrong when reports for early voting tend to favor Mitt Romney, and favor him big. You also have to believe that Ohio Catholics and values voters don’t care about the HHS regulations. You also have to believe that Ohio, an energy state, doesn’t care about energy production.
If your belief is that great, you have greater faith in Eeyore than I do.
Marist – Mostly Assuming Republicans Invisible Sounds True.