Green Room

RE: Marist Poll In Ohio

posted at 3:45 pm on November 3, 2012 by

Ed already gave you all you really need to know about the D+9 sample, but I know you conservatives. I understand your DNA. You are probably looking for any indication the election is going to get away from us, and you’re getting a head start on your 96 hour panic now. Let me see if I can help walk you in from the ledge.

In 2008, one of John McCain’s closing campaign stops was in Cleveland, Ohio. It happened to be at the same venue Barack Obama used last night (h/t John Nolte over at Breitbart). John McCain drew a crowd of 4,200 people. Barack Obama? 2,800. The same night, Romney/Ryan drew 30,000 people in West Chester.

So in order to believe the Marist poll, that Obama is up over the margin of error, you have to believe that the intensity level for Obama by party ID is higher now than it was in 2008. You have to believe that the swing from 2008 to 2010, where party ID went from D+8 to R+1, resulting in the election of a Republican governor, a Republican Senator, and control of the state house, all that has not only vanished, but recoiled even further in Obama’s direction. You have to believe that the crowd of 80,000 Obama drew in 2008 in Cleveland the closing days of the campaign demonstrates less energy and passion for their candidate than the 4,000 did this morning. You have to believe that the 30,000 people last night at the Romney/Ryan rally shows less enthusiasm for their candidate than the 4,200 did in 2008 for John McCain. You have to believe that Michael Barone, a man who you can introduce yourself to and tell him where you’re from, and he’ll tell you who won your Congressional district in 1966 from memory, is wrong when he reads that Cuyahoga County, long a Democratic stronghold in the Buckeye State, is way off in party registration. He’s also wrong when reports for early voting tend to favor Mitt Romney, and favor him big.  You also have to believe that Ohio Catholics and values voters don’t care about the HHS regulations. You also have to believe that Ohio, an energy state, doesn’t care about energy production.

If your belief is that great, you have greater faith in Eeyore than I do.

Marist – Mostly Assuming Republicans Invisible Sounds True.

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Oh thank you, that ledge was getting cold!

BettyRuth on November 3, 2012 at 3:50 PM

To borrow from another commenter: it’s pure pollsh*t!!!

Lord of the Wings on November 3, 2012 at 3:57 PM

The only panic I have is getting enough champagne and fireworks for the 6th around 10pm EST.

Live in MA and going up to Manchester, NH for the final Romney/Ryan Victory Rally on the 5th (with Kid Rock no less) so I can get the fireworks then; I’ll get the champagne up there too – no taxes!

LIVE FREE OR DIE!

GreatCommunicator on November 3, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Let me repost what I said earlier…

in the entire 2012 campaign, NBC Marist has shown a Mitt Romney lead in only ONE STATE POLL — North Carolina a few days after the first debate.

NBC has had zero signs of Mitt up in NC, Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Maine’s 2nd CD

All of the above at some point have had a Mitt is leading poll. Not NBC.

That tells me all I need to know

pamplonajack on November 3, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Wonderful! Thank you.

thatsafactjack on November 3, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Ok, still on edge, but feeling less like jumping off now in Ohio.

SteveInRTP on November 3, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Same story in Colorado.

Obama leads in the poll average for CO; both Nate Silver and InTrade both predict Obama will win Colorado.

YET:

1. Republicans has a clear lead in early voting.
2. 80% off all votes cast in ’08 was early votes.
3. Republicans always win among those who vote on Election Day.

So unless all Obama wins independents in a landslide, CO is already lost for him.

So since state polls/Nate Silver/InTrade is way off on CO, what makes you think they are right about ANY battleground state?

Norwegian on November 3, 2012 at 4:13 PM

You have to believe that Michael Barone, a man who you can introduce yourself to and tell him where you’re from, and he’ll tell you who won your Congressional district in 1966 from memory, is wrong when he reads that Cuyahoga County, long a Democratic stronghold in the Buckeye State, is way off in party registration.

I’m so disillusioned. All this time I thought Barone could tell you how your precinct voted!

:)

INC on November 3, 2012 at 4:15 PM

..from Duane Patterson, smartest street-politics guy going.

(Sincere sentiment; not a sarc tag in sight!)

Also note that this is a gummed-person-free-zone, so set your response-o-matics on “IGNORE”.

The War Planner on November 3, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Sorry, but President-Elect Romney is the only person who can talk me off the ledge! :)

ThePrez on November 3, 2012 at 4:28 PM

I was shocked when I read Obama was speaking to 2,800 in Hilliard, OH. In 2008 I lived near there and 2,800 would have been the number camped out in freezing rain overnight to get standing spots close to their Messiah.

I exaggerate, but only a little which is the crazy thing.

jarodea on November 3, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Something tells me Romney has been ahead in OH for at least three weeks. When he had that 10K+ rally in CO (new web ad about this just came out), this is when Romney knew he could win. He stood aside for a moment and said a prayer. He could be overheard a moment later saying “This is really going to happen!” under his breath. I think CO clinched the 270 he needed. Since that day, he has campaigned in WI and PA. He’s gotten ads in MN. He’s sent Ann to MI. And has continued to campaign in IA and NH. He’s moving into blue states. Seriously, if that doesn’t say it all, I don’t know what does. Obama has sent the Big Dog into PA for 4 events on Monday and Obama will go there as well.

Then if you look where Romney is going in OH, he’s going into the cities. You do that when you’ve got the margin and want to make it bigger. He wants to get all conservatives in the cities to come out to narrow the Dem advantage in those cities. That is fatal to Obama right there. And Romney didn’t pick small venues either. He’s expecting big turnout.

From what I’ve read, NV is still possible for Romney. It’ll be tough, but if the turnout isn’t what it was in 2008 for Dems, Obama may well lose. Check out this map if you want to see what losing NV does to Obama. Note OH and PA.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgdi

Obama is against a wall.

MrX on November 3, 2012 at 4:37 PM

I keep going on and off the ledge… Confident that Romney’s got this, then see a few HuffPo headlines and begin to despair. But I keep going back to the crowds Romney and Obama have been drawing – they are as indicative as the polling, I would say.

As if worrying about a loss isn’t enough. I even worry about a win. With all this “Advatage O” floating about in the MSM, imagine the rage and shouts of “STOLEN!!” and “RACIST!!” I fear riots will ensue…

But I will take that over 4 more years of Obama.

outwestdownsouth on November 3, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Howard Portnoy left for this?

I don’t want feel-good love-strokes. What are you going to say if HopeyChangey wins? What kind of articles will you write then?

Seriously, when your stated purpose is to make conservatives feel good what are you going to say when they need to be kept in line?

Perhaps you’re just doing your best Dick Morris impersonation.

Capitalist Hog on November 3, 2012 at 5:18 PM

But I will take that anything over 4 more years of Obama.

Capitalist Hog on November 3, 2012 at 5:19 PM

For those of you who understand the science of polling, why is this poll less legitimate than the poll giving Romney a 6 point lead in Florida? I’m not as confident as many of the readers here about Romney and maybe someone could tell me why I should consider otherwise. Thanks.

stuartm650 on November 3, 2012 at 5:30 PM

If Romney pulls this out in spite of the polls, it’s the end of polls as we know it. How can they be believed if ALL of their samples were so far off? They can’t all really be that inaccurate in their profession, can they? This is why I climbed out on the ledge yesterday and I’m still there.

And actually, I’ve gone into tinfoil hat mode where the pollsters are assuming massive vote fraud to achieve the D+x turnouts. I really believe no matter what that Romney wins the real vote by 7-11%, but that voter fraud could be that massive.

On a slightly different “If, then it’s the end of” tip: if Romney serves for the next 4 years, it’s the end of the Democrat narrative of the last 12 years.

321mdl on November 3, 2012 at 5:46 PM

stuartm650 on November 3, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Sample weight by Party ID. That OH poll is D+9. OH was D+4 in 2008; R+4 in 2004.

So Marist wants you to believe Dems will turn out with greater enthusiasm in 2012 than at the height of Hopenchange in 2008.

Fat chance

Norwegian on November 3, 2012 at 5:48 PM

I’m having a small celebratory dinner at my home election night. All my liberals friends are invited and yes I’m serving crow.

2Tru2Tru on November 3, 2012 at 6:01 PM

For those of you who understand the science of polling, why is this poll less legitimate than the poll giving Romney a 6 point lead in Florida? I’m not as confident as many of the readers here about Romney and maybe someone could tell me why I should consider otherwise. Thanks.

stuartm650 on November 3, 2012 at 5:30 PM

The best option is to read Jay Cost’s twitter. Long story short, lots of new no name pollsters doing lots of polls and media outlets short of money and very very low poll response rates have caused absurd likely voter screens to be used so as to make the polls cheaper.

The second is a major issue, many polls are letting 70-90% of adults through their likely voter screens when only 55% or so will actually vote. That always favors Democrats and indeed Romney’s margin up or down is directly related to the share of adults a poll lets through their Likely Voter screen.

Gallup, Pew, Rasmussen, and ABC/WP are the best, PPP, NBC/Marist, and various no name ones are thee worst.

jarodea on November 3, 2012 at 6:06 PM

As for the poll showing Romney up 6 in FL, I can’t find the methodology but it was done by Mason-Dixon. They’re very good.

jarodea on November 3, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Capitalist Hog on November 3, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Feel free to leave.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 6:29 PM

You have a better chance finding Bigfoot, than the elusive ’08 McCain voter who has changed his vote to Obama in ’12

Tater Salad on November 3, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Thanks Duane!

AshleyTKing on November 3, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Feel free to leave.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Leave what?

I’m not libs who claim they will leave when a conservative is in office. I will stay here an fight O for another four years if he’s elected.

Fortunately, I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Here’s a tip, never run. Fight. That’s what real Americans do.

You may leave when your Savior O is elected.

Capitalist Hog on November 3, 2012 at 7:01 PM

You have to believe that Michael Barone, a man who you can introduce yourself to and tell him where you’re from, and he’ll tell you who won your Congressional district in 1966 from memory…

George Miller followed by George Miller. Since his son stuffed millions in his pocket from green energy ‘loans’, no doubt when George Miller gives up his seat he will be replaced by George Miller.

Freddy on November 3, 2012 at 8:30 PM

My dear wife of 60 years has never paid attention to politics until this year. She watches Fox News almost 24 hours a day. I’m going to show this to her so maybe she’ll come off the ledge. Thank you for this wonderful insight because she’s going to catch pneumonia out there.

Herb on November 3, 2012 at 8:53 PM

My dear wife of 60 years

AWESOME!

Capitalist Hog on November 3, 2012 at 9:18 PM

My dear wife of 10 years has probably never voted for a Repub in her life; but she listens to Rush now so it’s all good. Still, we live in deep blue land, depressing as it is.

Xasprtr on November 3, 2012 at 9:42 PM

You have to believe that the crowd of 80,000 Obama drew in 2008 in Cleveland the closing days of the campaign demonstrates less energy and passion for their candidate than the 4,000 did this morning.

Actually, that would be 2800 . . . just sayin’!

Progressive Heretic on November 3, 2012 at 10:07 PM

Sheesh

The polls and NBC are just trying to perk up the OBama vote—come out and vote for the winner–and suppress Romney vote–he’s gonna lose so why bother.

It’s a game. Only a game.

MaggiePoo on November 3, 2012 at 10:07 PM

The best option is to read Jay Cost’s twitter. Long story short, lots of new no name pollsters doing lots of polls and media outlets short of money and very very low poll response rates have caused absurd likely voter screens to be used so as to make the polls cheaper.

The second is a major issue, many polls are letting 70-90% of adults through their likely voter screens when only 55% or so will actually vote. That always favors Democrats and indeed Romney’s margin up or down is directly related to the share of adults a poll lets through their Likely Voter screen.

Gallup, Pew, Rasmussen, and ABC/WP are the best, PPP, NBC/Marist, and various no name ones are thee worst.

jarodea on November 3, 2012 at 6:06 PM

This Marist poll has 94% of the registers voters likely to vote. The last WAPO poll hat 79% or respondents likely voters.

Animal60 on November 3, 2012 at 10:07 PM

Marist – Mostly Assuming Republicans Invisible Sounds True.

Mendaciously Assessing Republican Intensity Support and Turnout.

Basilsbest on November 4, 2012 at 6:54 AM

Marist is just north of NYC. I think the phone lines got twisted in the storm and they just called a bunch of people they knew, and none of them were “voting for Nixon.”

Fleuries on November 4, 2012 at 2:04 PM